关键词: 舆情传播, 风险感知, 前景理论, 优化调度

Abstract: According to the particularity of emergency resource scheduling problem under the background of possible panic buying behavior resulted from public opinion propagation, the specific characteristics of the emergency resource scheduling problem are firstly described and analyzed by applying the approach of multi-case study. The results show that this problem is an optimal scheduling problem characterized by capacity expansion, multi-supply points, multi-distribution centers, multi-demand points, and multi-resource flows. Then, through considering the public's bounded rationality, the public's risk perception behavior is described, and the reservation supply rate is defined based on prospect theory to represent the preferential behavior of decision-makers when managing the public's risk perception behavior. Next, supply condition of resources of the public recalled is denoted using fuzzy theory. In addition, taking into account the capacity expansion of supply points and distribution centers simultaneously, a 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear fuzzy programming model (0-1MINFPM) for emergency optimal scheduling of multi-resource flows is proposed. Finally, The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 is taken as an example to verify the validity of this study and test the influence of decision-makers' preferential behavior on optimal scheduling scheme. The studies find that the emergency resource scheduling system is likely to has the different minimum total costs, the different optimal capacity expansion plans and the different optimal scheduling results under the different preferential behaviors of decision-makers.

Key words: public opinion propagation, risk perception, prospect theory, optimal scheduling