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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 September 2016, Volume 24 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Study on CSI 300 Stock Index Futures Overnight Risk Based on CAViaR Model
    JIAN Zhi-hong, ZENG Yu-feng, LIU Xi-teng
    2016, 24 (9):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.001
    Abstract ( 1816 )   PDF (1213KB) ( 1845 )   Save
    Financial futures market is an important part of modern financial market systems in China. However, financial derivatives have natural properties of high-yield and high risk.Once a futures risk event occurs, it will cause great destructive effect to the whole financial markets.So investors have always been paying great attention to the prevention of futures' overnight risk. However, little work has been done to detect volatility characteristics and risk features of overnight return.
    By taking CSI300 stock index futures for sample in this paper,CAViaR model is adopted to directly calculate the common VaR of overnight return. Nevertheless, considering rare data available during optimization in extreme quantiles, the estimation results may be biased. Therefore, a new framework, which combining extreme value theory and CAViaR model, is built to estimate the extreme overnight risk and analyze the dynamic characteristic of different quantiles both in left tail and right tail.Then both Kupiec LR(likelihood ratio) test and dynamic quantile test are used to backtest the accuracy of these models.
    The empirical results are summarized as follows: (1) overnight return exhibits stylized facts of positive skewness, leptokurtosis and non-normal distribution. But it lacks of long-term memory property. (2) The three CAViaR models have strong predictivity power to the common overnight risk, among which the AS model performs best, while there is no significant difference between SAV model and IGARCH model. (3) After adding the extreme theory to the CAViaR model, the newly-constructed CAViaR-EVT model still can accurately depict the dynamic process of overnight risk in extreme low quantiles. Moreover, its forecast results are more reasonable than EVT model and GARCH-EVT models.
    Important practical and social implications are suggested. The CAViaR model and CAViaR-EVT model offer useful practical approaches to forecast futures' overnight risk. Moreover, it also provides a theoretical reference to carry out effective risk management and monitor activities for the Chinese stock index futures investors and regulators, such as position limits and margin ratio.
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    A SVM-GARCH Model for Stock Price Forecasting Based on Neighborhood Mutual Information
    ZHANG Gui-sheng, ZHANG Xin-dong
    2016, 24 (9):  11-20.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.002
    Abstract ( 1963 )   PDF (1756KB) ( 1598 )   Save
    In order to overcome the limitations of the traditional linear model in dealing with the nonlinearity in time series, a novel SVM-GARCH forecasting model is proposed based on the neighborhood mutual information. By constructing high dimensional input variables, the proposed nonlinear model not only absorbs the historical information in the time series data but also incorporates the stock market information in different regions through feature selection by the neighborhood mutual information. Empirical studies demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to the traditional linear ARMA-GARCH model in terms of data denosing, trend discrimination and prediction accuracy etc.
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    Internal Control, Over-investment and Corporate Credit Risk
    XU Chao-hui, ZHUO Zong-fang
    2016, 24 (9):  21-27.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.003
    Abstract ( 1540 )   PDF (850KB) ( 1418 )   Save
    In the presence of global economic slowdown and China's increasing economy downward pressure, the risk, especially the corporate credit risk is worthy of attention. The corporate credit risk amplification is closely correlated with business managers of over-investment characteristics. How to achieve effective control corporate credit risk has become one of the focus fields of management system. Therefore, in this study, using Chinese firms that issued Type A-shares in the SSE and SZSE from 2009 to 2014, whether over-investment lead to credit risk is examined, and further whether the improvement of internal control can effectively restrains the credit risk caused by over-investment is examined, and then whether the above effect of internal control is influenced by the nature of the firms' ultimately controllers is investigated. It is found that the corporate credit risk can significantly increase due to over-investment. Moreover, improved internal control is conducive to curb the corporate credit risk resulting from the firm's over-investment, but the role of internal control is weaker in private enterprises. These findings indicate that the construction of internal control system of state-owned enterprises has achieved certain results with government promotion, and the internal control of private enterprises need to be stepped up further in order to reduce the risks involved in developing. The main contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)our findings provide new empirical evidence for the stakeholders such as managers and investors to highly emphasis and build the enterprise internal control system construction and enhance controlling credit risk; (2)it also reveals the effect of internal control on credit risk is influenced by property right, which furnishs an elicitation to the reform of the state-owned enterprises and gets up the very good exemplary role for the construction of internal control of private firms, thereby provides a new basis for the Chinese government to promote the construction of internal control.
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    The International Pricing Power of Chinese Metal Futures Market Based on Information Spillover
    ZHU Xue-hong, CHEN Jin-yu, SHAO Liu-guo
    2016, 24 (9):  28-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.004
    Abstract ( 1490 )   PDF (1295KB) ( 1651 )   Save
    With the further development of economic globalization and the increasing influence of Chinese factor, the price linkage mechanism of domestic and foreign metal futures markets as well as international pricing issues have drawn public's attention. Based on the multi-dimensional information spillovers and by taking the examples of SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange), LME (London Metal Exchange) and COMEX (New York Commodity Exchange), Directed Acyclic Graphs and Information Spillover Index model are used to study the dynamic linkage between domestic and foreign copper futures markets from 1994 to 2015,and the current situation and dynamic trend of international pricing power of Chinese copper futures market are also measured. The results show that the return spillovers are much stronger than volatility spillovers,and the dynamic of return and volatility spillovers show significant difference, the return spillovers display a significant increasing trend, while the volatility spillovers are more influenced by extreme events like financial crisis. Furthermore,the international pricing power of SHFE copper market shows the characteristics of stages.It presents a gradually rising trend before October 2003, then falls back, and significantly improves after 2007. But the information spillover strength from international market to SHFE copper market is higher than the foreign overflow of SHFE copper market,which demonstrats that the international pricing power of Chinese copper futures market is still relatively weak.Our findings can not only provide valuable market information for market participants and regulators, but also have important theoretical value and practical significance for correctly understanding the role of Chinese metal futures market in international commodity pricing, while also accelerats the development of Chinese metal futures market.
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    Interests Coordination Mechanism of University-Industry Network Cooperation Based on Optimized Shapley Value——A Case Study in Industrial Technology Innovation Strategy Alliance
    ZHANG Yu, JIAN Li-rong, LIU Si-feng, ZHAO Huan-huan, LIU Yong
    2016, 24 (9):  36-44.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.005
    Abstract ( 1661 )   PDF (996KB) ( 1243 )   Save
    Problem origin- With the rise of complex product systems(CoPS) collaborative development, the linear cooperative mode of university-industry cooperation(UIC) in the past does not adapt to the current innovation activities, and is gradually being replaced by the network mode. The network model is still on the initial stage, and there are some problems about cross-organizational coordinated management,talents accumulation, knowledge flow effectively, benefit allocation and so on.
    Accurate narration of the problem- Industrial technology innovation strategy alliance is taken as an example, the interests coordination problem of innovation subjects in the process of cooperation is studied from the perspective of contract design. The structure of university-industry cooperation network mode is similar with the scale-free network and can be regarded as the structure of core-participating subject. The core subject and the participating subjects engage in UIC with contract. In order to pay the remuneration of the participating subjects, the core subject takes out a portion of the profits as a reward to the participating subjects in addition to the fixed remuneration. Therefore, how to allocate the profits to effectively promote every participating subjects to work hard according to the contract is the focus of this paper.
    Design/methodology/approach- Based on Shapley value, using knowledge sharing, the subject of knowledge level, the amount of investment and the ability of resisting risk as the main measurement factors of interests coordination, interests coordination mode of university-industry network cooperation is built. At same time, cooperative ability is condered as adjustment coefficient in order to optimize the interest allocation.
    Thinking-First of all, in the background of the industrial technology innovation strategy alliance, the assumed condition is described and benefit allocation model of university-industry network cooperation is set up. Secondly, in the above model, the core subject, how to coordinate interests is analyzed. That is to find out the factors of interests coordination, determine comprehensive evaluation method of the factors, and optimize the distribution of interests with the network collaborative capability. At last, with the optimization of the interests coordination, the benefit allocation of industrial technology innovation strategic alliance is designed.
