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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    31 October 2007, Volume 15 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Study of Shanghai Stock Index with Survival Analysis and Change Point Theory
    LEI Ming, TAN Chang-chun, MIAO Bai-qi
    2007, 15 (5):  1-8. 
    Abstract ( 2517 )   PDF (1030KB) ( 7277 )   Save
    In this paper,the successive rises and falls of Shanghai stock index returns are analyzed by survival analysis and change point theory. The distributions of the successive rises and falls of returns are fitted with Gamma distribution. It shows the stock market has the memory and does not follow the random walk hypothesis. The parameters change when the stock market changes,and the two parameters properly reflect the changes of bull and bear markets,also the fluctuations of the market.With the change point theory,we analyze the change of the stock market,and draw some meaningful conclusions.
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    Weighted Realized Bipower Variation of Financial Volatility and Its Application
    LI Sheng-ge, ZHANG Shi-ying
    2007, 15 (5):  9-15. 
    Abstract ( 2397 )   PDF (2635KB) ( 3038 )   Save
    Volatility is a hottopic in financial research.People pay more and more attention to the high frequency data in finance because it contains more volatility information of intraday return than low frequency data does.Realized volatility is a completely new method to calculate volatility of high frequency data, which is applied widely in the study of high frequency data in finance.There are many methods to improve on the realized volatility for it has shortcomings of bigerror and non-robust ness.Among these,only the realized bipower variation overcomes the shortcoming of non-robust ness.The concept of weighted realized bipower variation which is put forward in this article,is not only robust but also unbiased and efficient. The theorem poof and the demonstration study also show the same conclusion:it can measure the volatility more precisely.
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    Statistical Properties of Probability Distributions of Returns in Chinese Stock Markets
    DU Guo-xiong, NING Xuan-xi
    2007, 15 (5):  16-22. 
    Abstract ( 2242 )   PDF (899KB) ( 1678 )   Save
    According to the high frequency closing stock index in Shanghai and Shenzhen during the past seven years,we study the probability distr ibutions and the accumulative distributions of returns over the six different time scales.We find that both distributions for time scale of 1min in Shanghai are consistent with a power lawasymptotic behavior,char acterized by exponents 2.86 and 2.31.We also find that the time evolution of returns is well described by the Lévy stable distribution with Lvy exponents 1.26(in Shanghai)and 1.74(in Shenzhen)respectively.
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    The Expression of Ruin Probability under Claim Numbers with Compound Poisson-Geometric Process
    MAO Ze-chun, LIU Jin-e
    2007, 15 (5):  23-28. 
    Abstract ( 2338 )   PDF (863KB) ( 1469 )   Save
    A risk model with compound Poisson-geometric claim numbers process has been studied. The renewal equation of ruin probability has been studied and the expression of ruin probability has been given in case of the individual claim size distributed in phase-type.
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    The Evaluation and Comparison Research of Dynamic Optimal Hedging Ratios Based on Modified ECM-GARCH
    PENG Hong-feng, YE Yong-gang
    2007, 15 (5):  29-35. 
    Abstract ( 2363 )   PDF (872KB) ( 1818 )   Save
    The Evaluation of Optimal Hedging Ratios are the core question in hedging. Among a great deal of methods,ECM-GARCH model of Kroner and Sultan(1993) has the best hedging effect as a result of considering cointegration relationship and conditional heteroscedasticity. Combining the character of spot and future market in China,this paper develops a Modified ECM LARCH model based on the method of Kroner and Sultan(1993),and calculates the dynamic optimal hedging ratios of copper in China using Modified ECM-GA RC H mo del,BGARCH model and ECM-LARCH model of Kroner and Sultan(1993) respectively. Results indicate that the efficiency of hedging of Modified ECM-LARCH model is the best among the three models,the risk calculated by Modified ECM-LARCH model decreases 93.6% and 92% than BGARCH model and ECM-LARCH model of Kroner and Sultan(1993) respectively.
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    Some Results for Ruin Probability of Stop-Loss Reinsurance with Diffusion and Erlang(2)
    SUN Shu-wang, JIANG Tao
    2007, 15 (5):  36-41. 
    Abstract ( 2280 )   PDF (686KB) ( 1013 )   Save
    This paper researches ruin probabilities of insurance company and reinsurance company with diffusion terms. Under the assumptions that the claim has an Erlang (2) distribution,the relationship between deductible and the corresponding ruin probabilities is obtained The results not only extend Francois and Gerber's corresponding results for classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model,but also have the actual value on the background of revenues of insurance company having the rights to purchase risky assets.
