The similarity problem of emergency events is a difficult problem to be solved when the occurred emergency events in case-based reasoning technology are used for the auxiliary decision making.Thus in the horizontal aspect, the scenario chain is constructed in the order of time sequence based on the key decision points scenario. And in the vertical aspect, the constitutive model of "event-scenario-emergency tasks-emergency action" is Put forward. Then based on the scenario chain similarity algorithm the problem of finding similar emergencies and coping strategies is solved. The similarity of the scenario chain includes the similarity of the whole scenario chain and scenario node. Considering that the emergency level effects the emergency response, the algorithm of the scenario chain similarity is designed, firstly from the similarity of the scenario chain structure in the two similar emergencies including the similarity of the emergency level and the number of nodes, then the similarity between semantic concepts including the scenario name set overall similarity and the attribute similarity of scenario node, and finally the two emergency scenario chains overall similarity with this formula:Sij=[ω1,ω2,ω3]·[Sijlevel,SijNum,SijName]T.When it comes to the similarity of disposal task and emergency action, the similarity of disposal tasks overall set under the specific situation is calculated, and then similarity of emergency actions which are selected from the highest similarity of the two disposal tasks is calculated, and finally set the union set of the highest similarity of emergency actions is set, and the whole through the formula:Sab=[ω1,ω2,ω3]·[SabTask,Sabtask,SabAction]T is gotten. This study enriches and develops the theory of "scenario-response", and provides technical inputs for the emergency decision making method.
ZHANG Ming-hong, SHE Lian, GENG Bo
. Research on the Similarity of the Structured Emergency Events Based on Scenario[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017
, 25(1)
: 151
-159
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.016
[1] Kahn H, Wiener A. The year 2000[M].New York:MacMillan Press, 1967.
[2] Gershuny J.The choice of scenarios[J].Futures,1976,(8):496-508.
[3] Porter M E.Competitive advantage[M].New York:Free Press,1982.
[4] Schnaars S P.How to develop and use scenarios[J].Long Range Planning,1987,20(1):105-114.
[5] Gronberg C. Accident scenarios and their role in risk assessment[J].Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,15(S1).
[6] Alspaugh T A.Scenario networks and formalization for scenario management[D]. Raleigh,NC:North Carolina State University, 2002.
[7] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I.Scenario networks:A case study of the enhanced messaging system[J]//Proceedings of the Seventh International Workshop on Requirements Engineering:Foundation for Software Quality (REFSQ), 2001,:113-124.
[8] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I,Barnes T,et al.An integrated scenario management strategy[C]//Proceedings of the Fourth IEEE International Symposium on Requirements Engineering (RE'99), June 7-11,1999:142-149.
[9] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I, Davis L J.An empirical study of scenario similarity measure[R].Technical Report Institute for Sofeware Researeh,2003.
[10] Paltrinieri N, Wilday J,Wardman M, et al.Surface installations intended for carbon capture and sequestration:A typical accident scenarios and their identification[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2014,92(1):93-107.
[11] Paltrinieri N,Dechy N,Salzano E,et al.Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios[J].Journal of Risk Research,2013,16(3-4):337-354.
[12] Paltrinieri N,Øien K, Cozzani V. Assessment and comparison of two early warning indicator methods in the perspective of prevention of atypical accident scenarios[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2012,108(8):21-31.
[13] 刘铁民.重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究[J].中国应急管理,2012,(04):18-23.
[14] 王颜新.非常规突发事件情境重构模型研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2011.
[15] 姜卉,侯建盛.基于情景重建的非常规突发事件应急处置方案的快速生成方法研究[J].中国应急管理,2012,(01):14-20.
[16] 陈祖琴,苏新宁.基于情景划分的突发事件应急响应策略库构建方法[J].图书情报工作,2012,58(19):105-110.
[17] 于峰,李向阳,孙钦莹.突发事件情景应对案例库族谱设计[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2596-2605.
[18] 张玲,陈涛,黄钧. 基于最小最大后悔值的应急救灾网络构建鲁棒优化模型与算法[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(7):131-139.
[19] 杨继君,佘廉.面向多灾点需求的应急资源调度博弈模型及优化[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(08):154-163.
[20] 刘浪,史文强,冯良清.多因素扰动情景下应急数量弹性契约的供应链协调[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(07):163-176.
[21] 刘长石,彭怡,寇纲.震后应急物资配送的模糊定位-路径问题研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(05):111-118.
[22] 陈晨,俞政,张新梅.考虑应急活动的非常规突发事件情景刻画研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(10):163-169.
[23] 刘樑,李仕明.非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2013,15(06):20-24.
[24] 王旭坪,杨相英,樊双姣,等.非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2013,(01):22-27.
[25] 张承伟,李建伟,陈雪龙.基于知识元的突发事件情景建模[J].情报杂志,2012,(07):11-15.
[26] 仲雁秋,郭艳敏,王宁等.基于知识元的非常规突发事件情景模型研究[J].情报科学,2012, 30(01):115-120.
[27] 李藐,陈建国,陈涛,等.突发事件的事件链模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,(08):1173-1177.
[28] 罗鹏志,陈曦.面向事件链的突发事件建模与检索技术[J].华中科技大学学报,2015,43(10):441-445.
[29] 崔玉泉, 张宪.非对称信息下供应链应急管理和信息价值研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(04):83-93.
[30] 曾波, 孟伟, 刘思峰,等.面向灾害应急物资需求的灰色异构数据预测建模方法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(08):84-91.
