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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 January 2019, Volume 27 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    GAS-HEAVY Model for Realized Measures of Volatility and Returns
    SHEN Gen-xiang, ZOU Xin-yue
    2019, 27 (1):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.001
    Abstract ( 690 )   PDF (1131KB) ( 471 )   Save
    A new volatility model named GAS-HEAVY is introduced to model returns and realized measures of volatility jointly. The key features are fat-tailed distributions for returns and realized volatilities and autoregressive score-driven (GAS) model for dynamics of the latent volatility. By assuming a rescaled t distribution for daily returns and a rescaled F distributionfor realized volatility measures, the score dynamics for the latent volatility are robust to outliers and incidental large observations. Parameter restrictions are formulated to prove ergodicity and stationarity.Our simulation study shows that the new model fit data better than other alternatives. An empirical application of our model is provided to daily returns and 1-minute intraday high-frequency prices of Shanghai Composite Index,Shenzhen Component Index and CSI300 Index. The empirical evidences justify the superior volatility predictive ability of the new model in our paper.
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    International Comparison of Chinese Securities Market Competitiveness Based on DEA
    YI Rong-hua, SHAO Jie-hao
    2019, 27 (1):  11-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.002
    Abstract ( 568 )   PDF (886KB) ( 397 )   Save
    The securities market is the core of market economy. A securities market with high efficiency is necessary for the development of a country. The scale and competitiveness of the Chinese Securities Market is improving constantly in recent years, which is in accordance with the poor performance in the aspect of internationalization. Based on the research of Lo (2013) that analyzed the competitiveness and the ranking of the 45 main stock exchanges all over the world, internationalization indexes are introduced and the competitiveness of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange is further studied with the panel data. First, the dynamic evolution of competitiveness of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange is analyzed and the ranking of development speed of competitiveness of the 45 main stock exchanges is got with the DEA-Malmquist model and the panel data of 2008-2016(except2011). Secondly, the latest ranking of competitiveness of the 45 main stock exchanges is obtained with the context-dependent DEA model and the cross-section data of 2016. Besides, the ranking of internationalization of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2013 and the ranking in 2016 are compared to study the change of internationalization of Chinese securities market. The results show that the listing competitiveness and the trading competitiveness of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are promoting rapidly. The listing competitiveness of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the trading competitiveness of Shenzhen Stock Exchange are both at forefront, but the development of these two exchanges is disequilibrium especially in listing competitiveness. Compared to 2013, the degree of internationalization of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange is both improved, which indicates that the open policies such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and QFⅡ are positive to Chinese securities market. But they are still in a backward state, which might be the restraint of the improvement of competitiveness. For the sake of forging world-class securities market and achieving the goal of capital power, the successful experience of Singapore, Hong Kong and India should be learned, and the work of wiping off the policy-dependent stock market and internationalization especially the optimization dividend policy and shareholder protection, enriching the trade category, enlarging interconnection and establish "international market" and so on should be accomplished. Compared to similar past literature, internationalization indexes are introduced and the focus is put on dynamic evolution and policy effect of competitiveness of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from the view of international perspective.
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    Study on the Optimization of Investor Sentiment Measure Indicators in Chinese Stock Market
    LIU Xue-wen
    2019, 27 (1):  22-33.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.003
    Abstract ( 751 )   PDF (2617KB) ( 476 )   Save
    There are many indicators to measure investor sentiment in stock market.The method of constructing comprehensive investor sentiment index based on principal component analysis by Baker and Wurgler (2006) is widely used,the indicators used by them are subjective and arbitrary,so it is necessary to optimize these indicators.An open indicator optimization method system called Inverted Pyramid Filter can be constructed.First of all, primary indicators need to be selected,and the indispensable indicators are eliminated.Then,the irrelevant items are eliminated by correlation analysis,and the highly correlated items are eliminated by clustering analysis.Furthmore, the dimension of investor sentiment measurement and the sum of indicators are determined by principal component analysis.Additionally the principal component analysis is used to determine the dimensions of investor sentiment measures and the number of indicators.Finally,the most significant indicators in each dimension is selected by using the coefficient of variation method.The empirical analysis shows that the optimization of sentiment measurement indicators is a dynamic process,and different indicators should be selected to measure investor sentiment in different periods.Inverted Pyramid Filter model is suitable for any period of indicator optimization.The optimized investor sentiment index OISI constructed with the optimized index is compared with the unoptimized index CICSI,the OISI can better explain investor sentiment.This paper provides a method reference for the indicators optimization before the construction of the investor sentiment composite index,and prepares the objective index for the construction of the index,so that the index based on the optimized indicators can also be optimized,so as to better explain the overall investor sentiment in the stock market.Moreover,other research and practice related to investor sentiment can be better done.