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    Optimal Portfolio Choice Model Based On Loss Aversion
    XU Xu-song, MA Li-li, CHEN Yan-bin
    2007, 15 (5):  42-47. 
    Abstract ( 2560 )   PDF (581KB) ( 2266 )   Save
    The essential behavior of an investor will influence his financial activities. In this paper we take the loss aversion into account and derive utility not only from terminal wealth but also from changes in financial wealth. We propose an optimal portfolio choice model based on loss aversion to maximize the expected utility,and obtain portfolio frontiers of the new model with different scaling parameters of changes in wealth through the empirical study in Shanghai stock market.
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    Information Structure and Asset Price Equilibrium in Order-Driven Market
    WANG Chun-feng, LU Tao, FANG Zhen-ming
    2007, 15 (5):  48-55. 
    Abstract ( 2332 )   PDF (1186KB) ( 1234 )   Save
    Based on the order-driven continuous security market,information structure and differences of opinion,the sequential trading model that researches the formation process of asset price and influences of each factor of information structure on price formation is presented. The conclusion is that the quote spread is impacted on the existence,dissemination and composition of information,which depends on them selves,composition of investors,differences of investors option and the value of information. Then, based on China stock market,the influence of the dissemination and composition of information on quote spread is found,which supports model.
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    Optimal Inventory and Production Decisions for a Single-Period ATO System with Uncertain Capacity and Uncertain Demand
    XIAO Yong-bo, CHEN Jian, WU Peng
    2007, 15 (5):  56-64. 
    Abstract ( 2494 )   PDF (918KB) ( 1308 )   Save
    By postponing the final assembly of products until the actual demand is observed,ATO (Assemble-to-Order) systems can reduce the over-production cost and risk that usually exist in the MTS (Make-to-Stock) systems. However,when the future assembly capacity is constrained,the assembler must assemble a certain quantity of final products in advance so as to maximize his revenue. This paper considers a single-period ATO system that faces both uncertain future demand and uncertain assembly capacity. Before the actual demand is observed,the assembler needs to procure all the necessary components,and pre-assemble some final products. After the actual demand and the actual available capacity are observed,he needs to assemble the rest of the product (if needed),so as to satisfy the customer as much as possible and thus maximize his profit. Based on a two-stage optimization model,the optimal component-inventory and optimal production decisions of the assembler are studied in this paper.We further extend the model to a more complicated situation where emergent outsourcing can be acquired,at an extra cost,to increase the assembly capacity. Our research results provide some interesting managerial insights for the scheduling of ATO systems in an uncertain environment.
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    Study on the Transfer Pricing for a Firm Facing Competition in Upstream and Downstream Market
    ZHANG Fu-li, SHI Jian-jun, LIU Xin-wang
    2007, 15 (5):  65-71. 
    Abstract ( 2298 )   PDF (315KB) ( 944 )   Save
    This paper analyzes the transfer pricing of inter mediate products for a firm facingasym metric competition.It is proved that the transfer price strategy of interm ediate products depends on the asymmetry of upstream subsidiary company and its rival.If the asymmetry of upstream subsidiary company and its rival is higher,the firm should adopt the Hirshleifer's transfer pricing strategy in which the transfer price of intermediate products is equal to the marginal cost of interm ediate products.If the asymmetry of up stream subsidiary company and its rival is lower,the firm shouldadopt the transfer pricing strategy of part decentralized structure.
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    Monopoly Production Optimization Model for Remanufacturing Cost with Stochastic Distribution and Market Segmentation
    LI Xin-jun
    2007, 15 (5):  72-77. 
    Abstract ( 2148 )   PDF (765KB) ( 1185 )   Save
    The two-period production optimization model is developed in monopoly manufacturing/remanufacturing environment. The function between the remanufacturing cost and the remanufacturing yield is constructed on the condition of the constant return rate. The customer preference coefficient is incorporated to describe the price cannibalization and market segmentation between new and remanufactured products. The theorem that the model is a convex programming problem is verified and then KT conditions of solving are expressed. Moreover,an example of remanufacturing cost with gamma distribution is given and further the character of solving is testified. A numerical computation is given to illustrate the properties and rules of the model.
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    A Modified Genetic Algorithm for Scheduling Multiple Projects with Resource Constraint
    ZHANG Han-peng, QIU Wan-hua
    2007, 15 (5):  78-82. 
