Table of Content

20 April 2015, Volume 23 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Multi-scale Feature Extraction and Identification of Country Risk Dynamics:Cases of OPEC Countries SUN Xiao-lei, YAO Xiao-yang, YANG Yu-ying, WU Deng-sheng, LI Jian-ping 2015, 23 (4):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.001 Abstract ( 2090 )   PDF (3794KB) ( 1962 )   Save Country risk is one kind of special risk which comes from other countries when taking part in international activities, and it is of great importance to understand the law of its dynamic features. In this paper, considering the complexity and mutability of country risk, a novel research framework which concentrates on multi-scale feature extraction and identification is proposed based on the thought of "decomposition and integration". Firstly, country risk data is decomposed to several intrinsic mode functions. Then these intrinsic mode functions are reconstructed to three components of different scales, which represent high frequency scale, low frequency scale and trend respectively. Furthermore, variance contribution rate, correlation coefficient and the Shapley value are introduced to depict features of dynamic fluctuation, correlations between different scales and original data and the global importance of different scales respectively. At last, empirical experiments are given by selecting OPEC countries as cases. It can be found that modes correlation and variance contribution features can effectively classify the sample countries, and the classified results using the two different features have consistency.The global importance of high frequency scale, low frequency scale and the trend is 1:1:3, that is, global importance, which can be obtained by the Shapley value, is coherence and stable between all the countries. Above all, the framework can not only offer more dynamic information of the country risk, but also can be regarded as a new method for the comprehensive identification, monitory and prediction to the country risk. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research of Macro Stress Testing for Banking Credit Risk Based on the Industry Correlation PENG Jian-gang, YI Hao, PAN Ling-yao 2015, 23 (4):  11-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.002 Abstract ( 2128 )   PDF (1414KB) ( 1984 )   Save Following the principles and concepts of prudent macro management, a macro stress testing method for banking credit risk is put forward based on industry correlation. By considering industry correlation and the distribution characters of risk factor t, the multiple risk factor model is extended. The macro stress testing scenario with multiple risk factor model is considered, the values of industrial cycle index obtained under the stress scenario are transformed into conditional distributions of industrial risk factors under the corresponding scenario. Based on examination of macroeconomic cycle, the stress scenarios settings employ a variety of statistical methods to deal with historical macroeconomic data of the entire cycle in order to eliminate the procyclicality of credit risk measurement. The statistical methods include exponential smoothing, regression modeling approach and historical scenario analysis method. The process organically links the economic capital management with the prevention of systemic risk in banking industry. This macro stress testing method can reflect default correlations between credit assets in different industries, identify the negative impact on credit assets of other industries caused by some certain industry downturn, which reflects the source and mechanism of systemic risk. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Dependency Structure of Financial Markets Based on the Stylized Facts and Mixed Copula Function LIN Yu, CHEN Wang, WANG Yi-ming, HUANG Xun 2015, 23 (4):  20-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.003 Abstract ( 2106 )   PDF (1981KB) ( 1654 )   Save The ARFIMA-FIAPARCH-skst model is applied to establish return-volatility model to CSI300 and HIS. Then the parameter estimated is combined to revise model to confine the final model and get rid of the effect of dependence relation from stylized facts in financial market. And then the mixed copula model made of Clayton, Frank and Gumbel is applied to establish a model of dependence structure. The result of the research indicates that evident of leverage effects found by the existing research hasn't been observed by local market and HongKong market. Moreover, the mixed copula model made of Clayton, Frank and Gumbel can describe the dependence structure between two markets accurately and the dependence relation of lower tail of two markets is stronger than the dependence relation of upper tail. Besides, the time varying mixed-copula also indicates that there is an obvious asymmetric dependence relationship. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Empirical Research on Spillover Effect between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market by Wavelet Multi-resolution Analysis and Multivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) Model XIONG Zheng-de, WEN Hui, XIONG Yi-peng 2015, 23 (4):  30-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.004 Abstract ( 2226 )   PDF (915KB) ( 2467 )   Save The reform of the exchange rate mechanism and the split-share structure strengthen the integration of China's foreign exchange market and the stock market. In the near term, the continuous evolution of the pressure of RMB appreciation and the outbreak of several major economic crisis further enhance the correlation between the two markets. The volatility spillover effect between the domestic foreign exchange market and stock market is investigated using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and Multivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model. Empirical results not only show that significant volatility spillover effects between the two markets exist, and the two markets exist different volatility spillover effects with different trading cycle, that is, in the short-term the stock market pass the one-way effect to the foreign exchange market. With the cycle becomes longer it develops to be bidirectional spillover effects, among which the foreign exchange market to the stock market volatility spillover effects are more intense. In the long-term only minor spillover effects are passed to foreign exchange market from the stock market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Credit Risk Assessment Model Based on Automatic Clustering Using an Differential Evolution Algorithm ZHANG Da-bin, ZHOU Zhi-gang, XU Zhi, LI Yan-hui 2015, 23 (4):  39-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.005 Abstract ( 2043 )   PDF (1215KB) ( 1892 )   Save With the increasing complexity of risk assessment, multi-dimensional, multi-timing and other irregular sample data increases the difficulty of the assessment. In this paper, the establishment of credit risk evaluation of differential evolution automatic clustering model is applyed to our assessment of the credit risk of listed companies. The prior knowledge of classified data is not required in this model, on the contrary, swarm intelligence is used to find the optimal partition. By data simulation and empirical comparative study of credit risk assessment and genetic algorithms, decision tree, BP neural network model, the results show that the model can be very accurately to find the corresponding data partition, which greatly improving the accuracy of the credit assessment, reducing the cost of risk, making a high value of credit risk management and control. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Short, Medium and Long Term Effects of Green Credit Policy in China Based on a Financial CGE Model LIU Jing-yu, XIA Yan, LIN Shih-mo, WU Jie, FAN Ying 2015, 23 (4):  46-52.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.006 Abstract ( 2104 )   PDF (2120KB) ( 2981 )   Save Market-based policies are implemented to achieve environmental targets in China's 12th five-year plan. Green credit policy is one of the most important financial policies. In this paper, it is assumed that commercial banks request higher interest rates from the high-emission industries and try to explore mechanism and path of green credit policy with the model, as well as policy effects on industrial and macro economy. A Chinese financial CGE model is applied and data from listing corporation annual reports, real SAM of China, flow of fund tables and Yearbook of Finance of China in 2006 and 2007 are used. It is found that green credit policy is effective in reducing investment of the high-emission industries. And in the short or medium term, it has negative impacts on the production activities of paper and chemical industries but it is not effective on non-metal ores or steel and metals industries. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comparative Study on Risk Propensity between Listed State-owned Enterprises and Private Enterprises in China SONG Jian, LIANG Liang 2015, 23 (4):  53-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.007 Abstract ( 2142 )   PDF (867KB) ( 1841 )   Save This paper aimed to insight into the internal mechanism of institutional factor's effect on enterprise risk behavior. Following Bowman's paradox, a comprehensive research and comparison on the risk propensity between state-own enterprises and private enterprises in China are developed in this article. By empirical comparison on the sample derived from listed companies during three different periods, the following results are indicated:(1) Whether at the overall level or at the industry level, the state-owned enterprises are more inclined to take risks than private enterprises before the outbreak of financial crisis in 2008, and the gap of risk propensity between the two has been reducing constantly; (2) In the wake of financial crisis, it is found that the contrast results of risk propensity between state-owned and private enterprises are different from the previous results at different target level cases; (3) In the cases above the target level, the risk behaviors of both state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are not consistent with the expectation of prospect theory. These indicate that institutional factor largely determines the enterprise risk behavior in China. In addition, the risk propensity of enterprises is partly affected by their own development level and economic environment. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a mechanism of enterprise risk behavior management in China, which can effectively advance multi-lateral cooperation among government, enterprise and market, and achieve optimization of organizing function, based on the reform and development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Integrated Measurement about Carbon Finance Market Risk of Commercial Banks Based on Copula Model ZHANG Chen, YANG Yu, ZHANG Tao 2015, 23 (4):  61-69.