    Research findings- Through the factor of network coordination ability, the optimization of the interests coordination of the participating subjects is realized. In the optimized benefit allocation model, if the participants in the high level of work, it should be a positive return; if the low level of work, it should be negative return.
    Data explanation of the case- Taking rail transport in Jiangsu Province industry technology innovation strategic alliance for example, nodes 6, node 15 and node 16 of the UIC network diagram are respectively analyzed. The result is the interests of node 6 declining, and the drop part of the benefit value is incorporated into the node 15 and node 16. That means the collaborative innovation ability of node15 and node 16 in the alliance are strong, and the collaborative innovation ability of node 6 is weaker than the other two nodes.
    Effect and value- In the allocation of interests of the innovation subjects, the cooperative ability between the subjects is taken into atcount, and a reference method is provided for the interests coordination of the university-industry network cooperation.
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    Research on Substitution Effect and Urbanization Effect on Energy Consumption of the Logistics Industry
    WANG Fu-zhong, SHEN Zu-zhi
    2016, 24 (9):  45-52.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.006
    Abstract ( 1555 )   PDF (1157KB) ( 1288 )   Save
    The logistics industry acts as a complex service industry, and recently it attracts attention of all levels of government. Based on the discussion for urbanization process and energy consumption of the logistics industry, by using the Cobb-Douglas production function, in which energy is as an input row, an energy demand theory is proposed in this paper. It shows the energy inputs willingness of the logistics industry changed with the price of various types of inputs and outputs. And then, a theoretical analysis is made for the substitution effect and urbanization effect on energy consumption of the logistics industry. There has no similar studies from this point of view before. From the view point of the substitution effect, because there exist numerous types of energy in the logistics industry, and the logistics industry relies on gasoline, diesel fuel and electricity, there are alternatives between the individual energy utility. From the viewpoint of energy input and other initial input factors, there is also an alternative relationship between capital, labor and energy. From the viewpoint of the urbanization effect, the logistics industry will increase energy consumption because of transfer of rural population to urban areas. Then, an econometrics equation is established and corresponding parameter estimation is finished. The panel data is used and fixed effect estimations are done. The empirical results show that the electricity consumption of the logistics industry can significantly substitute for gasoline and diesel consumption, and then reduce the dependence on gasoline and diesel oil. The process of urbanization, the logistics network and domestic trade development also can promote gasoline and diesel consumption of the logistics industry. Case studies show that, in view of the customer for the logistics of environmental protection and low-carbon high demand, Hangzhou Tangshi logistics headquarters Ltd has replaced diesel forklifts by the use of electric forklifts since early 2014 because electric power consumption can achieve a better alternative to diesel consumption, namely can achieve environmental protection and cost savings, and also, the electric forklifts are more friendly to the environment than the diesel forklifts, and the electric forklifts have lower maintenance cost than the diesel forklifts, and the electric forklifts have lower day running cost than the electric forklift, and the electric forklifts have longer life than the diesel forklifts. Suggestions: the governments should improve the energy consumption structure of the logistics industry in order to go on a low energy consumption of the road; the governments should promote the application of electric cars in the logistics industry; the governments should reasonably promote the urbanization development and strengthen the collaborative development of internal and foreign trade and the logistics industry. Taking measures to further promote energy-saving technology in the logistics industry and logistics enterprises to strengthen energy-saving awareness, which has positive implications for the logistics industry to reduce energy consumption.
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    A Research of Retailer's Countervailing Power Based on Heterogeneity Consumer Preference
    LI Kai, SU Hui-qing, LIU Zhi-hui
    2016, 24 (9):  53-63.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.007
    Abstract ( 1606 )   PDF (1385KB) ( 1474 )   Save
    This research topic cames from the argument about the countervailing power. Most of literature concentrate on the characteristics of suppliers and retailers, but do not reach relatively consistent conclusions and could not accurately distinguish the sources of the countervailing power from the changes in the industrial structure or from retailers' behavior. In particular, factors outside the industrial chain, such as preferences and behavior of the consumers, have important implications for the accurate study of the formation mechanism of the countervailing power. In this study heterogeneous consumer preferences are introduced into a dynamic game model, and the formation mechanism and effects of countervailing power are considered. The results show that the heterogeneous consumer preference is a necessary condition for the supplier and the retailer with stronger consumer preference to negotiate and to cooperate. However, they will negotiate and reach an agreement only when the profit sharing rule is within a certain interval. When consumer preferences towards the retailers are heterogeneous, the dominant retailer possesses a stronger bargaining capacity. The retailer's countervailing power increases with its consumer preference. In addition, countervailing power can improve the consumer's utility as well as the social welfare. The existing literature about the formation of the countervailing power are enriched and some theoretical reference for the firms and regulatory agencies is provided through this study.
