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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 March 2019, Volume 27 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    The Analysis of Crowdfunding Financing Mechanism Based on Social Network
    QU Shao-jian, LU Yan-ling, JI Ying
    2019, 27 (3):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.001
    Abstract ( 655 )   PDF (1195KB) ( 586 )   Save
    Crowdfunding, a new internet financing mode, has undergone rapid development since it arises in China and has a thriving prospect in the long run. For the purpose of attracting numerously potential investors to participate this financing activity, initiator seeks to utilize many methods, including the degree of project dynamic update and adverse incentive, to enhance the popularity of crowdfunding project. However, there is lack of a special marketing mode based on social network in the process of propagandistic crowdfunding project. In order to explore the acceleration effect of social network marketing in existing crowdfunding mode, three crowdfunding mechanisms are raised where an initiator advertises his financing project through social network compared with traditional crowdfunding publicity relied on crowdfunding platform merely, meanwhile, considering to put social network publicity into the different period of crowdfunding. Further, the total purchase function with demand depending on price and the publicity degree of social network under three modes is investigated based on the hypothesis of Homo Economicus, and the revenue model is built based on the dynamic games of complete information theory. Finally, the equilibrium results of non-social network marketing and existing social network publicity in crowdfunding activity are discussed based on revenue maximization and Stackelberg game. The equilibrium results signify when the social comprehensive cost is higher, the "social-crowdfunding" mode can achieve the increasement of net financing amount if the social enhancement coefficient is high enough and the minimum cost restriction requested by social platform is relatively low. But the "crowdfunding-social-crowdfunding" mode can achieve a higher financing amount compared with the "social-crowdfunding" mechanism in any situation. Additionally, the crowdfunding price of product and the advertising degree on the social network are both higher in cooperation case. In conclusion, through analyzing and contrasting different financing mechanism and illustrating the presented cases of social crowdfunding, it is concluded that the marketing incentive of social network is completely necessary in emerging crowdfunding market. In brief, theoretical basis and practical gist for exploring and optimizing the social mechanism in crowdfunding project are provided in this paper.
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    An EM-similar Imputation Algorithm for Multivariable Data Missing and its Application in Credit Scoring
    JIANG Hui, MA Chao-qun, XU Xu-qing, LAN Qiu-jun
    2019, 27 (3):  11-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.002
    Abstract ( 548 )   PDF (1191KB) ( 263 )   Save
    Data missing can significantly reduce the accuracy and usability of the credit scoring model, especially in multivariate missing situations. The classical method to fill missing data is the substitution of mean and mode. And EM algorithm becomes popular recently.
    Aiming at the data missing in the phase of credit scoring, a new multivariable data filling method is proposed in this paper, whose idea is similar to EM algorithm. However, it has wider applicability because the distribution functions of the missing variables are not required. The method consists of two stages:models preparation stage and data filling stage. At the models preparation stage, Naive Bayes method is used to train prediction models based on the initial data set for all variables with missing possibility. At the second stage, the variables of a sample with missed data arefilled using prediction models built at the previous stage and by a way of alternately iteration. It is proved that the algorithm is monotonically convergent.
    Three data sets are collected for experiments. One is downloaded from Renrendai, a famous P2P financial company, and two of them (German and Australia), are the benchmark data sets provided by UCI. Experimental results show that both the accuracy of data recovery and the accuracy of credit evaluation of the proposed method are obviously better than that of mode filling and EM methods for all three experimental data sets. This significantly indicates that the proposed method has better capability to solve the problem of multivariable data missing in credit evaluation.
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    The Estimation, Classification and Monte Carlo Simulation for Semiparametric Spatial ZISF
    JIANG Qing-shan, HUANG Can, LI Yi-jun
    2019, 27 (3):  20-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.003
    Abstract ( 518 )   PDF (1018KB) ( 240 )   Save
    Zero inefficiency stochastic frontier model (ZISF) contains regression model and stochastic frontier model, which are with certain probability respectively. Thus ZISF can accommodate the presence of both efficient and inefficient firms. Now the theoretical researches about ZISF are rare. Especially for spatial ZISF, the existing ZISFs are with poor applicability. By incorporating spatial effects and nonparametric functions into ZISF, semiparametric spatial ZISF is constructed in this paper. The semiparametric spatial ZISF can avoid under-fitting derived from linear model and the biased and inconsistent estimators derived from neglecting spatial effects. B-splines are used to approximate nonparametric function and the model has been changed into linear spatial ZISF. The two order norm of approximate error can converge to zero quickly, so the approximate error can be neglected. Maximum likelihood method and JLMS method are used to estimate parameters and technical efficiencies respectively. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that:(i) The method in this paper is with high estimation accuracies for parameters, nonparametric functions and technical efficiencies and with high classification for technical efficiencies. With sample size increasing, the accuracies become higher. (ii) Neglecting any one of effect such as spatial effect or nonparametric effect will get lower estimation accuracies and classification accuracies. So the model in paper is necessary. (iii) The nonparametric effect in production function or in probability of occurrence has different impact on the estimation and classification accuracies. When the nonparametric effect in production function is neglected, there is only a small reduction for the estimation and classification accuracies. While the nonparametric effect in probability of occurrence is neglected, the estimation and classification accuracies have been substantially decreased.
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    A Hybrid Monthly Load Forecasting Method Based on Seasonal Adjustment and Holt-Winters
    SU Zhen-yu, LONG Yong, WANG Yu
    2019, 27 (3):  30-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.004
    Abstract ( 476 )   PDF (1200KB) ( 313 )   Save
    Load forecasting plays an important role in the planning and economic and secure operation of power systems. However, the abnormal data in load series will result in forecasting model misspecification or incorrect model parameters estimation. So a hybrid monthly load forecasting model based on seasonal adjustment and improved holt-winters is built to solve such problems. Firstly, after seasonal adjustment, the final seasonally adjusted series where outliers or holidays effects have been removed and seasonal component series can be obtained simultaneously; secondly, the improved Holt-Winters method is used to forecast final seasonally adjusted component, and virtual regression equation is used to forecast seasonal component. Finally, the final forecasting result can be obtained by using forecasting result of seasonal component and seasonal adjusted component jointly. The case calculation results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy and the forecasting performance is better than seasonal Holt-Winters, SARIMA, neural network, and support vector machine. In summary, the proposed model can be practically applied as a monthly load forecasting tool.
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    Contract Structure Analysis of Supply Chain Under Retailer's Equity Financing
    YU Hui, DENG Jie
    2019, 27 (3):  41-52.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.005
    Abstract ( 392 )   PDF (1400KB) ( 377 )   Save
    The combination of finance and the entity economy is the main trend of the "new normal" period of Chinese economy, and thus the equity investment industry has been vigorously supported by the policy. In addition to lack of funds, the development of business entities can do nothing without the support of supply chain, and it will be affected by the cooperation mode between the supply chain enterprises. Therefore, when financial institutions make equity investment to enterprises, they begin to consider the influence of supply chain, to consciously make acquisitions, mergers and even to build upstream and downstream to reduce the friction between the supply chain enterprises, and to accelerate the development of financing enterprises. However, this behavior is always costly, and the operation and market risk is completely borne by the investment and financing parties. The efficiency of the allocation of financial resources is reduced. Based on the realistic background, the impact of supply chain contract on the equity financing of growing retail enterprise is studied in this paper. It is assumed that the investment institution (in this paper, a private equity investment institution, PE,is considered) adopts P/B method (with P/B ratio as α) to valuation the retail enterprise, and the investment volume is B. The retailer holds a fixed asset A and own fund η, and then his stock share becomes to θ=(α(A+η))/(α(A+η)+B) after equity financing. It is considered that the retailer faces a random market demand ξ, where only the mean μ is known to him. With the help of equity financing, the retailer could expand the market demand from ξ to ξ+βe, where β represents the retail enterprise's growth-potential, and e represents the retailer's sales effort. The effort cost function is expressed as 1/2 se2, and retailer's selling price is p, and the supplier's unit cost is c. The Stackelberg version of the problem with the supplier act as the leader is explored, then the retailer needs to decide the optimal order quantity q to maximize his expected total asset TAR=θ(A+η+B+pmin{q,ξ+βe}-wq-1/2 se2) after the supplier chooses optimally the selling price w, which maximizes the supplier's profit function πs(w)=(w-c)q. Since the demand information is incomplete, a minimax regret criterion is taken to solve the optimization problem. Under two kinds of different supply chain contracts, the supplier and retailer's optimal decisions are obtained. It shows that the retailer's equity financing is greatly influenced by the contractual structure. On the one hand, the supplier-dominated contract structure seriously impedes the retailer's equity-willingness, and is not conducive to the development of enterprises. On the other hand, through a kind of contract locking protocol, the equity-willingness of the retailers can be improved and the win-win situation can be achieved. It reveals the significance and value of a reasonable settings of supply chain contract structure in the process of equity financing.
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    Government Subsidy Mechanism in Contract-farming Supply Chain Financing under Loan Guarantee Insurance and Yield Uncertainty
    HUANG Jian-hui, LIN Qiang
    2019, 27 (3):  53-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.006
    Abstract ( 492 )   PDF (1799KB) ( 306 )   Save
    Building a new socialist countryside is to achieve agricultural modernization, and contract-farming is an important helper to promote agricultural modernization. However, with the gradual development of contract-farming in China, the plight of supply chain financing becomes increasingly prominent because of the high risk of supply chain financing and high cost of financing, and seriously restricts the process of agricultural modernization.