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    Multi-period Portfolio Game Model Based on Relative Wealth Utility
    ZHOU Zhong-bao, REN Tian-tian, XIAO He-lu, WU Shi-jian, LIU Wen-bin
    2019, 27 (1):  34-43.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.004
    Abstract ( 705 )   PDF (1678KB) ( 313 )   Save
    Most existing portfolio optimization models assume that investors are independent. However, the investors especially institutional investors, usually affect each other in actual investment. Based on the portfolio optimization and Nash game theories, the competition relationship is considered into investors' decision-making, and a multi-period portfolio game model is constructed by maximizing the expected utility of the relative terminal wealth of each competitor. The close forms of the Nash equilibrium investment strategy and the corresponding value function are obtained. By using the empirical cumulative distribution function and the certainty equivalent, the Nash equilibrium investment strategy is compared with the traditional strategy in our simulations. The results show that the Nash equilibrium strategy is more effective for investors.
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    The Transmission Mechanism and Result of The Two-side Exchange Rate Risk in Supply Chains
    LIANG Xu-zhuo, NI De-bing, TANG Xiao-wo
    2019, 27 (1):  44-52.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.005
    Abstract ( 581 )   PDF (894KB) ( 352 )   Save
    With the observations that many firms in supply chains usually import inputs from their upstream foreign partners and sell their output both to domestic markets and to foreign markets, thus it is assumed that those focal firms are faced with both import and export exchange rate risks (i.e., two-sided exchange rate risks). To capture this observation, a supply chain game model is built and how those exchange rate risks are transmitted in the supply chain is examined. The supply chain consists of a foreign supplier, a manufacturer (the focal firm), a domestic retailer and a foreign retailer in a country that is different from that the supplier is operated in. The supply chain is operated under wholesale price contracts. The risk transmission is captured by how the variances of those two exchange rate volatilities affect the operations of the supply chain and the corresponding performance outcomes according to the approach of comparative static analysis. More specifically, with equilibrium results, it is showed that when those two-sided exchange rate volatilities are negatively correlated, (1)an increase in the variance of the import (export) exchange rate volatility leads to higher variances of the wholesale prices that the manufacturer offers to the supplier and the foreign retailer, the quantities that the manufacturer buys from the supplier and sells to the foreign retailer, the profits of the supplier, the manufacturer and the foreign retailer, and higher levels of expected profits of these three supply chain members; and (2) the variances of the wholesale price and the quantity that the manufacturer offers to the domestic retailer, the domestic retailer's expected profits and the corresponding variances all decrease for lower levels of the import (export) exchange rate volatility and increase for higher levels, implying a U-shaped risk transmission.On the other hand, when those two-sided exchange rate volatilities are positively correlated, (3) the variances of the wholesale prices that the manufacturer offers to the supplier and the foreign retailer, the quantities that the manufacturer sells to the foreign retailer and buys from the supplier,the profits of the supplier, the manufacturer and the foreign retailer, and the expected profits of these three supply chain members,all decrease for lower levels of the import (export) exchange rate volatility and increase for higher levels, implying a U-shaped risk transmission;(4) an increase in the variance of the import (export) exchange rate volatility results in higher variances of the wholesale prices and the quantity thatthe manufacturer offers to the domestic retailer and a higher expected profit with a corresponding higher variance for the domestic retailer.These results theoretically explore how two-sided exchange rate risks in terms of variances are transmitted in supply chains and highlight the key role of the correlation structure in two-sided exchange rate risk transmissions.