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    Research on Option Prioritization for Strength of Preference Based on the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution
    HOU Yu-hang, XU Hai-yan
    2016, 24 (9):  64-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.008
    Abstract ( 1831 )   PDF (1145KB) ( 1285 )   Save
    Strength of preference is incorporated into the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to enhance intensity of relative preference. It is very important to obtain a ranking of strength of preference based on option prioritization for modeling module. The option prioritization approach for simple preference is extended to strength of preference in this paper. The proposed approach is employed to the "Water Pollution Conflict in Lanzhou" in which there are three decision makers with strength of preference. The conflict model is established and then the process of this conflict's negotiations and consultations is simulated. Finally, the equilibria of this model are obtained using the decision support system based on GMCR. The results from this research provide a valuable view for the sustainable development of China's economy.
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    Project Investment Decision Considering Background Risks
    ZHANG Yao, GUAN Xin, SUN Yang, ZUO Fei
    2016, 24 (9):  71-80.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.009
    Abstract ( 1560 )   PDF (12591KB) ( 958 )   Save
    In the process of project investment decision, investors face various risks. Some are project risks from the project itself. Some are background risks from exogenous uncertainty, such as interest rate risk, inflation risk,and so on. Based on the different effects that background risks have on the investment wealth, the background risks can be divided into additive background risks and multiplicative background risks. In practice, investors often face the two kinds of background risks as well as project risks. Besides, there often exist correlations between the background risks and project risks. The changes of the background risks will usually lead to corresponding changes of the project risks, which makes project investment decision become more complicated. Thus, it is necessary to study the problems of project investment decision considering the background risks and the correlations between the project risks and background risks.
    According to the literature review, most studies on background risks focus on the impact of some kind of the background risks on the investor's risk attitude, risky asset allocation, and individual portfolio selection. The researches on project investment decision considering the background risks are limited, and those considering the additive and multiplicative background risks simultaneously are few. Therefore, a decision analysis method is proposed. In the method, project investment decision models are constructed considering the two kinds of background risks as well as project risk, and the effects of the correlations between the background risks and project risk on the investment decision are analyzed.
    First of all, the project investment decision model is constructed, which considers the additive background risk and project risk and the correlations between them. In this case, the analytic solution of the optimal investment value can be obtained. When the correlation coefficient is in a certain range, there exists the optimal investment value which can maximize the certainty equivalent of the expected investment profit. Then, with respect to the situation of the multiplicative background risk, a project investment decision model is also constructed. By the simulation analysis of the model, it can be concluded that the optimal investment value exists, and the correlation coefficient between the multiplicative background risk and project risk has effect on investment decision.
    Further, the investment decision model considering the two kinds of background risks is constructed. In the model, the correlation coefficients between the additive background risk and project risk and those between the multiplicative background risk and project risk are both considered. And, the monte carlo simulation is used to analyze the impacts of the correlations on investment decisions under different situations. On the basis of the analysis, the results can be obtained that there exists optimal investment value in any case. And, the influence of the correlations between the additive background risk and project risk on the investment decision is weakened. In addition, there are differences in the certainty equivalent and optimal investment value compared with the situation of the multiplicative background risk alone.
    Finally, the research conclusions and limitations are summarized. Our study implies that different background risks and correlation coefficients can make the optimal investment value and investment profit different. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the two kinds of background risks and the correlations between them and the project risk in the process of the project investment decision. The research conclusions can also provide decision support for investors facing with the problem of project investment decision in practice.
