Telecommunications license has uncertainties and high investment and financing risks. The value of its flexible management is also hard to measure. The traditional appraisal and decision-making methods are obviously defective, often leading to undervaluation and thus missing out on opportunities on the part of decision makers. Based on the option theory, the analysis framework is constructed to assess the assets, as the telecommunication license. The 4G program of China Mobile Limited (stock code:0941) is taken as a case. Through the comparative analysis, the results show that the traditional method has obvious value leakage, and the leakage rate is as high as 50.3%. But real option method can very good to make up for the defect, and more completely and objectively reflects the true value of such assets. It can provide effective support for the asset class of investment decision-making.
WANG Xue-rong, LI Qing-hui
. The Value Analysis of Telecommunications License Based on Real Option[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016
, 24(12)
: 47
-53
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.12.006
[1] Bowe M, Lee D L. Project evaluation in the presence of multiple embedded real options: evidence from the Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project[J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 2004, 15(1): 71-98.
[2] Fotios P. Harmantzis C, Tanguturi V P. Delay in the expansion from 2.5G to 3G wireless networks: A real options approach[C]. Technology Management,2004,1(201).
[3] 谷晓燕. 基于实物期权的研发项目动态投资决策模型[J]. 中国管理科学,2015,23(7):94-102.
[4] 陈坚,基于扇形偏好的期权定价方法[J]. 管理科学学报,2014.17(3):28-36.
[5] 余湄,金晓燕,皮道弈. 基于美式看跌期权的开放式基金管理费率的研究[J].中国管理科学,2012.11(S1):445-450
[6] Angelou G N, Economides A A. A multi-criteria game theory and real-options model for irreversible ICT investment decisions[J]. Telecommunications Policy, 2009, 33(10-11): 686-705.
[7] Premchaiswadi W, Pattanavichai S. Real options valuation of uncertain investments decision-making between 4G LTE and 4G WiMAX mobile network in telecommunications industry[J]. Advances in information Sciences and Service Sciences, 2013, 5(11): 108-116.
[8] 谭跃,何佳. 实物期权与高科技战略投资——中国3G牌照的价值分析[J].经济研究,2001,(4):58-66.
[9] 刘燕霄. 复合实物期权定价分析方法应用——以澳门3G项目为例[J]. 西部经济管理论坛,2014,25(2):37-46.
[10] 付雯潇,傅洪涛. 电信牌照的无形资产内涵及价值测度研究[J]. 湖北工业大学学报,2012,27(3):33-38.
[11] Verdu A J, Tamayo I, Ruiz-Moreno A. The moderating effect of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between real options and technological innovation in high-tech firms[J] Technovation, 2012, 32(9-10): 579-590.
[12] Yarygin A, Rogova E. Valuing innovative 4G (LTE) technology with real options approach[C]//Proceedings of the XXIV ISPIM Conference-Innovating in Global Markets: Challenges for Sustainable Growth Conference, Helsinki,Finland, June 16-19, 2013.