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    Online Retailers' Return Freight Policy in the E-Commerce Context
    ZHAO Xiao-min, HU Shu-hui
    2019, 27 (1):  53-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.006
    Abstract ( 676 )   PDF (1304KB) ( 437 )   Save
    According to the China Internet Network Information Center, by the end of June 2016, the number of Internet users in China reached 710 million, of which the number of online shopping users reached 448 million. Online shopping has become one of the main consumption ways in China. However, with the tremendous boost in online shopping, the phenomenon of high returns is particularly prominent. Some promotional policies further aggravate the high-frequency returns. A survey from Guangzhou Consumers Commission reported that 63.9% of the consumers returned the goods bought during "double 11", among which, only 18.87% of the returns was due to the quality, and 81.13% was non-defective returns. Online retailers face the challenges of high returns, especially the significant non-defective returns, which constantly lower the profitability of enterprise. Focusing on the reverse logistics freight caused by consumers' returns, this paper mainly compares three policies:consumer paying the return freight; retailer paying the return freight; consumer and retailer paying the return freight together. We study the online retailer's optimal price and profitability under different policies and highlight the influence of non-defective returns on the retailer's decision. The results show that in order to achieve maximum profit, the online retailer will choose different policies according to the proportion of non-defective returns. Specifically, when the proportion of non-defective returns is low, consumer paying the return freight is reasonable. When the proportion of non-defective returns is high, retailer paying the return freight is better. When the proportion of non-defective returns is moderate, the return freight should be shared by the consumer and retailer together. It is worth noting that the purpose of a return policy is to stimulate the demand growth, but sometimes a return policy maybe stimulate more returns rather than more demands. In that case, consumer paying the return freight will be the only choice for the online retailer to avoid irrational returns.
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    Strategic Choice Analysis for Supply Chain in ‘Cap and Trade’ System and Carbon Emission Reduction Technology
    ZHANG Li-Hao, DONG Kuan, ZHANG Rong
    2019, 27 (1):  63-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.007
    Abstract ( 757 )   PDF (1102KB) ( 490 )   Save
    This paper focuses on a two-stage supply chain consisting of one carbon-emission-dependent manufacturer and one supplier. The low-carbon preference customers are considered and the optimal strategy choices with ‘cap and trade’ policy and carbon emission reduction technology are investigated. If the carbon cap is not sufficient, the manufacturer may purchase extra carbon emission permit or adopt carbon reduction technology, or both of them to maximize the profits. By using the Newsboy model, it is found that the both of them policy will be the optimal choice for the manufacturer. The government should be cautious to implement carbon trading, because it will increase the total carbon emissions. In order to achieve the decrease in the total carbon emissions and enhance the economic benefits, the government can encourage the enterprises to invest in carbon reduction technology and set an appropriate carbon cap simultaneously.
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    Research on Risk-reward Strategy of Dual Channel Supply Chain with Stochastic Market Demand:From the Perspective of Quality and Price Competition
    LIU Xin-min, ZHAO Liang, WANG Lei, DING Li-li
    2019, 27 (1):  73-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.008
    Abstract ( 569 )   PDF (1207KB) ( 432 )   Save
    With the further aggravation of the social environment and market competition, the price-and-quality competition has become particularly fierce under the dual-channel supply chain model upon the online and offline, for example, mobile phone manufacturers, such as HUAWEI and Xiaomi, also supply products to D.Phone; Lenovo, Dell and other computer manufacturers supply to ONEZERO. In the context of multi-suppliers competition, the products sales and profits are not only affected by their own price and quality, but also other similar products, which has an impact on the profits of supply chain. What's more, due to the stochastic market demand, retailers need to bear the risk cost of certain requirements, which will increase retailers' ordering costs, reduce retailer's motivation to order, and make the total profit loss of the whole supply chain. The design of a reasonable demand risk compensation strategy can improve the profit of the overall supply chain under the dual-channel. Therefore, from the perspective of price-and-quality competition, the problem of dual-channel supply chain risk compensation under stochastic market demand is discussed, and the impact of demand risk compensation based on quality and price on the coordination of dual channel supply chain is further analyzed, and moreover, the impact of the degree of price-and-quality and the proportion of offline sales of suppliers on the equilibrium solution are analyzed. The risk compensation model is constructed based on quality and price in which the Nash equilibrium solution is obtained under the three situations:centralized supply chain decision making, no risk compensation and risk compensation. The results show that there is a feasible demand risk compensation mechanism to achieve the coordination of supply chain, and the demand risk compensation mechanism is more favorable for retailers. Demand risk compensation price is positively related with the wholesale price, and is negatively related with product quality level under the demand risk compensation strategy; the degree of price competition has a negative effect on the retailer's order quantity, and the effect on the total profit of the supply chain decreases with the degree of competition increasing, the degree of quality competition has a positive influence on the order quantity of retailer and supplier product quality level, inverted U type impact on the total profit of the supply chain; The demand risk compensation strategy can stimulate the retailer's ordering behavior, and strengthen the influence of the degree of price competition and quality competition on the order quantity and the total profit of the supply chain; In the supply chain system, the total profit of the supply chain is better than the total profit of the supply chain under the single channel marketing mode. The conclusion not only analyzes the influence of risk compensation strategy on the coordination of dual channel supply chain, but also clarifies the influence mechanism of price and quality competition on the behavior strategy. Different from previous researches, the innovation of this paper is reflected in the following aspects:First, considering the dual-channel supply chain model of online and offline and the existence of quality-and-price competition among suppliers, the three-side coordination among two suppliers and single retailer is analyzed. Secondly, considering the risk cost and the profit loss caused by the stochastic market demand in the supply chain, the demand risk compensation strategy based on price and quality is introduced, and the influence of demand risk compensation strategy on the coordination of dual-channel supply chain is analyzed.