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    The Optimal Extraction Model of Exhaustible Energy Resources
    YAN Xiao-xia, ZHANG Jin-suo, ZOU Shao-hui
    2016, 24 (9):  81-90.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.010
    Abstract ( 1530 )   PDF (20895KB) ( 647 )   Save
    Exhaustible Energy resources are an important guarantee of social sustainable economic development and national security. Considering influence factors, such as resources stock, technology progress, resource prices, costs, market structure, policy and so on, an integrated optimization model of each department is established to maximize revenue target of the productive sector and the energy supply sector, and to maximize utility of consumers, each variable rate is solved while the objective function achieving optimal at the same time, and the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis are done. The results show: Technological progress is the key factor that affects the price and extraction growth rate of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources; scale returns and inter-period substitution elasticity of the final productive sector influence the extraction growth rate of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources; if scale returns of the final productive sector is unchanged, the extraction of exhaustible and non-exhaustible energy resources is unchanged. At last, policy recommendations in China are proposed: the technical progress should be broken through to regulate the price and extraction of energy resources. The scale return of the productive sector should beincreased in order to achieve energy saving targets. Within the next few years, the price of the exhaustible energy resources will continue to decline, the government should make a strategic plan in advance and allocate resources rationally, and promote the speed of transformation and upgrading in exhaustible energy resources enterprises.
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    The Impact of Software Protection for Two-sided Price Strategies of Software Platform
    CHENG Gui-sun, LI Qian
    2016, 24 (9):  91-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.011
    Abstract ( 1562 )   PDF (936KB) ( 1086 )   Save
    To characterize the impact of the software protection for the two-sided user pricing strategies of the software platform, a Hotelling model of the oligopoly competition of software platform is built considering the consumers and software developers' different access to software platform and the oligopoly market structure of software platform, which compares and analyses the relationship between the software protection and two-sided user price strategies of the e software platform. The results show under the two-sided end-user' singlehoming, the users' access fee and the software developers' license fee depend on the strength of their cross-group network effects and the users' access fee decrease with better software protection , but the license fee increase with better software protection. However, under the users' singlehoming and the software developers' multihoming, there are inverse correlation between the users' access fee and the strength of two-sided end-user' cross-group network effects, but the license fee is proportional to the strength of user' cross-group network effects and is inversely proportional to the strength of software developers' cross-group network effects. The impact of software protection on the users' access fee, depends on the comparison of marginal effect of the users' and software developers' cross-group network effects. These conclusions have important referential significant to the software protection and pricing strategies.
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    Research on the Biomass Fuel Supply Based on Foundation Organization Pattern
    TAN Qin-liang, DENG Yan-ming, ZHAO Jian-ying, WEI Yong-mei, ZHANG Xing-ping
    2016, 24 (9):  99-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.012
    Abstract ( 1349 )   PDF (881KB) ( 1119 )   Save
    It is very difficult to collect biofuel, which is a main constraint of developing the biomass generation industry. Biofuel collecting mode plays a significant role in promoting the biomass power industry. In this paper, two dynamic game theory models are built: (1) Optimizing the economic benefits of farmer, economic organization and biomass power plant under tradition mode; (2) maximizing the utilities of these three parties with introduction of foundation organization, i.e. the village committee organizes the farmers to collect the biomass feedstock, part of whose revenue belongs to the farmers and the rest is utilized for the village's infrastructure construction. The income is divided to two parts; one owes to farmers, the other is used for building infrastructure. The results demonstrate that the supply amount of biomass fuels and the price offered by organizations to the peasants have positive correlation relationship with feed-in tariff, while negative correlation with the cost of biomass fuels transportation, storage, and preprocess. Moreover, in the mode of foundation organization, the coefficient of the utility function has impact to some extent on the supply amount of biomass fuels and the benefit to peasants delivered by foundation. The biomass fuels supply amount and the peasant's income in the foundation organization mode are higher than those in the tradition mode. With the incentives from government, the utilities of the farmer and organization present significant, as well as the economic benefit of biomass power plant,increase.
