基于韧性和社会福利的应急医疗物资供应链均衡优化

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0555

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

应急医疗物资是在突发事件中保障人民生命安全的重要物资，突发事件频发使其供应链中断的风险不断提高，严重影响了人们的生产活动和生命安全，提高其供应链的韧性迫在眉睫。本文构建了由供应商—制造商—需求市场构成的三级应急医疗物资供应链，利用SEIR传染病动力学模型进行需求预测，并通过多源采购和安全库存两种策略在供应链中预嵌韧性；同时考虑环境污染、资源消耗和政府补贴等社会福利因素，以最小化系统期望总成本和最大化需求总满足率构建双目标混合整数规划模型。探讨在考虑不同等级突发事件的情境下，具有韧性的应急医疗物资供应链各供应设施的选址和产量、设施间的供应关系及物流量、制造商的安全库存持有量及使用量；并通过算例、对比分析和敏感性分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明：相对仅以期望总成本为导向的供应链网络结构，本文所构建的供应链将需求总满足率提高了16.84%，但期望总成本仅提高了2.10%；同时在应对突发公共卫生事件时具有更强的韧性。

关键词: 应急医疗物资, 供应链建模, 韧性, 社会福利

Abstract:

Emergency medical supplies are important materials to guarantee people's life safety in emergencies. Frequent public emergencies increase the risk of the interruption of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， seriously impacting people's work and life safety. The immediate reason of supply chain disruption is the explosion of downstream demand for emergency medical supplies caused by public emergencies， and the root cause is the cost-oriented supply chain design of the enterprises， i.e.， reduction in inventory and highly concentrated raw material procurement by only a few enterprises for cost reduction. Therefore， it is imperative to improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， such as by increasing redundancy and multi-source procurement.In the context of infectious public health emergencies， this paper constructs a three-level supply chain of emergency medical supplies， consisting of suppliers， manufacturers and market demand. The SEIR dynamics model is used to forecast the demand for emergency medical supplies， and resilience is embedded in its supply chain through multi-source procurement and increased redundancy. Meanwhile， considering the impact of the supply chain on social welfare， environmental pollution， resource consumption， government subsidies and other factors are quantified to constitute the total cost of the supply chain. Via mathematical modeling， a dual-objective mixed-integer programming model is constructed to take into account of both resilience and cost. The model minimizes the total expected cost and maximizes the total satisfaction rate of demand， aiming at solving the network design of the supply chain of emergency medical materials supply chain. The dual-objective model is then converted to a single-objective model by the weighted-sum method， and the weight parameter is used to indicate the degree of emphasis on resilience and cost in decision-making. Finally， the validity of the model is verified via simulation， comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis.The results indicate that compared with the cost-oriented supply chain， the supply chain model presented in this paper increases the total demand satisfaction by 16.84% while the expected total cost only increases by 2.10%. It also shows stronger resilience under public health emergencies. Additionally， it is found that the manufacturers should keep the minimum logistics volume with the resilient-oriented auxiliary supplier when maintaining main logistics with the cost-oriented dominant supplier. Significant emergency medical supplies should be kept in the highest inventory to cope with demand fluctuations within a small and medium range. In addition， the supply chain still needs to pay the cost to set up a sufficient reserve capacity to tackle wide demand fluctuations. The model presented in this paper can effectively improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies with while taking cost into account and provide suggestions for the design of a resilient supply chain of emergency medical supplies.

Key words: emergency medical supplies, supply chain modeling, resilience, social welfare

中图分类号:

R197

孙莹,刘慧萍,颜瑞, 等. 基于韧性和社会福利的应急医疗物资供应链均衡优化[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(8): 132-141.

Ying SUN,Hui-ping LIU,Rui YAN, et al. Equilibrium Optimization of the Supply Chain of Emergency Medical Supplies Based on Resilience and Social Welfare[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(8): 132-141.

图/表 12

图1

图2

图3

表1

需求市场状态变量的初始值 (人)"

名称	$S 1$	$E 1$	$I 1$
需求市场1	59956	368	32
需求市场2	68845	141	16
需求市场3	77316	277	24
需求市场4	86058	183	11

表1

图4

表2

表3

模型对比分析结果"

名称		供应链总成本 $T C$ /元	需求总满足率 $T S R$ /%
发生情境1	传统供应链	76213287.50	80.00
发生情境1	本文供应链	130331375.00	85.98
发生情境5	传统供应链	1367005316.70	80.00
发生情境5	本文供应链	1651186550.00	100.00

表3

表4

权重参数α敏感性分析结果1"

$α$	$e T C$ /%	$e T S R$ /%	$z$
0.1	11.52	0.50	0.0160
0.2	5.16	1.39	0.0214
0.3	3.53	1.84	0.0235
0.4	3.40	1.91	0.0251
0.5	2.10	3.10	0.0260
0.6	0.76	4.58	0.0229
0.7	0.30	5.32	0.0181
0.8	0.30	5.32	0.0131
0.9	0.30	5.32	0.0080

表4

表5

权重参数α敏感性分析结果2"

$α$	$T S R$ /%	$T C$ /元
0.1	99.50	199460165.00
0.2	98.61	188082179.00
0.3	98.16	185170224.00
0.4	98.09	184940158.00
0.5	96.90	182610608.00
0.6	95.42	180215577.00
0.7	94.68	179398868.00
0.8	94.68	179391610.00
0.9	94.68	179385965.00

表5

图5

图6

图7

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名称	主导供应商	辅助供应商
制造商1	供应商1	供应商2
制造商2	供应商2	供应商4
制造商3	供应商3	供应商4
制造商4	供应商3	供应商1

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