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    Product Liability, Corporate Social Responsibility Preference and the Quality-quantity Coordination in Supply Chains
    FAN Jian-chang, NI De-bing, TANG Xiao-wo, HONG Ding-jun
    2019, 27 (1):  85-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.009
    Abstract ( 604 )   PDF (1114KB) ( 664 )   Save
    When product quality and product quantity (ordering quantity) are endogenous, how to achieve the quality-quantity coordination becomes an important question in supply chain management. Further, given that low-quality products usually cause harm to consumers and product liability regulations often require the manufacturer to compensate for consumers' losses, there arises another question of how product liability affects the quality-quantity coordination mechanism for supply chain members. Finally, if the focal firm in a supply chain is equipped with a corporate social responsibility (CSR) preference on consumer surplus, then how does the CSR preference affect the quality-quantity coordination?
    Focusing on these three questions, a two-stage game model is built to describe the operations of a supply chain where an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer conduct their product transaction via a wholesale price contract. In this model, it is assumed that the product is an experience good and may be in two different ex ante (before sales) quality states:high and low. The true quality level can not be observed by the consumers before sales, but after sales the consumers can learn. A low-quality product may cause harm to consumers. If the quality state is ex post (after sales) realized as low, the manufacturer chooses to recall (and remedy) the low-quality product or compensate for the consumers' losses according to some product liability regulations. On the other hand, the manufacturer can also choose to improve the quality level ex ante to reduce the probability for the low quality state to occur. Finally, it is assumed that the manufacturer, as the focal firm, is equipped with a CSR preference which is represented by the degree to which the manufacturer cares about consumer surplus. The decision sequence is as follows. Firstly, the manufacturer decides its product quality level and offers a wholesale price contract to the retailer. Secondly, the retailer decides its ordering quantity. Finally, the retailer sells the product to consumers in the final market.
    With this model, how the product liability, the CSR preference and the quality improvement efficiency affect the manufacturer's product quality choice, the contract relationship between the manufacturer and the retailer, the supply chain members' profitability and the consumer surplus are investigated. A quality-quantity coordination contract is also developed and the impacts of the product liability and the CSR preference on the quality-quantity coordination contract are discussed.
    The main results are as follows. (1) Product liability does not affect the manufacturer's quality choice, the ordering quantity, the supply chain members' economic profits and the consumer surplus, but raises the wholesale price. (2) A higher level of the manufacturer's CSR preference leads to a higher level of product quality, a higher ordering quantity, a higher economic profit for the retailer and a higher level of consumer surplus, but a lower economic profit for the manufacturer. (3) The quality improvement efficiency helps to enhance the product quality level, the ordering quantity, the retailer's economic profit, the supply chain total economic profit and the consumer surplus. (4) A proper combination of a quality improvement cost sharing contract and a quantity discount contract can effectively coordinate the operations of the supply chain. (5) Product liability raises the quantity discount, but decreases the retailer's share of the quality-improvement cost; on the other hand, the degree of the manufacturer's CSR preference has a negative impact on the quantity discount, but has no impact on the retailer's share of the quality-improvement cost.
    In this research, firstly, a theoretical rationale is furnished to understand the effects of product liability, the manufacturer' CSR preference and the quality improvement efficiency on the product quality decision, the product-transacting contract and the corresponding supply chain members' profitability. Secondly, the quality-quantity coordination contract provides a benchmark to coordinate supply chains operated under different product liabilities. Finally, the theoretical rationale and the coordination contract framework can provide practitioners with useful insight to deal with product-harm crises.
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    Dynamic Pricing Strategy for Perishable Food Considering Donation Behavior
    HU Han-li, CAO Yu, LI Qing-song
    2019, 27 (1):  99-109.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.010
    Abstract ( 563 )   PDF (1203KB) ( 336 )   Save
    Waste caused by inappropriate quality control and excessive inventories is a major challenge for perishable food management. The influence of donation behavior on the price decision of food companies is studied and multiple pricing strategies are considered, including single pricing strategy, twice pricing strategy and multi-level discount pricing strategy, thus the impacts of different pricing strategies on corporate profits are compared. Through numerical analysis, the result shows that:(i) The donation behavior can enhance the company's income and achieve better effects under the multi-level discount pricing strategy. However, the less discount times, the better the single pricing strategy for the company considering the donation. (ii) The initial quality, deterioration rate, discounting time point, donating time point and the tax return ratio of food are important factors affecting the pricing policy. If the quality discrepancy is larger, the profit of the company will decrease under the multi-level discount policy, while there appears an ascending trend when the donation is considered. When the deterioration rate is higher, the profit will be decreased under the single pricing strategy considering donation, but it will not affect much under the multi-level discount pricing strategy. When the discount time is closer to the donation time point, the company gains more profit under the multi-level discount pricing strategy considering donation; and when the donation time point is closer to the shelf life, the price strategy considering donation behavior will be superior to that without considering donation. In addition, the study also shows that the increase of the tax return ratio is not necessarily conducive to the pricing strategy under donation. (iii) The discount time has a significant impact on the profit of the company. It is found that the initial pricing and the profit of the company with donation considered is higher than those without consideration.
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    Study of Community Relationship of Multi-dimension Factors Influencing Consumer Purchase Decision-making in O2O Mode
    WANG Chong, CHEN Da-feng
    2019, 27 (1):  110-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.011
    Abstract ( 617 )   PDF (1241KB) ( 549 )   Save
    O2O is the subversion and innovation to the traditional electronic commerce, which rapidly develops in the recent years. However, the application of O2O lacks theory support. Therefore, from the perspective of online payment, the influencing factors system of consumer online payment decision-making is put forward. An empirical analysis is adopted of consumer online payment decision-making in O2O mode. Then, the social network analysis is adopted to establish the influencing factors community relationship model of consumer online payment decision-making in O2O mode. The sub-graph of the multi-dimension factors community relationship and the consumer online payment decision-making behavior patterns are extracted by mining and refining of the community relationship model. It is indicated that in comparison with the other variables, e-retailer's popularity, perceived quality of commodity and brand of commodity dominate the other multi-dimension factors. Making online payment decision, consumer synergistically considers both e-retailers' popularity and perceived quality of commodity, both brand of commodity and perceived quality of commodity, both online price of commodity and perceived quality of commodity, as well as overall balances both e-retailers' popularity and brand of commodity, both online price of commodity and brand of commodity. Finally, according to the results, the proposals of marketing strategy for online retailers in O2O mode are presented.
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    GERT Network Model About the Whole Dairy Industry Chain Quality Control Dominated by the Core Enterprise
    GUO Ben-hai, CHU Jia-na, ZHAO Ying-mei
    2019, 27 (1):  120-130.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.012
    Abstract ( 595 )   PDF (1022KB) ( 371 )   Save
    Quality is the basis for the survival of enterprises. With the people's living standard improving and consumption level promoting, the common goods cannot meet requirements of consumers. In the case of "Congenital deficiencies, the acquired development deformed ",China's dairy industry should spare no efforts to improving product quality and conducting quality control immediately to achieve better and faster development. Numerous studies focus on the causes and solutions of the dairy products quality security problems at home and abroad. But there is a lack of research on quality control based on the perspective of whole industry chain. Besides, it is urgent to deepen the research on the quality value of dairy quality. Most of researches have been analyzed in the angle of qualitative one, lacking the quantitative analysis of in the value flowing relationships and value increment among various bodies, which can not reveal intrinsic mechanism of the value formation, flowing and increment.Dairy Quality Control, a systematic engineering covering multi-link and multi-body, is difficult to implement for dramatic quality sensibility, complex multi-agent behaviors and interests. By analyzing the relationship of the dairy industry chain bodies, a quality control GERT network model based on the quality value flow is constructed and it proposes a quality control pattern dominated by the core enterprise. Then the computing result of parameters are compared in three hypothetical scenarios including the chain bodies unwilling to strengthen quality control, each body strengthening quality control independently and the core enterprise leading quality control in the whole industry network. It highlights the importance and necessity of the core enterprise leading in the model. Finally, it will find the key resources of quality control based on GERT Network model and provide the reference to the development of China's dairy industry.