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    Consumer-Generated Reviews Based on Social Learning Theory: Implications for Purchase Decision
    FENG Jiao, YAO Zhong
    2016, 24 (9):  106-114.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.013
    Abstract ( 2009 )   PDF (5302KB) ( 1783 )   Save
    Consumer-generated reviews play an important role in improving sales, and making purchase decisions, so it has become a hot topic of academic study. Based on social learning theory, Bayesian and Gaussian updated formula, mathematic models are established to analyze different influence of volume of consumer-generated reviews and rating of consumer-generated reviews on consumers' purchase decisions, and then the relationship between volume of consumer-generated reviews and rating of consumer-generated reviews is deeply discussed, and numerical experiments and practical data from Taobao.com and Amazon.com are also used to verify the effectiveness of the models and results. The results show that, the rating of consumer-generated reviews is decreasing as the growth of the volume of consumer-generated reviews, and the decline of the rating of consumer-generated reviews gradually slows down. But when the rating of consumer-generated reviews is (almost) converged into the real quality, the volume of consumer-generated reviews has little impact on the rating of consumer-generated reviews. When the volume of consumer-generated reviews is independent of the rating of consumer-generated reviews, the rating of consumer-generated reviews has a positive effect on purchase decision, and the volume of consumer-generated reviews has a positive effect on purchase decision of high-quality product, but not has a positive effect on purchase decision of low-quality product. The volume of consumer-generated reviews and the rating of consumer-generated reviews play different roles in purchase decisions of different products in different selling periods, and the research findings help online retailers adopt suitable marketing strategies.
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    Similar Behavior of Corporate Social Responsibility Performance in the Social Network
    LIU Ji-han, WANG Jian-qiong
    2016, 24 (9):  115-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.014
    Abstract ( 1680 )   PDF (1076KB) ( 1427 )   Save
    China is a typical country where social network is such an important role that its function should hot be ignored. Recent years, a few companies in China vaguely have some similar characteristics in the social responsibility performance. In this paper the similar behavior of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance in the social network is explored by using the data from China's listed companies. The data about the management and finance is collected from CSMAR database and RESSET database, and the CSR performance's score is from RKS Rating. Degree Centrality,Betweenness Centrality and Closeness Centrality are used to reflect the social network centrality, and the size of the company and the Sustainable Growth Rate is made to be the Control Variables. It is found that, companies with social network ties will have the similar behavior of CSR performance. If the company is in a core position, or it can spread information much easier, or it has stronger controlling force than others in the social network, other companies which are associated with it will have more similarities of CSR performance. Compared to the core position of a company in the social network, it has a far more far-reaching impact on the communication ability and the control ability of the information. Therefore, using the core company is suggested to drive other companies which have ties with it. This conclusion will help us to improve the corporate social responsibility performance in China.
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    A Two-stage Operation Model for Emergency Management Based on Information Dynamic Updating In Earthquake Rescue
    LIU Shu-yue, ZHU Jian-ming, HUANG Jun, SUN Jun-hong
    2016, 24 (9):  124-132.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.015
    Abstract ( 1365 )   PDF (995KB) ( 955 )   Save
    Emergency supplies allocation is an important problem in emergency management. However, uncertain information of the disaster makes it hard to allot materials accurately and efficiently.In this paper, by focusing on the description and update of uncertain information, emergency supplies allocation strategy when earthquake occurs is studied. To describe the disaster, five factors are selected and different situations are constructed based on historical data. The information update process is described as the acknowledgement of the probability of each factor. Based on the updating of disaster information, the rescue process is divided into 2 stages: black stage and grey stage. In black stage, deciders only know magnitude and epicenter of this earthquake, therefore a robust model based on different situations is built. This model generates a robust result that considers the worst situation. Also, in this stage, historical information is used to generate situations to support robust model. In grey stage, damage index of each area updates successively, so that seismic intensity circle can be updated accordingly, and because of which, demand for each kind of material of each area can be updated. Then unsatisfying rate is computed, and a programming model is proposed for following supply allocation. Finally, by comparing our model against a model without information updating, experiment results show that our model has its advantages.
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    Pricing Policy for a Class of Fresh Goods with Survival and Hazard Characteristics
    WANG Xian-jie, HUANG Jia-wei, WANG Shu-yun
    2016, 24 (9):  133-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.016
    Abstract ( 1505 )   PDF (1283KB) ( 1162 )   Save
    In recent years, the supply chain of cold chain has become increasingly frequent and the fresh product occupies an important proportion. Fresh product is a special kind of perishable commodity, which has a random life cycle and can be influenced by sales. So, retailers tend to make price adjustments based on the freshness of the product. The time of changing price is particularly important. In the case of no effect on normal consumption, the retail will take the price strategy to ensure sufficient profit.