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.008 Abstract ( 2785 )   PDF (2853KB) ( 1960 )   Save Currently the low-carbon economy has become one of the strategic transformations of economic development measures. Carbon financial business has become an important innovation field in the financial sector that financial institutions boost the development of low-carbon economy. While the risk control is always the key factor affecting the success of financial innovation. As a developing country, China takes part in the international carbon financial transactions relying on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Under the CDM, indirect finance dominates carbon financial market where commercial banks play the important intermediary role. With the emerging of low-carbon economy in China, many financial institutions, especially the commercial banks, explore a lot of carbon financial business such as credit support business as CERs usufruct pledge loan, factoring financing, CDM equipment leasing, and other services as financial advisers, financial products of carbon credits, carbon accounts hosting business. Participating in the carbon finance business, banks are facing many risks as international carbon price fluctuations, carbon trading settlement currency exchange rate fluctuations and so on. And between the multi-source risk factors, a symbiotic and complexity of correlation is exist. In this paper, the carbon financial market risk of commercial banks is investigated in this paper, and ICE CERs future price and the EURO against CNY exchange rate as two risk factors financial time series sample data, which are chosen in the websites of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) from 2009 to 2012 are selected. First, according to financial time series' feature, ARMA-GARCH models are used to portray the characterization of carbon price risk and exchange rate risk, the treatment methods for nonlinear relationship between the risk factors on Copula function are studied, and then the integrated VaR of carbon market risk through building Copula-ARMA-GARCH model and Monte Carlo simulation is calculated. Our empirical study shows that:(1) Financial time series of carbon price and exchange rate are both volatility clustering and heteroscedasticity. (2) Compared with risk factors' VaR, carbon price risk is higher than exchange rate risk in the carbon transactions. (3) If the correlation of carbon market risk factors is ignored, risk will be overestimated. (4) Supervision on exchange rate can reduce carbon market risk in a certain extent.This article contributes to find out amulti-source risks integration measurement technique to accord with the characteristic of carbon financial assets price volatility. The carbon financial risk factors have various sources and symbiotic, therefore, portraying the characteristics of risk factors respectively then the integration provides a theoretical framework for the multi-source risk measurement research; it provides theoretical basis for commercial banks to control the carbon market risks effectively, and promote carbon finance innovation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Price and Warranty Length in the Static Demand Market Considering Repurchasing Process WANG Xuan, LIU Li-wen 2015, 23 (4):  70-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.009 Abstract ( 1786 )   PDF (892KB) ( 1534 )   Save In this paper, a decision model is developed to determine the optimal price and warranty length for a static demand market. The demand function of the model characterizes both the repurchasing process and the initial purchase process. The cost functions consider both the learning effect and free repair warranty policy. And it is assumed that the time between two failures follows Weibull distribution. Two scenarios are provided, which are based on whether the repurchasing process is affected by price. The maximum principle method is used to obtain optimal solutions. The optimal policies for a special case are further investigated and Lingo11 is used to do some numerical tests. In this paper, it is found that price and warranty have to be considered in the same time, the best policy is to set high price and long warranty in the beginning and reduce them along the product life circle. Considering the repurchasing process, manufacture can get more profit and consumer can have better warranty. Finally, the management implication get from the model solutions is discussed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Design Model to Improve the Revenue of Third-party Warehouses with Service Constraints XU Hao-xuan, GONG Ye-ming, YUAN Zhe, ZHANG Jin-long 2015, 23 (4):  78-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.010 Abstract ( 1990 )   PDF (940KB) ( 1789 )   Save As service providers, third-party warehouses mainly focus on increasing the expected revenue, but at the same time have to meet certain service standards. In a high demand environment, a stochastic design model based on queuing theory and taken into account of service constraint is preserted. The objective of the model is to maximize the expected long-run revenue. The problem is solved by dynamic programming and numerical experiments are conducted by using real data in a third-party warehouse. Finally, the results show that the new design in our method can improve the expected revenue of public storage warehouses with high demand and service constraints rate. Based on the result, the feasible and effective ranges of the service factor for decision-makers are further identified. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Decision Considering Strategic Customer Behavior under Demand Learning SHEN Cheng-lin, ZHANG Xin-xin, HOU Wen-hua 2015, 23 (4):  86-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.011 Abstract ( 2146 )   PDF (1430KB) ( 2184 )   Save Strategic customer behavior is verified to bring about great impacts on firms' profits. The value of demand learning on the strategic customer behavior is discussed by formulating a game model of a two-period decentralized supply chain consisting of one manufacturer, one retailer and a group of customers, in which customers are divided into two types:myopic customer and strategic customer. The impacts of demand learning on pricing and order policies as well as the whole performance of the supply chain are analyzed by mathematical models and numerical studies. The main results are as follows:Firstly, the retailer always prefers to gain demand update information no matter what types of customers are. In addition, the manufacturer does not prefer to gain demand update information when selling to myopic customers while prefers to gain demand update information when selling to strategic customers. Finally, demand learning helps to improve both the retailer's profit and the supply chain's profit, especially, when customers are strategic, supply chain's profit is enhanced more greatly by demand learning. In summary, a conclusion can be drawed that demand learning can reduce negative impacts from the strategic customer behavior and improve firms' performance effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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On the Value of Availability Guarantees based on Strategic Consumer Purchasing and Returning Behaviors JIANG Hong 2015, 23 (4):  96-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.012 Abstract ( 1699 )   PDF (1502KB) ( 1927 )   Save Nowadays the out-of-stock phenomenon is very popular, which reduces the utility of the customers. For this problem, the sellers always provide the availability guarantees services. Because it is proved that consumer behaviors have the important influence on the seller's optimal decisions, the value of two availability guarantees including inventory commitment and out-of-stock compensation is studied based on consumer strategic purchasing and returning behaviors. It is assumed that a seller sold the single produce in two sale periods (full price and salvage price). Three models of no any guarantees, inventory commitment and out-of-stock compensation are established. By analyzing these models, it is found that out-of-stock have no effect on the optimal refund, and that consumer strategic purchasing behavior destroys the positive function of inventory commitment which can be offset using unconstrained returning policy, and that the value of truthful commitment is better than the false one. When the utility of compensate is over the cost (called an efficient compensation), the out-of-stock compensation is better than the truthful inventory commitment. At last, using the software Matlab, an analysis of an example was applied and tested our models correctness. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Decision of Dual Source Supply Chain Combining Contract Ordering and Spot Market XU Qi, LIU Zheng, TANG Bing-yong 2015, 23 (4):  105-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.013 Abstract ( 2028 )   PDF (2998KB) ( 1581 )   Save To better match the demand with supply and improve enterprise's profit as well as service level, optimal decisions based on combination of contract order and spot market under double channel supply chain situations are discussed. Firstly, pure wholesale contract for the optimal order quantity is analyzed. Based on that, by consideration of one-way and two-way trading patterns, buyback contract and quantity flexibility contract are introduced into one-way spot market and three order models are designed, which are order model combining buyback contract with replenishment of the spot market, order model combing quantity flexibility contract with spot market selling pattern and order model combining wholesale price contract with two-way trading patterns of spot market. As for these models, some parameters on affects of supply chain performance are analyzed, such as buyback price, cost of out of stock, replenishment costs, spot price and its volatility and risk preference for vendors. Finally, through the numerical simulation, impact of different spot markets on vendor revenue is analyzed. It is proved that combination of contract order and two-way spot market enables to take advantage of real-time trading of spot market and improve the supply chain profit. Combination of contract order and one-way spot market although enables to improve supply service level and reduce inventory risk. However, buyback price and replenishment price need to be considered, causing certain amount of risk. Combination of one-way or two-way spot market and contract order can make more revenue than just contract order. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Joint Optimization for Lead-time Supply-demand Inventory in Supply Chain LI Qun-xia, MA Feng-cai, ZHANG Qun 2015, 23 (4):  117-122.