    Studies have shown that the quality control in whole industry chain has obvious advantages under the dominance of core enterprises; To intensify the quality control in dairy products industry, steps should be taken from different aspects, especially the evident dominant status of core enterprises in this process. While the establishment of quality control systems under whole industry chain should be focused on the distribution of resources and allocation of interest. The efficiency of resources distribution has immediate relations with business competence, and the model of resources allocation has an effect in main party's enthusiasm. Therefore, the core enterprises should regard the balance of resources in quality control as initial point of working, they guarantee the increase of quality values in all industry chain through reasonable and ordered investment in capitals, technology, human resources, logistics restore and related experiences.
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    Tiered Pricing based Ongraded Quality of Used Parts and “Trade-in for Remanufactured” Subsidy
    LI Yan, LIN Xin-yi, DA Qing-li
    2019, 27 (1):  131-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.013
    Abstract ( 549 )   PDF (1183KB) ( 331 )   Save
    The "trade-in for remanufactured" subsidy has been piloted in China,by which the market purchasing behaviors of related new and remanufactured parts and the enterprise's pricing decisions are affected.Based on characteristics of the parts' different distribution channels, the market is segmented according to used part's quality grades in after-sale channel. In consideration of subsidy and customer's trade-in preference,the manufacturer's profit model of tiered pricing is constructed and piecewise optimized.With the optimized pricing strategies, the cost conditions for enterprise to build tiered remanufacturing system and the suggestions for government to award remanufactured partsubsidy qualification are concluded. Since the remanufacturing environment of leading and general enterprises is different, different example analyses are taken to show the subsidy's influences on pricing decisions of leading and general remanufacturing enterprises, and also the impacts on tiered remanufacturing decisions of general enterprise with changing customer's trade-in preference. Results indicate that tiered pricing can boost the overall profits of the remanufacturing system while the trade-in subsidy shows different effects on leading and general enterprises, so the timing and proportion of subsidy should be chosen based on the characteristics of the target industries and enterprises combined with other measures.
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    Effect of the Online Video Operator Free Trial on Marketing Strategy
    LI Zi-qing, TAN De-qing
    2019, 27 (1):  143-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.014
    Abstract ( 565 )   PDF (1044KB) ( 322 )   Save
    With the rise of online video operators' charging program free trial, yet little is known about the marketing strategy impact such as marketing size and profits of free trial. A game model is developed between the operator with his program premiered and the other operator with his program sequently showed. The impacts of free trial before high-quality operator premiere program on two operators optimal advertising level under ad-sponsored free program model, the program optimal price under payment-based program models and optimal program provision model are studied. The result shows that, if the high-quality operator provids enough free trial before high-quality operator's premiere program, he can gain the highest program price and the most profits. The enough free trial is the high-quality operator's optimal strategy. If the low-quality operator advertising unit revenue and unit adverting cost to an user meets certain conditions, the high-quality operator's enough free trial can shrink the low-quality operator's profits and prevent his free-ride. Under the high-quality operator enough free trial, payment-based program model is the high-quality operator's optimal marketing strategy and ad-sponsored free program model is the low-quality operator's optimal marketing strategy. Some managerial implications and application value for daily operation of online video operators are also provided.
