The economic globalization and the complexity of the oil demand-supply system complicate the relationship between oil consumption and its factors. In this paper the overall factor, structural factors and price factor which affect the oil consumption are obtained based on literature reviews and theoretical analysis. And then, the path analysis using the statistical data from 1995 to 2015 is applied to calculate the direct impact, indirect impact and total impact of the various factors on oil consumption, the results indicate that economic growth, industrialization and international crude oil prices are the main affect factors of oil consumption. And Johansen Co-integration test suggests that there is a long-term and stable relationship between these four variables. Next, the smooth transition regression (STR) method is employed to further examine the effect of factors on oil consumption and the following conclusion are drawn. Firstly, there is a nonlinear relationship between industrialization and oil consumption. Its obvious dynamic characteristics with regime conversion can be described by LSTR2 model perfectly. Secondly, when the first lagged industrialization dLnindt-1 is in the regime of below -0.0045 or in the high regime of above 0.0228, the first lagged industrialization have a negative impact on the oil consumption, which the nonlinear feature is most obvious. While the first lagged industrialization is in the mid-regime, the effect of industrialization on oil consumption is gradually shifted from the negative and passive influence to the stably linear and positive influence. The results also suggest that this nonlinear relationship makes economic growth and international oil price have a complex impact on oil consumption in economic-energy systems. This provides reference for our country to make economic policies adapting to energy conservation and energy structure optimization in different industrial period in China.
CHAI Jian, LIANG Ting, ZHOU You-hong, WANG Shou-yang, KIN Keung-lAI
. Analysis of Oil Consumption under Different Regional Industrialization-An Empirical Study Based on Path-STR Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017
, 25(11)
: 47
-57
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.005
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