    Numerous theories are proposed to explain supply chain financing, mainly aimed at the traditional manufacturing supply chain. Due to the unique characteristics of the agriculture, such as the random yield, production easily affected by natural disasters, lacking of effective collateral, the contract-farming supply chain is different from the traditional manufacturing supply chain. Therefore, the optimal decision in the traditional manufacturing supply chain is not necessarily applicable to the contract-farming supply chain. In recent years, some scholars have considered the supply chain finance in the optimal decision-making of contract-farming supply chain. Surprisingly, most literature in agricultural supply chain financing neglected the effect of government subsidy on the optimal decision of contract-farming supply chain.
    In view of this, on the basis of previous research results, a two-echelon contract-farming supply chain comprised of a company and a farmer with capital constraints is studied in this paper. Considering loan guarantee insurance and the uncertainty of the production yield in the contract-farming supply chain financing, the four stage dynamic game between government, bank, company and farmer is stadied under the government subsidies for the loan interest, and the effects of government subsidy on the optimal decisions and benefits of the supply chain partners are analyzed. Furthermore, the government's optimal subsidy mechanism, which is to maximize social welfare, is obtained. It is found that, (1) when the output rate in the harvest year is less than 2 times the output rate in the disaster year, the government does not need to provide the subsidy mechanism; otherwise, the government should provide the subsidy mechanism. (2)The government subsidy mechanism should be:①when the price sensitive coefficient is small, the government should not provide subsidy; ②when the price sensitive coefficient is in the middle, the government should provide subsidy partly; ③otherwise, the government should provide one hundred percent subsidy; ④when the ratio of the output rate in the disaster year and the output rate in the harvest year is increased to a certain value, the government will always provide subsidies. If the above ratio of the output rate is increased to a greater value, the government will provide full subsidies. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the improvement of the new pattern of cooperative loan.
    The above research results not only provide some managerial insights for the government to design the subsidy mechanism, but also offer some useful theoretical guidance for the agricultural related personnel in the operation and financial decision-making.
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    Equilibrium Strategies for Telecom Service and Handset Bundling with Fairness Concerns
    WANG Ning-ning, FAN Zhi-ping, WANG Yu-cai
    2019, 27 (3):  66-76.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.007
    Abstract ( 503 )   PDF (1093KB) ( 244 )   Save
    Recognizing the importance of fairness as well as the prevailing practice of telecom service and handset bundling in modern wireless businesses, the effects of the handset manufacturer's fairness concerns on the pricing and subsidy policy, the profit distribution, and the coordination of subsidy contract under a handset manufacturer-Stackelberg structure are examined in this paper. Specifically, a setting in which a telecom service operator cooperates with a handset manufacturer to deliver the complementary telecom service and handset to end consumers is considered. The handset manufacturer acts as a Stackelberg leader, and sets the handset retail price, while the service operator responds by setting the subsidy as a Stackelberg follower. This problem is modeled and solved based on the game theoretical paradigm. First, the equilibrium strategies and equilibrium profits for the centralized model and subsidy contract model are presented, respectively. Then, the effects of fairness concerns of the handset manufacturer on the equilibrium strategies of the handset manufacturer and the service operator, the channel members' profits, and the overall profit are analyzed. Furthermore, the channel coordination issue for the subsidy contract is investigated. The results show that the disadvantageous inequality aversion will promote the handset manufacturer to set a relatively higher retail price, and thus lead a deterioration of the overall performance. And the advantageous inequality aversion will promote the handset manufacturer to set a relatively lower retail price, and thus improve the overall performance. However, the channel coordination can not be achieved no matter the handset manufacturer cares about fairness or not. Besides, the results also show that blindly pursuing a high distributed ratio will not necessarily increase the handset manufacturer's profit and will reduce the overall profits. These results indicate that it is important to consider the fairness issue in telecom service and handset bundling, especially for the situation when a handset manufacturer cooperates with a relative disadvantageous service operator.
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    Optimal Pricing Strategy Considering the Effect of Experience Delay in Online Shopping
    ZHANG Li-gong, GUO Xiao-long, HAN Dong-ya, YU Yu-gang
    2019, 27 (3):  77-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.008
    Abstract ( 567 )   PDF (836KB) ( 494 )   Save
    The development of electronic commerce technology makes shopping more convenient; while at the same time, the uncertainty of consumers' preference for products occurs as a result of that the product experience-information cannot be realized immediately. In reality, consumers will further strategically purchase two or more products and then return some of them when the experience-information is realized. In this paper, two products (A and B) which have horizontal differences are sold by a firm, such as the colors or styles which do not influence the quality of the products. The consumers may buy more than one product which have horizontal differences, retain one and return the others after fitting, which is considered as strategic purchasing behavior. A Hotelling model is developed to describe the horizontal difference between the two products. Product A is assumed to be located at the point 0 and product B is located at the point 1. Consumers are uniformly distributed on the support[0,1]. Purchasing utilities of three choices (purchasing product A, purchasing product B, purchasing both of them and return one after fitting) for consumers are derived, based on the expected demands and profit for the firm can be realized. Some managerial implications are obtained from the analysis of the model. First, this result shows that only when the negative effect caused by the comparison or return is small enough, the strategic return behavior occurs. Second, the price of the products decreases with the negative impact caused by the comparison or return of the consumer, while decreasing with the product's inherent differentiation awareness. Third, the price of products increases with the preference when one of the products has no solely demand and the price of product increases with the preference of the consumers under certain condition when there are consumers purchasing all products separately. Our study contributes to the theoretical basis for strategic consumers, especially in the cases where consumers have preference uncertainty.