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    Duration-Cost Optimization Model of Program of South-to-North Water Diversion Project under Restriction of Resources Supplied by Employer
    FENG Jing-chun, ZHU Xiao-jing, LI Ming, ZHANG Ke, XUE Song
    2019, 27 (1):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.015
    Abstract ( 516 )   PDF (1483KB) ( 247 )   Save
    Since 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce jointly released the Vision and Actions for Promoting the Building of the Belt and Road Initiative. Afterwards, more and more large and medium-sized construction projects are undertaken at home and abroad. In order to make sure that the three control objectives of duration, cost and quality can be implemented successfully, the program management of large and medium-sized construction projects came into being. Based on this, this paper focuses on the duration-cost optimization of program, and establishes a time-cost optimization model before the implementation of the program under the condition of resource constraints, then the initial network plan is optimized. After that, taking the penalty fee (f(T#em/em#)) into consideration, which is proposed by the employer to the contractor due to the delay of the bidding section on the non-critical path, the duration-cost optimization model during the implementation of the program is constructed, then the optimized network plan before implementation is dynamically adjusted, so that the net present value of the employer's payment can be minimized. Finally, the results of different duration-cost optimization are illustrated by an example:program X of South-to-North Water Diversion. The results show that the two-stage proposed model can actualize the optimization of program's cost control objective and provide the basis for the employer to determine the starting time of each bidding section in the program. In this way, the program optimization theory can be further improved.
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    Study on Government-industry-university-institute Collaborative Innovation Based on Tripartite Evolutionary Game
    WU Jie, CHE Xiao-jing, SHENG Yong-xiang, CHEN Lu, SHI Qin-fen
    2019, 27 (1):  162-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.016
    Abstract ( 804 )   PDF (1515KB) ( 581 )   Save
    Government-industry-university-institute collaboration innovation is the great motivation to implement the innovation-driven strategy, promote development of national and regional economics. However, there are some drawbacks in the mechanism of collaborative innovation of industry-university-institute that is led by industry, such as the weakened effect of government-leading, the low motivation and efficiency of colleges and universities which participate in it. According to these shortages, the government is viewed as the main body of collaboration innovation and then the tripartite evolutionary game model about collaboration innovation, which is guided by government, is led by university and is with the participation of industry, is constructed. In order to figure out the game evolution strategies of government, industry and university in different situation, the strategy choices among the government, industry and university during the collaborative innovation process are analyzed. Providing the collaboration innovation center constructed by Jiangsu Province as a case, the factors that influence the strategy choices of government-industry-university-institute collaboration innovation are studied by simulation. The result reveals that the influence degree of government, industry and university's willingness is different from each other. The enterprises' behavior to participate in collaboration innovation is mostly likely to be influenced by the market behaviors. Instead, the colleges' behavior to attend collaboration innovation are more likely to be influenced by the willingness of government, and the enterprises are more sensitive to the college's willingness. Different government motivation mechanisms affect the enterprises and university respectively. The policy support of government is more attractive to the enterprises, and the financial support impacts the universities more. Moreover, the enterprise is more sensitive to the penalty and the income distribution. The enterprise takes the profit maximization as the goal, while the colleges aim at the scientific research achievement and developing the talents. And also the change of the penalty and interest distribution affects the enterprise behavior choices more. In this article, the government is taken as the behavior main body to analyze the collaboration innovation game with the enterprise and the college. And the study provides the reference significance to the tripartite evolutionary game model of government-industry-university-institute.
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    Study on Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Mean-Standard Deviation Preference Distance Measure Using Hesitant Intuitionistic Fuzzy Linguisticterm Sets
    LIU Dong-hai, LIU Yuan-yuan, CHEN Xiao-hong
    2019, 27 (1):  174-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.017
    Abstract ( 564 )   PDF (966KB) ( 395 )   Save
    In many multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems,due to the complexity and fuzziness of the decision making environment, many attributes should be assessed in a quantitative form. In this case, decision makers can't just use single-value linguistic term to express their preferences because they are hesitant with decision information, they often provide the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic term set to depict the decision information. As far as we know, existing studies often used the subscript of linguistic terms directly in the process of operations, which can't consider the semantic environment. This may cause information distortion, but the linguistic scale function can solve this problem. Therefore, the Hamming distance of mean-standard deviation with preference between hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic term set based on linguistic scale function is defined, the related properties are also proved.Then the multiple attribute decision making method of TOPSIS and TODIM is proposed. These two methods can solve the ranking of alternatives effectively in multiple attribute decision making problems. Furthermore, in order to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness, the same numerical example concerning construction company bidding schemes are sorted by using these two methods. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the preference parameters on the ranking result and comparision analysis with other method are also discussed.
