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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 140-149.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0986

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于公众偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策质量动态演化研究

徐选华1,2, 马志鹏2, 陈晓红1,2   

  1. 1.湖南工商大学前沿交叉学院，湖南 长沙410205； 2.中南大学商学院，湖南 长沙410083
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-07 修回日期:2020-04-12 出版日期:2022-08-05 发布日期:2022-08-05
  • 通讯作者: 徐选华(1963-)，男(汉族)，江西人，中南大学商学院，教授，博士生导师,研究方向：决策理论与方法、风险分析与应急管理，Email:xuxh@csu.edu.cn. E-mail:xuxh@csu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71971217);国家自然科学基金资助基础科学中心项目(72088101);国家自然科学基金资助重大项目(72091515,71790615)

Dynamic Evolution Research on Emergency Decision Quality of Large Group Based on the Public Preferences Big Data

XU Xuan-hua1,2, MA Zhi-peng2, CHEN Xiao-hong1,2   

  1. 1. School of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies,Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205;2. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
  • Received:2019-07-07 Revised:2020-04-12 Online:2022-08-05 Published:2022-08-05
  • Contact: 徐选华 E-mail:xuxh@csu.edu.cn

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摘要： 针对突发事件大群体应急决策质量及其影响因素的问题，探讨了公众参与视角下突发事件演化的全生命周期，以及各阶段下公众风险感知对应急决策质量的影响，并以“8·12天津港爆炸”为背景案例进行分析。首先，阐述了公众偏好大数据的获取及处理方式，并以此对“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的公众偏好大数据进行预处理和可视化；其次，通过TF-IDF算法提取并量化公众风险感知，建立大群体应急决策质量打分函数，衡量不同阶段的应急决策质量；最后，基于“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的微博数据进行大群体应急决策质量的动态演化分析，得出研究结论和启示。实证表明，所提的模型与方法具有较新颖的研究视角，能够为大数据背景下的应急响应和政府决策提供理论支持和方法辅助。

关键词: 大群体决策；应急决策质量；风险感知；偏好大数据

Abstract: In recent years, more and more emergencies have severely affected our economic construction and social development, which urgently needs larger-scale expert wisdom experience to improve the quality of emergency decision-making for large groups. At the same time, with the rapid development and popularization of the Internet, emergencies will arouse the enthusiastic attention and discussion of the public, whose opinions and emotions will be transmitted through big data. While increasing the risk of events, it will also provide new opportunities for emergency decisions analysis and information channels. Therefore, through theoretical analysis and experimental research, research is conducted on the influencing factors and dynamic evolution of the large group emergency decision quality, in order to find methods to improve the large group emergency decision quality. Based on the real case data of “8.12 Tianjin Port Explosion”, the dynamic evolution process of the large group emergency decision quality is characterized and evaluated, and further empirical tests are made on the influencing factors obtained from the previous theoretical analysis. Different information diffusion models provide a new research entry point for traditional large-group theory research and methods. This article extracts and quantifies public risk perception by capturing big data on public big data during emergencies, and then from the level of public participation guided and evaluated the dynamic evolution process of the large group emergency decision quality, re-examined the impact of decision hesitation on the large group emergency decision quality, and put forward corresponding management countermeasures based on the research conclusions.

Key words: large group decision making; emergency decision quality; risk perception; preferences big data

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