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    The Effects of Premium and Penalty Mechanism on Manufacturer's Cooperative Strategies in the Closed-loop Supply Chain with Production Diseconomies
    SHI Chun-lai, NIE Jia-jia
    2019, 27 (3):  85-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.009
    Abstract ( 453 )   PDF (1034KB) ( 378 )   Save
    To achieve higher supply chain efficiency and improve completive edge, the manufacturer can cooperate with other member in the closed-loop supply chain. Even though conventional wisdoms such as Nie (2012) and Ma et al. (2016) studied industry profits of different cooperative models in closed-loop supply chain, they ignored the fact that many countries set premium and penalty mechanism to order manufactures to engage in remanufacturing fields. Then scholars did not consider that situation that manufacturers maybe be under scale diseconomies as well. Therefore, the effects of premium and penalty mechanism on manufacturer's cooperative strategies in the closed-loop supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a retailer and a recycler under manufacturer's scale diseconomies are investigated. First, whether the manufacture has an incentive to cooperative with another member is explored. Second, we need to explore which kind of cooperation bring more profit increment for partners. Third, how different cooperation affect the industry profit is analyzed.
    To settle these problems, four cooperative models based on game theory:no cooperation mode (Model N), cooperation only with the recycler (Model MC), and cooperation only with the retailer (Model MR), and cooperation with both the retailer and recycler (Model MCR) are developed. Model MCR and N just are made as benchmarks. Especially, Model MCR is the upper bound, and Model N is the bottom in these models. Through our analysis, it is found that the manufacturer always has an incentive to cooperate with recycler or retailer. However, whether it is more possible to cooperate with the retailer or recycler depends on both production diseconomies and degree of premium and penalty mechanism. If both production diseconomy and degree of premium and penalty are small, the manufacturer prefers to cooperate with the retailer. Otherwise, the manufacturer prefers to cooperate with the recycler. The relations of industry profits in different models are still decided by both production diseconomies and degree of premium and penalty mechanism. In addition, the collecting quantity of end-of-life product always improves thanks to the alliance between the manufacturer and the retailer or recycler.
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    Loss-averse Retailer's Ordering Strategy under the Financing Demand and Supply Chain Coordination
    DU Wen-yi, LIU Xiao-jing, TANG Xiao-wo
    2019, 27 (3):  96-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.010
    Abstract ( 425 )   PDF (1079KB) ( 263 )   Save
    With the rapid development of economic globalization, the global retail industry is undergoing a great change. The rapid expansion in retailers' size and the relative concentration in the retail market have been significantly improved, and the traditional supply chain dominated the past challenges. In response to these changes, companies need to prepare more working capital. However, in practice, companies often face a shortage of capital. With a capital constraint, a retailer fails to procure or order optimally, which not only influences the profitability, but also harms the competitiveness of the upstream suppliers.
    Therefore, it's critical for retailers to figure out a way to solve the problem of insufficient capital. Meanwhile, the supply chain financing appears. As a new financing tool, the supply chain financing has received extensive attention in corporate finance area. However, a majority of the current literatures focus on the optimal ordering decision assuming the retailer is risk-neutral. Other literatures focus on the optimal order decision assuming the retailer has no capital constraint. In fact, market risk and capital risk are very common in practice.
    Based on the practice, two interesting questions arise, that is, how does a risk-averse retailer decide ordering strategies to alleviate the capital constraint and how does a retailer's decision affect the expected supply chain profit and further realize the coordination of supply chains. To answer the two questions, a two-echelon supply chain system consisting of one risk-neutral manufacturer and one risk-averse retailer is considered. Using classical loss-aversion measurements, the supply chain financing model is established. By adopting the backward induction and linear optimization method, the retailer's optimal order decision is solved and then the optimal proportion of financing cost-share of the supply chain is analyzed.
    The results show that a capital constrained retailer's order quantity increases with their own money, while decreases with the increase of the loss aversion coefficient. The retailer determines the loss aversion coefficient and decreases the quantity of goods as the interest rate increases. To examine the theoretical model, the numerical analysis is used to simulate the corresponding results. Our research can enrich the existing supply chain finance literature and provide insights for core enterprises and banks regarding the supply chain risk management practice.
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    Retailer's Platform Opening Strategy for Retailer with Store Brand
    LI Pei, WEI Hang, WANG Guang-yong, TAN Dan
    2019, 27 (3):  105-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.011
    Abstract ( 508 )   PDF (1048KB) ( 383 )   Save
    With the rapid development of e-commerce and the increasing competition among retailers, store brand strategy becomes the key to gain competitive advantage. In general, retailers sell store brand products and other manufacturers' products at the same time. In e-commerce, most retailers choose to provide manufacturers with a sales platform that allows them to sell their products directly to consumers and receive commissions. For example, Dangdang.com not only sells its own brand "DANGDANG BABY", also allows other manufacturers to sell maternal and child products on its platform. However, when retailers sell store brand products and other manufacturers' products, the similarities between products may result in competition due to the proximity of products. Thus, many retailers with store brands, such as Wal-Mart and Tesco, still adopt traditional reseller model. In this way, retailers have two different strategies:first, open the platform to allow other manufacturers to sell products on the platform; second, do not open the platform, retailers purchase products form the manufacturer and then sale to consumers. Therefore, the open platform strategy of store brand retailer is examined, and the question is mainly answered in this paper:should the store brand retailer open its platform?
    Existing literatures on store brand mostly study the retailer's store brand strategy and manufacturer's preventive strategy, there is studies on the open platform strategy for the retailer with store brand. Moreover, few literatures of retailer platform openness strategy consider both the demand difference of store brand and manufacturer brand, price competition, fixed costs, and the endogenous commission rate. Thus, the key contribution of our study can be summarized as follows. The potential demand differences, competition degree and fixed costs are considered at same time. The platform open strategy of store brand retailers is studied, and some theoretical comclusions are proved by taking JD.com as a case.
    The paper is organized as follows:the equilibrium profit of the retailer and the manufacturer under close platform and open platform is obtained by building a linear demand function model, and then the condition of commission rate endogenous is given. Moreover, the conditions of the retailer open platform are given by comparison the equilibrium profit, and the influence of the coefficient of price influence, the fixed cost and the demand difference coefficient of store brand and manufacturer brand is analyzed. Finally, combined with numerical analysis and the development status of JD's store brand, the main conclusions of this paper are verified.
    The results show that, firstly, the commission rates gradually reduce with the increase in fixed costs or the decrease in the demand difference coefficient. Secondly, the retailer prefers to open platform when the price impact coefficient, or fixed cost, or the demand difference coefficient is small, and the retailer prefers to close platform when the price impact coefficient, or fixed cost, or the demand difference coefficient is bigger. Our findings not only complement the store brand and online marketplace literature but also provide testable empirical questions on the relationship and magnitude of different factors steering the strategy choice.
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    The Beautification Strategy of Information Disclosure Based on the Optimization of Pricing and Ordering Considering Consumer Returns
    FAN Shuang-jiao, WANG Xu-ping
    2019, 27 (3):  116-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.012
    Abstract ( 461 )   PDF (1394KB) ( 260 )   Save
    One of the remarkable differences between online retail and traditional physical storefront operation is that there are a lot of consumer returns caused by non-quality reasons. The proper analytical expression of returns in the e-commerce environment is a key issue of inventory and pricing optimization and the effective product information disclosure strategy. The online shopping behavior could be divided into two-stage decision processes of the purchase decision and the return decision. The decisions are mainly based on the estimated valuation observed by consumers through browsing introduction pages and the perception differences revealed after obtaining the product. Based on the mechanism of returns, the uniform distribution of perceived value in Hotelling model and existing research is hypothesized, and the characteristics of the purchase probability and the return probability in both daily sales period and promotion period are analyzed. Expected profit models are established, and analytical solutions of the optimal order quantity are derived. Computational methods for the optimal solutions of the price in daily sales period, the price discount in promotion period, and the maximum expected profits are also demonstrated. Taking the cost parameters in existing joint pricing and inventory optimization study for reference, a set of numerical examples is made, in which perceived value and perception differences are verified to obey the more general distribution with different correlation coefficients. The change rule of the maximum profit with the information distribution beautification degree, and the influence of the correlation on the effectiveness of the beautification strategy are studied. The research shows that:customer returns in the promotion period are affected by two reverse effects, which are the increase of return rate due to the impulse buying and the decrease of return rate caused by the loss of returns due to opportunity costs, and the probability of impulsive buying increases with higher prices; the purchase and return rate model in e-commerce environment built from the perspective of perceived value and perception difference is in accordance with the existing empirical study that the return rate increase with the price, and it can also explain the reason for the high return rate after steep price reduction; when the selling price, the purchase price and the residual value meet certain conditions, the merchants adopt the appropriate information disclosure beautification strategy can improve the profit to some extent; the degree of information beautification increases with the price and the residual value, and the extent to information beautification in promotion period is higher than that in the daily sales period; the profit of the product with moderate linear correlation between perceived value and perceived difference is lower than that of the product with low or high linear correlation; Information beautification strategy is more effective on products with higher linear correlation. The return model from the perspective of perceived value and perception difference is built, which is more consistent with the actual situation and the results of empirical studies. Based on that return model, the research of the pricing and ordering optimization and the beautification strategy of information disclosure can provide better decision support for online retailers.