    Abstract ( 2006 )   PDF (929KB) ( 1479 )   Save
    For the multiple projects scheduling problem,a modified genetic algorithm with schedule generation scheme is put forward based on other researchers'effective meta-heuristic approaches.The contrast with other meta-heuristic approaches,it is a satisfying model in average project delay and optimal solutions.The modified genetic algorithm is superior to other algorithm on multiple projects scheduling problem with different network complexity and resource distribution,for it synthesizes optimum priority rules.
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    Application of Improved ACO in Resource Scheduling of Offshore Project Groups
    LI Yan-cang
    2007, 15 (5):  83-87. 
    Abstract ( 2271 )   PDF (277KB) ( 899 )   Save
    Dy namic resources scheduling in group management is an urgent question in off shore engineering management.To solve this question,an improved Ant Colony Optimization algorithm based on information entropy was introduced.The core is that the proportion of the time needed in every project with the degree of demand of the resources is viewed as the meta-information.Performance comparison and engineering practice in solving the resources scheduling in off shore engineering show that using the algorithm, the resources can be allocated dynamically and rationally with high efficiency.The method can be used in the dynamic resources scheduling problems of other fields.
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    The Sequencing Optimal Decision with Divisible Activities
    LI Xing-mei, QI Jian-xun, NIU Dong-xiao
    2007, 15 (5):  88-93. 
    Abstract ( 1989 )   PDF (493KB) ( 867 )   Save
    The sequencing optimal decision of parallel activities is one of the most effective and familiar methods in the issue of resource-constrained schedule planning.Researches on this problem have focused on the indivisible activities mainly ever before.In fact,many activities can be decomposed into arbitrary portions.In this case,this paper proposed the minimum project duration theory and on the foundationes-tablished the tardiness model of sequencing the two divisible parallel activities,then gave the theoretic proof.Furthermore,the problem of sequencing an activity selected amongn divisible parallel activities with a designated acivity is also studied in this paper.Based on the tardiness model,the optimal method and theoretic proof are provided.Especially for a large scale network,the superiority becomes very distinct.
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    Study on Purchasing Price of Tobacco Leaf of China
    ZHANG Yong, CHI Hong, WANG Jian-jun
    2007, 15 (5):  94-100. 
    Abstract ( 2417 )   PDF (383KB) ( 1012 )   Save
    In recent years,as the purchasing price of tobacco leaf is irrational,Chinese peasants are not positive to plant tobacco leaf,it greatly influences the development of to bacco leaf production in China. For a long time,the pur chasing price of tobacco leaf was established according to the proportion between the price of to bacco leaf and commissariat.But this method has its own limitation,it can not spur the peasants to plant tobacco leaf.Taking the reality of tobacco leaf production into consideration,this paper combines the data envelopment analysis(DEA),regression and game theory together.This method is based on the income comparison between tobacco leaf and commissariat,so the purchasing price can effectively spur peasants to plant tobacco leaf.At last,we offer an example.
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    The Research on Coordination of TPT-CLSC
    WANG Yu-yan, LI Bang-yi, SHEN Liang
    2007, 15 (5):  101-106. 
    Abstract ( 2178 )   PDF (363KB) ( 1126 )   Save
    Closed-loop supply chain based on third-party take back model(TPT-CLSC)is the key issue on business area.This paper develops a model of non-cooperation and cooperation model in TPT-CLSC system,and researches their pricing strategies.Research shows that the higher level of cooperation among TPT-CLSC members,the greater profits in TPT-CLSC channels.In order to facilitate the effective cooperation among TPT-CLSC members,the paper further establishes the mechanisms of coordination between members of the system,which increase their profits than non-cooperation.In the end,this paper proved the feasibility of cooperation system through numerical analysis.
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    Some DEA Models for Evaluating Efficiency of Environmental Protection Projects
    ZHANG Qun, XUN Zhi-yuan
    2007, 15 (5):  107-112. 
    Abstract ( 2041 )   PDF (632KB) ( 1276 )   Save
    Due to undesirable data in the inputs and outputs,the standard Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) model carat be directly applied to evaluate the efficiency of environmental protection project.In this paper,by using undesirable data translation,transforming undesirable outputs into inputs and undesirable inputs into outputs,reversing undesirable data,the undesirable data can be included in the standard DEA model,the relationship among the three efficiency measures is analyzed,the approach broadens the scale of DEA application. A sample of this efficiency measures is given.