    The ordering and pricing decision problem with a class of perishable fresh goods for the retailer is studied in one cycle, and the concept of price change point is introduced. The deterioration rate is represented by the three-parameter Weibull distribution, and the demand rate is the function of deterioration rate and the price together. The function of profit maximization is established. Solving the price function can be converted to a controllable Bolza problem which will get the optimal price representation. Through the example, the effect of price sensitivity and price turning point on the profit is studied. Further the sensitivity analysis and the price elasticity are analyzed. It shows that with the time elapsed, the sale price of fresh goods is more and more low; the more sensitive of the customers on price, the backer of the price turning point meanwhilethe price adjustment in the entire sales phase of the 1/2 to the 3/5 near to help increase profits.
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    The Survival Amount Model Based on Mexican Wavelet Nuclear-SVM in Earthquake Disaster
    HUANG Xing, YUN Ming, WANG Shao-yu
    2016, 24 (9):  140-146.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.017
    Abstract ( 1632 )   PDF (3715KB) ( 1044 )   Save
    The first work of distribution relief resource and improving the rescue efficiency is the survival amount prediction. The object of this paper is mainly to improve the prediction accuracy of the survival amount in earthquake disaster. First of all, the prediction indexes are put forward based on regional disaster theory and literatures. Secondly, the method of Support Vector Machine (SVM) model is introduced as the survival amount prediction in earthquake disaster to solve the index data of the small sample, high dimension and nonlinear characteristics. In this paper the model of the survival amount in earthquake disaster is put forward which replaced Mercer kernel function of inner product conditions to the Mexican mother Wavelet kernel function to effectively reduce the SVM classification of nonlinear error in high dimensional space and the limitations of conventional kernel function reducing the deviation. Finally, 53 groups of sample data are collected with the model test and these data came from the Chinese earthquake cases in 1989-2005. These sample data has the characteristics of small sample, nonlinear and high dimension that can be used to test the Mexican Wv-the SVM model. The numerical example shows Mexican Wv-the SVM model has high forecasting accuracy, fast training speed and running stability good characteristics to be compared with the standard SVM and BP neural network. In a word, the model is proved to be reliable and effective.
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    Coordination of Fresh Agricultural Supply Chain with Asymmetric Freshness Information
    YANG Ya, FAN Ti-jun, ZHANG Lei
    2016, 24 (9):  147-155.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.018
    Abstract ( 1798 )   PDF (1591KB) ( 1719 )   Save
    Serious damages and spoils of fresh agricultural supply chain result from the high complicated management by fresh agricultural products' short life, perishable and seasonal characteristics, which lead to coordination difficulties between upstream and downstream. Specially, the information asymmetry existing widely, such as producer conceals the private freshness information to retailer, will further aggravate this circulative loss. Thus, it is a need for us to research on the coordination of fresh agricultural supply chain with asymmetric freshness information.
    In this paper, a one-producer-one-retailer fresh agricultural supply chain in which the producer holds private freshness information is considered. The producer has to determine the wholesale price based on the production cost, the output and the retailer's possible order quantity. The retailer, on the other hand, has to determine order quantity and selling price, by taking into account the market demand and the freshness information came from producer. Models are developed to study the coordination mechanism of this supply chain with asymmetric freshness information. Moreover, a buyback contract is proposed to facilitate coordination between the two parties.
    It is considered that agricultural products' demand is random, sensitive to the freshness, which degrades accelerated over time. Some single cycle newsboy models are developed, and each party's optimal decisions are derived in both decentralized and centralized systems based on Stackelberg game.
    Two scenarios are analyzed in this model: freshness information symmetry and asymmetry. Firstly, the coordination model under symmetrical freshness information is constructed. Secondly, the centralized system and the decentralized system decision mechanism are analyzed under the scene that producer conceals the freshness information. Finally, the specific form of buyback contract is investigated to coordinate the supply chain.