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    The Optimization of Quality Control in Dual Channel Supply Chains with Uncertain Demand
    SHEN Qiang, XU Li-li, YANG Wei-min, LIU Xiao-bing, HOU Yun-xian
    2019, 27 (3):  128-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.013
    Abstract ( 528 )   PDF (1556KB) ( 528 )   Save
    Quality and price competition of products in different channel which affected by quality decisions of e-commerce platform and physical stores is considered. And product quality control problem in dual channel supply chains, which consists of manufacturers, retailer, e-commerce platform and customers based on the stackblerg game mode is studied. Considering the uncertainty of customer demand, the variation of the product quality level and supply chain's profit with coordination of wholesale price contract between manufacturers and retailer, revenue-sharing contract between manufacturers and e-commerce platform is analyzed, based on the benefit analytical models of manufacturer, physical store and e-commerce platform. Also, the optimal quality control levels of the manufacturers retailer and e-commerce platform are proved by using the principle of optimization. After the simulation, the result shows that the quality levels of the manufacturers, retailer, e-commerce platform are interacted with the contracts. The logistics distribution quality level of e-commerce platform and storage quality level of retailers change in the same direction, while increase in the price of retailer will be bad for the improvement of logistics distribution quality control. The more sensitive the consumers are to price, the more attention the manafacturer pays to product quality control. The more sensitive the consumers are to storage and logistics quality, the less attention the manufacturer pays to product quality control. So, the quality control in the production-process and physical stores can be promoted with the quality control of logistics and distribution services, which can be improved by the development of the logistics and distribution services.
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    Research on the Model of Supplier Selection with HTFWGBM Operator
    ZHANG Jian
    2019, 27 (3):  137-143.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.014
    Abstract ( 465 )   PDF (632KB) ( 382 )   Save
    The complexity, uncertainty and limitation of human cognition in the processes of supplier selection lead to the distortion of information fusion and inaccuracy of decision-making. With respect of decision-making problems about supplier selection introduced by decision-making attributes and hesitate triangular fuzzy numbers (HTFN), a decision-making algorithm based on hesitate triangular fuzzy geometric weighted Bonferroni mean (HTFGWBM) operators is propased in this paper. First, in terms of hesitate triangular fuzzy numbers and geometric Bonferroni mean operator theory, HTFGWBM operators and hesitate triangular fuzzy geometric weighted Bonferroni mean (HTFGWBM) operator are defined respectively, and their constraints are explored, such as attributes of monotonic, limited and idempotent. Combining with HTFN sorting methods, then alternative suppliers based on the new hesitate multi-attribute decision-making model constructed with HTFGWBM operators are sequenced. Finally, a suppler selection example from an empirical project is illustrated to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed decision-making model. The results show that this model is equipped with ductility and fault tolerance via the adjustment of parameters, which can be used in scientific decision-making.
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    Stimulatingcorporate Social Responsibility in Supply Chain in Different Dominated Modes
    YANG Yan, CHENG Yan-pei, Chen Shou
    2019, 27 (3):  144-156.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.015
    Abstract ( 481 )   PDF (1553KB) ( 339 )   Save
    Most studies addressing the problem of corporate social responsibility (CSR) stimulation of a supply chain assume that supplier dominates the supply chain. However, the tendency appears that the retailing market is becoming more and more concentrated so that the dominance of retailers on the supply chain gets more and more prominent for some industries. Furthermore, suppliers in the supply chains dominated by different parties may have different motivation to engage CSR and prefer different contracts. Therefore, how to motivate supplier to engage inmore social responsibilities under different power structure of supply chain is studied in this paper. A supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer is constructed. Assuming that only the supplier fulfills CSR, the market power structure (retailer-led and supplier-led) is integrated with the supply chain social responsibility incentive contract (revenue-sharing incentive and cost-sharing incentive) choice decision, aiming to maximize the social responsibility under the premise that profits increased for both parties of the supply chain after the contract is introduced. The following findings are contributed. Relative to the supplier-dominated mode, the supplier would undertake more social responsibility in the retailer-dominatedmode. With the introduction of revenue-sharing and cost-sharing contract, it is found that the cost-sharing contract is more effective even though both contracts are feasible to stimulate suppers' social responsibilities in the supplier-led model. However, in the retailer-dominated mode, the revenue-sharing contract can motivate the suppliers to undertake more corporate social responsibility, but a fails to increase the profit of retailer.The contract can't thereby be reached.The cost-sharing contract only has a stimulating effect when the sharing rate is big enough, which is inconsistent with the intuition. All the findings are demonstrated by the simulation results. It is revealed, on the one hand, sharing contract can motivate suppliers to fulfill CSR, and on the other hand, it provides implications to motivate suppliers'CSR initiatives for the retailer-led supply chain.