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    A Symmetric Duopoly Option Games Based on Two Stochastic Factors
    YU Dong-ping
    2007, 15 (5):  113-118. 
    Abstract ( 1939 )   PDF (376KB) ( 1043 )   Save
    This paper provides a framework of symmetric duopoly option game and discusses the optimal strategy decision problems in corporate investment under the stochastic conditions of both project demand and operation cost which are correlative. We analyze especially the equilibrium rules of optimal strategy and its conditions and make a comparative static analysis to the influence of parameters to optimal thresholds after educing investment value function and optimal investment threshold. At last,we draw some significant conclusions and make economic explanations.
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    Study on Performance of Alliance Formed by Competitive Duopoly
    LONG Yong, LI Wei
    2007, 15 (5):  119-125. 
    Abstract ( 1963 )   PDF (950KB) ( 980 )   Save
    Competitive alliances formed by rivals have become the focus of researches on alliance theory. Aiming at asymmetric competitive duopoly in a district and both the R&D and the marketing stage,this paper analyzes the equilibrium of R&D investment and profits under non-cooperation and forming R&D and co-marketing competitive alliance. As a result,we find the win-win area of competitive alliance formed by rivalrous duopoly. The result is beneficial to Chinese firms to enter global market and raise global competitiveness through the relationship of competition and cooperation.
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    Improving the Precision of GM(1,1) Model by Using Particle Swarm Optimization
    ZHANG Qi-shan
    2007, 15 (5):  126-129. 
    Abstract ( 2060 )   PDF (402KB) ( 1220 )   Save
    Changing the linear interpolation coefficient of the background value and the boundary value in GM(1,1) model is a way to improve the precision of GM(1,1) model.For a sequence satisfying the conditions of GM(1,1) modeling,a new method of improving the precision of GM (1,l) model by using the partide swarm optimization is developed. The computation of an example shows that this method may enhance the precision of GM(1,1) model.
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    Mechanism Design to Promote Information Sharing Across Branches in E-Government
    GAO Xi-rong
    2007, 15 (5):  130-136. 
    Abstract ( 2288 )   PDF (1513KB) ( 1077 )   Save
    The information bulwark occurring across the branches is the main obstacle that bafflese-government's realization,and therefore,it is necessary how to encourage the information sharing across the branches in e-government institutionally.As a resolvent of the problem above,the incentives model was established when information sharing occurred among the governmental branches.The author thought that the positive incentives and the negative ones must be adopted simultaneously because of their mutual assu-rance relationship in order to impel the information sharing among the governmental branches.
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    The Investigation of Optimal Liquidation under Stochastic and Nonlinear Price Impact
    CHU Xiao-jun, LIU Si-feng
    2007, 15 (5):  137-142. 
    Abstract ( 2551 )   PDF (534KB) ( 1087 )   Save
    In practice,the trader with a large block of shares usually faces endogenous liquidity risk of price impact.So the shares are usually broken up and the trader chooses the optimal strategy to trade.In this paper,the model of price impactis expanded.Supposing price impact with stochastic and nonlinear,we established the model of the stochastic and nonlinear price impact.The results show that the trader liquidation speed is obviously confined and the speed is constant under stochastic and quadratic price impact function.The parameters sensitivity of optimal strategy is also analyzed in the paper:in early days,the greater σ and α are,the greater liquidation speed is.The liquidation position reduction is more close to linear with γ、β and θ increasing.We also highlight that the optimal liquidation time should be investigated under internal and external conditions.
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    Study on Financing Constraints and Inefficient Investment of Ultimate Owner in Private Pyramid Firms
    HAN Zhi-li, YANG Shu-e, SHI Hao-jiang
    2007, 15 (5):  143-148. 
    Abstract ( 2000 )   PDF (642KB) ( 1252 )   Save
    Based on the theoretic analysis of inefficient investment of ultimate owner,the paper analyzes the problem of inefficient investment of ultimate owner in private firms using unbalanced panel data of Chinese private listed firms. The result suggests that ultimate owner will make under-investment facing financing constraints,and he will do over-investment without financing constraints. The smaller of the cash-flow right owned by ultimate owner or the worse protection of investors,the more severe over-investment will be done by ultimate owner.Besides,the paper investigates the relationship between the tunneling and over-investment of ultimate owner and finds the negative correlation without financing constraints.
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