    An important implication from our study is that even if the producer conceals the freshness of the agricultural products, it will not necessarily impair the overall profit of the supply chain under the wholesale-price contract. In addition, we can ensure information sharing and supply chain coordination through appropriate buyback contract.
    In the end, an illustrative case study dealing with acelery cabbage supply chain is discussed. Also, the impact of different freshness, conceal coefficient and profit distribution coefficient under asymmetric freshness information is illustrated.
    Our contribution lies in how to find appropriate contract to coordinate this fresh agricultural supply chain when asymmetric information exists in the supply chain in which producer conceals the private freshness information to retailer.
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    Research on a Recombination Evaluation Approach Based on the Previous Evaluation Results
    PENG Zhang-lin, ZHANG Qiang, WANG Su-feng, YANG Shan-lin
    2016, 24 (9):  156-164.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.019
    Abstract ( 1954 )   PDF (1240KB) ( 929 )   Save
    The concept of combination evaluation is an important content in the comprehensive evaluation theory and methodology. In this paper firstly defines the term of recombination evaluation is firstly defined and a recombination evaluation approach is proposed based on the previous evaluation results, which mainly deal with the nonuniformity and poor convergence of the first evaluation results derived from different combination evaluation methods, such as fuzzy borda method, copeland method and maximizing deviation decision method. Then, some key processes and operation steps to conduct this approach are detailedly given, which includes description of comprehensive evaluation problem, description of single evaluation method, description of combination evaluation, consistency analysis of different evaluation results, selection of recombination evaluation method based on minimum drift and convergence analysis of the results of recombination evaluation. Finally, from the numerical examples, it can be seen that the result error of the recombination evaluation is far less than result from any single first combination evaluation. Therefore, the conclusion that the recombination evaluation has better combination results and is more effective can be drawn. The recombination evaluation approach can effectively improve uniformity and convergence of of the first evaluation results derived from different combination evaluation methods, and decrease error of the first combination evaluation results. Ultimately, the reliability of the overall evaluation results can be strengthened. The contribution of this paper includes: 1) firstly proposes and defines the term of recombination evaluation; 2) presents a selection rule of recombination evaluation method based on minimum drift and convergence analysis of the results of recombination evaluation; 3) constructs a methodology architecture to carry out this recombination evaluation approach.
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    Advances in Reverse Logistics Network Design Research
    ZHANG Qun, WEI Li-rong
    2016, 24 (9):  165-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.09.020
    Abstract ( 1867 )   PDF (1275KB) ( 1609 )   Save
    Reverse Logistics networks is receiving much attention due to increasing pressure on environmental resources and growing requirements with government and public. There is abounding literature in the research area of reverse logistics network since Stock proposed the definition of reverse logistics in 1992. It is becoming a research hotspot in reverse logistics and operations management research.
    Compared to logistics network, the reverse logistics system is more complicated due to the uncertainty of recycling time, location, and quantity. The complexity and significance of the reverse logistics network have drawn the attention of researchers. The purpose of this paper is to review relevant studies in the reserve logistics network in the world to present the progress of the studies.
    In this paper, the reverse logistics network design is investigated. A comparative study of the network design issues, research methods, quantitative models, and algorithm is reviewed and made. Moreover, the research on uncertainty in reverse logistics network design is investigated.
    Regarding the network design issues, studies according to reprocessing methods including remanufacturing, reuse, repair, recycling, commercial returns, and disposal are discussed. In addition, the studies are divided into independent reverse logistics network design and closed or integrated forward/reverse logistics network design according to the relationship between forward and reverse logistics operation. After reviewing, it is represented that recycling network is the independent reverse network. Other kinds of networks are integrated forward/reverse network which is perusing economic of operation.
    In terms of research method, literature are reviewed from case studies, mathematical programming, and simulation method. Especially, as the primary characteristics of reverse logistics are the uncertainty, literature involved in risk environment are reuiewed to conclude the uncertainty factors and method to deal with it. The weakness of reverse logistics network design lies in the study under the uncertainty environment and it is the main research direction of the future research.
    At last, the deficiencies in recent studies were identified and a reference is suggested for future research which will help researchers understanding the present research in reverse logistics network design and provide a reference for their future studies.
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