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.014 Abstract ( 2131 )   PDF (1934KB) ( 2049 )   Save In the traditional manufacture-customer supply-demand joint model, it is assumed that the lead time belongs to the negative exponential distribution in the time interval [0, ∞) and it only related to the customer. But in the real condition, the manufacturer generally plays an more important role than the customer in the supply chain, especially in the vendor-centralized supply chain. The manufacturer controls the operation of the supply chain and thus easily decides the behavior of the lead time. In this paper, it is assumed that the lead time belongs to the uniform distribution and the time interval of the lead time is decided by both the manufacturer and the customer in the supply chain. The lead time based joint inventory optimization model in the supply chain environment is established by combining their independent inventory model together and optimizing the model in the joint environment. The presented optimization method proves that the objective function has the minimum value at optimum order quantity and optimum order times in the lead time condition. The simulation shows that the proposed joint optimization method is always better than the independent optimization method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control with Anchoring Effect SONG Hong-fang, RAN Lun, CHU Hong-rui, ZHANG Wen-si 2015, 23 (4):  123-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.015 Abstract ( 2006 )   PDF (1174KB) ( 2182 )   Save The strategy is designed for dynamic pricing and inventory control of a two-echelon supply chain, which has a monopoly retailer who sell products to customers with anchoring effect. With anchoring effect of the consumer decision-making model, reference price of customers is relation to demand and dynamic price. The model of dynamic pricing and inventory control is built, and then the model with discount factor is considered. In addition, the inventory backlog in the supply chain is investigated. The numerical result shows that consumers determine their best time to purchase according to the change of market price, and the retailer's expected revenne will be increased with the extension of sale hours. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Efficiency Evaluation Models of Multi-stage System with Undesirable Inputs and Outputs LIU De-bin, MA Chao-qun, ZHOU Zhong-bao, LIU Wen-bin 2015, 23 (4):  129-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.016 Abstract ( 2114 )   PDF (1370KB) ( 2027 )   Save The existing multi-stage DEA models are generally assumed that all inputs and outputs are desirable, few studies on the undesirable inputs and outputs and no study on undesirable initial inputs and intermediate outputs. Therefore firstly the method of defining the types of inputs and outputs is proposed, and it is applied to the two-stage system which includes undesirable inputs and undesirable outputs. And for the conditions of consistent and inconsistent of the same inputs or outputs' types especially intermediate outputs' types in two-stage production system with undesirable indicators, corresponding production possibility sets and two-stage DEA models are established. Finally, the proposed methods and models are used to evaluate the efficiency of China's listed banks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Principal-Agent Problem under the Condition of Existing Primary and Secondary Principals:Theoretical Model and Experiment Research CHEN Qi-an, LIU Ai-ping, LI Hong-qiang 2015, 23 (4):  139-147.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.017 Abstract ( 1929 )   PDF (900KB) ( 2004 )   Save In the real world, an agent usually has a primary principal and a secondary principal at the same time, and there exist different principal-agent relationships between the primary principal, the secondary principal and the agent respectively. Drawing on the agent's utility function and effort cost function provided by Siqueira, Sandler and Cauley(2009), a principal-agent model is set under the condition of existing primary and secondary principals on the basis of traditional principal-agent theories and different roles of primary and secondary principals in the principal-agent relationship, and gets the optimal incentive compensation paid to the agent by the primary principal and the agent's optimal effort level for the primary principal is otiained, and the comparative analysis is carried on the principal-agent relationships under the condition of existing primary and secondary principals and that under the condition of a single principal based on the above-mentioned model. Then, taking MBA students, EMBA students, senior managers training students, MPAcc students, doctoral candidates, master degree candidates and undergraduates of our university as experimental subjects, experimental data is collected by interviews and questionnaire to make the experimental test of the model results. The main theoretical and experimental research results are as follows. Firstly, when the agent's effort for the secondary principal has externalities to the primary principal, the incentive compensation paid to the agent by the primary principal and the agent's optimal effort level for the primary principal will be higher than that under a single principal respectively. Secondly, when the agent's effort for the secondary principal has positive (or negative) externalities to the primary principal, the primary principal will gain more (or less) expected earning than that under a single principal. Thirdly, when the agent's effort for the secondary principal does not exist externalities to the primary principal, the incentive compensation paid to the agent by the primary principal, the primary principal's expected earning and the agent's optimal effort level for the primary principal will be same as that under a single principal respectively. Fourthly, the agent's total expected earning under the condition of existing primary and secondary principals will be higher than that under a single principal. The traditional principal-agent theory is expanded and deepened based on different roles of primary and secondary principals in the principal-agent relationship, and methodology is provided for solving the generally existing principal-agent problems between principals playing different roles and agents, and theoretical guidance for building the reasonable organizational system and governance mechanism, straightening out the internal principal-agent relationship between superiors and subordinates, improving the multiple principal-agent mechanism, and reducing the agent's moral hazard and the loss of primary principal. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Investment Strategy Based on Order Flow and Its Empirical Study LI Cheng-gang, LUO Cong, HU Jian-bo 2015, 23 (4):  148-156.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.018 Abstract ( 2029 )   PDF (1907KB) ( 1574 )   Save Order flow indicator is introduced in this paper to capture the flow of funds, and order impact coefficient is put forward to characterize the change rate of funds inflow. From the perspective of financial market microstructure, a dynamic investment strategy is constructed based on order flow. From investors' expected utility maximization, by constructing a Lagrange function, the dynamic investment strategy is derived the optimal investment weight. An empirical study with daily data of index stocks of Shenzhen stock exchange composite index from June 1st, 2009 to July 31st, 2009 is carried out. The empirical results indicate that the dynamic investment strategy based on order flow can obtain better investment return. The test results of t test based on paired data show that, the dynamic investment strategy based on order flow can get significant excess returns. New direction for constructing investment strategy from the perspective of financial market microstructure is provided in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Application and Optimization for Network Flow Programming in Large-scale Agricultural Production Plan with Time Flexibility Based on Spatial-Temporal Restriction LI Hui, HUANG Nan-jing, YE Yi-jun 2015, 23 (4):  157-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.019 Abstract ( 1957 )   PDF (1505KB) ( 1745 )   Save The farmland transfer generates various rural economic entities, such as farmers' professional cooperatives, agricultural enterprises and so on, and they take possession of large-scale farmland. In order to achieve large-scale production and intensive management of the agricultural products, it is important to make production plan on the base of the land resources, agricultural information, and production technology. In this context, the network model, the linear model and nonlinear model are successively built for the agricultural production plan. Firstly, based on the spatial-temporal and time flexible characteristics of the agricultural production, the network model of agricultural production plan is built. Secondly, through analyzing the network flow balance problems, the constraint conditions are derived, and combining with the quantitative control of agricultural products, the network model is optimized to get the linear model. Thirdly, considering the influence factors of agricultural productivity, the linear model is extended by establishing nonlinear constraints and objective function. Finally, the numerical example is provided to illustrate the process about making the large-scale agricultural production plan. Results of the numerical example show that the balance between supply and demand of market of agricultural products will be broken if the farmland is fully engaged for the agricultural production, which will cause harvest paradox, however. If the model presented in this paper is applied to formulate scientific and reasonable production plan by the various rural economic entities, although part of the farmland is unused, it will be also help to restore soil fertility and regenerate a variety of organic matter, and to improve good conditions and environment for subsequent production of agriculture products, which is beneficial to improve the quality and output of agricultural products, and increase economic benefit. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Rural Credit Agency Client Manager Comprehensive Evaluation System Design Based on Analytic Network Process YU Shun-kun, ZHANG Ou 2015, 23 (4):  167-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.020 Abstract ( 1692 )   PDF (1700KB) ( 1554 )   Save The management level of rural credit agency is behind the business development speed. This situation has become the bottleneck to the rural credit agency's further development. Seven banks in Zhejiang rural credit agency system are taken as the research samples, the questionnaire survey and other methods are used to build comprehensive evaluation indexes according with the characteristics of the rural credit agency system, and network analytic hierarchy process (ANP) is introduced to solve the problem that indexes are mutual influence and weights are difficult to divide and measure. At the same time, the inquiry and the grounded theory are to prove that the model is scientific and reasonable. Finally, an example is proposed to test evaluation model is applicable. A comprehensive theoretical framework and practical technical tool are provided in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics