消费者预期后悔下软件企业定价模式选择

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.0349

Abstract

Abstract:

Software products are typically marketed through either one-time sales or subscription-based leasing， and the choice between these distribution models is profoundly influenced by consumer behavioral characteristics. Consumers often face significant perceived uncertainty about a software product’s ability to deliver its expected utility. This uncertainty inherently creates a risk of product-consumer mismatch， which readily triggers anticipatory regret. Consequently， such anticipated regret profoundly influences consumers’ purchase decisions. The theory of anticipated regret offers a behavioral lens to understand how pre-purchase expectations of negative outcomes influence choices. Accordingly， both value uncertainty in software products and the psychological aspect of consumer anticipated regret are incorporated. A two-stage game-theoretic model is developed to examine the optimal sales strategy under both one-time sales and leasing models. Key findings include：（1） As regret aversion sensitivity increases， total corporate profit declines under both sales models； conversely， as matching probability rises， profits increase under both models. （2） Higher matching probability inclines firms toward the leasing model， whereas increased regret aversion sensitivity favors the sales model. （3） Under dual influences of uncertainty and anticipated regret， both consumer surplus and social welfare are higher under the sales model than under the leasing model. These findings provide practical insights for software firms seeking to optimize their sales mode selection in response to consumer anticipated regret and matching risk.

Key words: selling and leasing, anticipatory regret, product matching, pricing strategy

CLC Number:

F272

Xing Gao,Shihui Gu,Boyuan Zhong. Pricing Model Selection for Software Firms under Consumer Anticipated Regret[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(11): 142-150.

Figures/Tables 7

参数	内涵说明
$γ$	消费者后悔厌恶敏感系数 $(0 < γ < 1)$
$θ$	消费者与软件产品的匹配概率 $(0 < θ < 1)$
$v i$	第 $i$ 阶段消费者的无差异点 $(i = 1,2)$
$p i$	售卖模式下企业在第 $i$ 阶段的价格 $(i = 1,2)$
$r 1$	租赁模式下企业在第一阶段的价格
$r 2 i$	租赁模式下企业在第二阶段匹配或不匹配时的价格 $(i = θ, 1 - θ)$
$N 1$	企业在售卖或租赁模式下的第一阶段消费者数量
$N 2 i$	租赁模式下第二阶段成功匹配或未成功匹配时的消费者数量 $(i = θ, 1 - θ)$
$π i$	企业在售卖或租赁模式下的总利润 $(i = S, L)$

情形	决策变量	均衡解
后悔购买	无差异点	$v 1 * = 3 - 2 γ (1 - θ) 5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)$	$v 2 * = v 1 2$
	价格	$p 1 * = θ [3 - 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 2 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)]$	$p 2 * = θ [3 - 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)]$
	消费者数量	$N 1 * = 2 [1 - γ (1 - θ)] 5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)$	$N 2 * = 3 - 2 γ (1 - θ) 2 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)]$
	企业利润	$π S * = θ [3 - 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 4 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ)]$
后悔不购买	无差异点	$v 1 * = 3 + 2 γ (1 - θ) 5 + 4 γ (1 - θ)$	$v 2 * = v 1 2$
	价格	$p 1 * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 2 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ)]$	$p 2 * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ)]$
	消费者数量	同后悔购买情形
	企业利润	$π S * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ)] 2 4 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ)]$

情形	决策变量	均衡解
后悔购买	无差异点	$v 1 * = 3 - 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ 5 - 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ$	$v 2 * = v 1 2$
	价格	$r 1 * = θ [3 - 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ] 2 2 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$	$r 2 θ * = θ 2$ $r 2 (1 - θ) * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ] 2 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$
	消费者数量	$N 1 * = 2 [1 - γ (1 - θ)] 5 - 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ$	$N 2 θ * = 12$ $N 2 (1 - θ) * = 3 - 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ 2 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$
	企业利润	$π L * = θ [9 - 4 γ (1 - θ) [3 - γ (1 - θ)] - θ] 4 [5 - 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$
后悔不购买	无差异点	$v 1 * = 3 + 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ 5 + 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ$	$v 2 * = v 1 2$
	价格	$r 1 * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ] 2 2 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$	$r 2 θ * = θ 2$ $r 2 (1 - θ) * = θ [3 + 2 γ (1 - θ) - θ] 2 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$
	消费者数量	同后悔购买情形
	企业利润	$π L * = θ [9 + 4 γ (1 - θ) [3 + γ (1 - θ)] - θ] 4 [5 + 4 γ (1 - θ) - θ]$

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Pricing Model Selection for Software Firms under Consumer Anticipated Regret

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