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    Method of Screening Evaluation Indicators Based on Circle Ill-Condition Index Analysis
    CHEN Hong-hai
    2019, 27 (1):  184-193.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.018
    Abstract ( 614 )   PDF (988KB) ( 361 )   Save
    The existing researches delete the relatively unimportant indicators in few indices (mainly including any pair indicators) with high correlation to prevent the high information overlap from distorting the comprehensive evaluation results, which can improve the information overlap of few indicators but is not available to ensure that of the indices set is not high. In this article, a new method of screening indices with high information overlapping is presented. The indicators of the greatest contribution to the overall overlap of residual indicators are deleted successively until the information overlap of all remaining indicators is not high so far, since an indicator makes greater contribution to the information overlap of the indices set if the decrease of ill-condition index for the indices set is lager when it is removed. Furthermore, the dominated one in any pair of remaining indicators with high correlation is deleted to avoid high information overlap between the individual indicators while the overall information overlap of the indices set is not high. The reduction ratio of ill-condition index for the indices set and the number of deleted indicators are used to illustrate the efficiency of reducing the overall information overlap for the indices set, which tests the relative rationality of the suggested method that is more efficient than the correlation analysis method for reducing the overall information overlap for the indices set. The above findings enrich the theoretical research of the indices screening methods, helpfully complements the comprehensive evaluation method, and facilitates the researches in related fields.
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    A Generalized Sample Interval DEA Model with Only Output
    YI Ru, MA Zhan-xin
    2019, 27 (1):  194-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.019
    Abstract ( 581 )   PDF (982KB) ( 421 )   Save
    When multiple performance measures are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the decision-making units, the decision makers often compare these decision units with the pre-specified criteria (sample units). Because of the complexity and uncertainty of the objective things, the index information of sample units and decision unit must be given in the form of interval numbers. According to the three cases of the interval number of the evaluation index value of the sample unit or the decision unit, or the evaluation index values of both of them, it is established respectively that the generalized interval DEA model with only output (IS-DEA model, S-IDEA model and IS-IDEA model) based on the sample unit to evaluate the effectiveness of the decision making unit,and three types of generalized interval DEA models with output are further given according to the index types-benefit, cost and hybrid. At the same time, the meaning of the model, the solving methods, the related properties, the effectiveness classification and sequencing of decision making units of these models are discussed. Finally, an example of comprehensive performance evaluation of commercial banks is given to verify its feasibility and effectiveness.The method proposed in this paper extends the relative efficiency of the traditional DEA method, which is based on the effective decision unit, to evaluate the relative efficiency of the decision making unit, which is based on the arbitrary reference set, and extends the index value to the interval value. These models have their own advantages and application fields and can be chosen according to practical problems.
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    Research on the Efficiency Evaluation of Emergency Medical Rescue Process after Earthquake
    SUN Hua-li, ZHAO Zhe, LIU Tao, XUE Yao-feng
    2019, 27 (1):  205-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.020
    Abstract ( 607 )   PDF (1356KB) ( 402 )   Save
    Earthquakes seriously threatened the safety of the people and affected the stable development of the whole society. In the face of complex and highly uncertain earthquakes, the rapid and effective implementation of emergency medical rescue is the most important way to save lives and reduce losses after the earthquake. The arrangement of emergency medical rescue process and the allocation of rescue resources are directly related to the efficiency of emergency medical rescue. The normal process of emergency medical rescue after earthquake was put forward through case analysis in this paper. Then the fuzzy stochastic Petri net model of the emergency medical rescue process was constructed by using the fuzzy stochastic Petri net theory. And according to the isomorphic relation between the fuzzy stochastic Petri net and the Markov chain, the system state of the steady-state probability of the expression could be derived, based on which key links could be found. On this basis, considering the relationship between the medical resources and rescue efficiency,the timeliness assessment function is adopted to evaluate the implementation efficiency of the key links, and the result that the same resource ratio has the optimal value was derivable from theory. Taking "Wenchuan earthquake" as an example, the changes of steady-state probability under different conditions were obtained by both dynamic and static analysis, and the key links of the emergency medical rescue process after earthquake were defined. In the rescue process, the input amount of resources was taken as independent variable, and the optimal resource ratio of the key link in the case of fixed medical resources was obtained by numerical simulation.Accordingly, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for emergency medical rescue after earthquake were presented, which could improve the efficiency of emergency medical rescue and provide decision support for the deployment of emergency medical rescue for earthquake disaster.
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