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    Study on the Optimization of Investment Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy Projects-from a Perspective of Execution Time
    CHENG Cheng, WANG Zhen, LIU Hui-hui, ZHAO Guo-hao, LIU Ming-ming, REN Xiao-hang
    2019, 27 (3):  157-167.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.016
    Abstract ( 486 )   PDF (2247KB) ( 334 )   Save
    In order to realize sustainable development and to reduce the greenhouse gas emission, China needs to promote the development of renewable energy, which is highly related to the incentive policies. Therefore, in order to investigate the effects of different incentive policies and to optimize the incentive polices, a real option approach is applied to evaluate the renewable energy policies in China:The economics of renewable energy projects in China are firstly studied, corresponding assumptions are proposed, and then real option models are established and solved. The expected execution time and the optimal incentive values with respect to technological levels are also obtained. Then, solar photovoltaic (PV) projects are used as a case study. The results show that:(1) incentive policies are necessary for the development of solar PV projects, however, the current or previous incentive policies exceeds the optimal incentive values; (2) more attractive basic incentive policies should be promulgated if there is a technological progress in the solar industry; (3) from the perspective of the government expenditure, policy effects and technological impacts, the feed-in tariff is the most effective policy, but the corresponding government expenditure is also very large; the price premium policy is also a very effective policy, and the corresponding government expenditure is smaller than that of the feed-in tariff policy; the cost-recovery policy is less attractive than the feed-in tariff and the price premium policy.
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    Renewable Portfolio Standards, the Strategic Behavior of Power Producers and Evolution
    ZHAO Xin-gang, REN Ling-zhi, WAN Guan
    2019, 27 (3):  168-179.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.017
    Abstract ( 510 )   PDF (1622KB) ( 328 )   Save
    The renewable portfolio standards (RPS) is a mandatory institution change for China to realize the energy low-carbon transition, and its success depends on the scientific institution design. The institution is constructive and evolutionary. RPS will coexist and evolve with power producers' strategic behavior in the long run while constructing the game rules of power producers' strategic behavior. The effects of institution quasi parameter and institutional environment related to the RPS on the strategic behavior of power producers are analyzed, based on the construction of the evolutionary game model between the RPS and the strategic behavior of power producers. The results indicate that the evolution game equilibrium between the RPS and the strategic behavior of power producers mainly depend on the relevant institution quasi parameters (such as quota, unit fine, the transaction cost of tradable green certificate market and the marginal cost margin of power producers). The scientific quota, higher unit fine, lower transaction cost and marginal cost margin can not only make the green certificate market more effective, but also make the mandatory institution change of RPS more successful. Therefore, to design the institution quasi parameters related to the RPS scientifically and strengthen the construction of institutional environment helps China to effectively implement the RPS.
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    Study on Energy Emergency Collaboration Considering Early and Current Resource Inputs
    LIU Xiao-yan, LV Tao
    2019, 27 (3):  180-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.018
    Abstract ( 393 )   PDF (1076KB) ( 271 )   Save
    A large number of stakeholders are involved in the energy emergency process. It is necessary for each region and each department to achieve multi-agent, multi-level, and multi-level collaborative linkages in order to efficiently respond to energy emergency. However, in the current process of China's energy emergency collaboration, the problems of temporary and over-reliance on the government are exposed. At the same time, scholars have relatively little research on energy emergency collaboration. Based on practice and theoretical status, the sudden energy shortage emergency collaboration between the government and the energy supply chain companies is divided into two cases. One is no previous emergency resources investment, and the other is a previous emergency resources investment. To establishing the model, a performance function is adopted to measure the synergistic performance brought by the emergency resources input of the government and the energy supply chain enterprises. It is also introduced variables to indicate the government's participation in the emergency collaboration process, and the compensation coefficient to measure the government's compensation for energy supply chain enterprises. Through the mathematical derivation of the government, the energy supply chain enterprises, and the two parties' common expected revenue function, it is obtained the optimal collaborative participation, optimal resource input, and optimal synergies in both scenarios. With comparative analysis of the two cases, it is showed that the optimal collaborative involvement degree which is affected by marginal collaborative benefit and compensation effort in both cases are same. The compensation effort of government is positively correlated with the collaborative involvement degree of energy supply chain companies, and the collaborative involvement degree of government is negatively correlated with the marginal collaborative benefit of energy supply chain companies. The emergency collaborative resource is positively related with the collaborative involvement degree of government, while negatively related with its compensation effort. The efficient daily emergency resource investment will help improve the current energy emergency collaboration benefit, and vice versa. Through the numerical analysis of examples, the results of the study were verified and explained visually. To improve energy emergency collaboration efficiency, it is recommended that the government should establish normalization emergency management system and clearly define the roles, rational division of labor. It is necessary to accelerate the construction of energy emergency compensation mechanism for mobilizing emergency initiative of energy supply chain enterprises and assuming their more responsibility.
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    Research on the Expert Identification Method of Online Negative Word-of-mouth Handling
    CAI Shu-qin, WANG Yang, WANG Yi-xing, QIN Zhi-yong, DOU Cong-ying
    2019, 27 (3):  189-197.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.019
    Abstract ( 453 )   PDF (1071KB) ( 267 )   Save
    In the era of Web2.0, social media is not only the access for users to get information, but also the platform for them to post and build a relationship. User participation, user-led and user creation have become a powerful tool for social media to attract users, enhance competitiveness and improve enterprise value, generating a large number of User Generated Content (referred to as "UGC") of great business value. As a unique form of UGC, Online Negative Word-of-Mouth (referred to as "ONWOM") is a kind of negative view or comment which the consumers express on the Internet. If the company does not respond to it in time, it will lead to a large area of dissatisfaction, resulting in damage to corporate reputation, brand value and other serious consequences. However, due to the large number, the fast speed of transmission and other characteristics of ONWOM, the company will face the dilemma of high costs, slow responses and resource shortages if just relies on the traditional manual processing method. In handling negative word-of-mouth, excessive participation of the company may made itself be suspected, resulting in the loss of credibility. Therefore, taking a small number of experts with more knowledge in UGC as a resource for ONWOM processing, a new way to deal with ONWOM for companies can be provided.
    Most studies in the field of expert recognition only focus on the knowledge capability of experts. However, it cannot meet the value demands of each subject in the processing of ONWOM. From the perspective of resources, a resource mapping framework of expert recognition is established, and the explicit and implicit resource mapping process based on it is analyzed. In addition to considering the ability which directly reflects the professional level of the experts, the emotional comfort ability when experts deal with ONWOM is comsidered, and emotional infection mechanism to obtain the quantitative indicators of emotional ability is used. Moreover, as a prerequisite for resource integration and emotional infection, the interaction degree is also introduced into the user's capacity characteristic space to construct the artificial neural network model for the expert recognition of ONWOM processing. By comparing the experimental results, it is found that the model proposed in this paper can significantly improve the recognition performance in the expert recognition of ONWOM processing. In addition, a new method for expert recognition is provided by the resource mapping framework proposed in this paper, and a new idea for understanding the ability structure of the expert of ONWOM processing is provided.
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    A Method Based on Hybrid Weighted Distance for Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS Multiple-attribute Decision Making
    ZENG Shou-zhen, MU Zhi-min
    2019, 27 (3):  198-205.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.020
    Abstract ( 557 )   PDF (870KB) ( 434 )   Save
    The aim of this paper is to present a technique based on the hybrid weighted distance (PFHWD) measure for Pythagorean fuzzy TOPSIS model. Firstly, the inadequacies for the existing Pythagorean fuzzy distance measures are analyzed in detail. Then, two new distance measures, namely the Pythagorean fuzzy ordered weighted distance measure and the PFHWD measure are presented to enhance Pythagorean fuzzy theory, some of their advantages are also explored. Furthermore, based on the proposed measures, a modified TOPSIS termed the PFHWD-TOPSIS, is developed for Pythagorean fuzzy multiple attribute decision making problems. Moreover, a revised relative coefficient is proposed to rank the potential alternatives. Finally, a numerical example concerning the service quality of domestic airlines is introduced to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed model. The research of this paper contributes to enrich the theory and application of Pythagorean fuzzy set.
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    Measuring S&T Efficiency and its Decomposition using a Two-stage DEA Model with Nested Parallel Structure
    XIONG Xi, GUAN Zhong-cheng, YANG Guo-liang, ZHENG Hai-jun
    2019, 27 (3):  206-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.021
    Abstract ( 452 )   PDF (1251KB) ( 486 )   Save
    Existing studies have applied the two-stage DEA model to the innovation activities and divided it into two stages:R&D process and transformation process.In order to obtain more information about different modes of transformation efficiency, the traditional two-stage DEA model is extended with the parallel structure inside,which is comprised of internal and external transformation. 14 institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences are selected as DMUs, and the weighted addition decomposition method is applied to calculate the overall efficiency and the efficiency of each stage.By contrasting to the traditional two-stage DEA model,the former model underestimates the transformation efficiency. The results show:The mean of total S&T innovation is at a low level and the R&D process efficiency is higher than the transformation efficiency,so it still needs to improve the efficiency of transformation.In the second process,internal transformation efficiency is higher than external, which contributes to the low transformation efficiency.Finally, all DMUs are divided into four categories and the realization path about how to improve S&Tinnovation is analyzed, by proposing the key breakthrough mode and the gradual breakthrough mode.
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