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Articles

Research Project Evaluation and Selection in the NSFC: An Approach Based on the Evidential Reasoning Rule with Reliability

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  • 1. School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
    2. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
    3. School of Management, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China;
    4. Manchester Business School, the University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UK

Received date: 2015-01-28

  Revised date: 2015-09-02

  Online published: 2016-12-27

Abstract

Research project evaluation and selection is one of the core research management activities in the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Through taking into consideration evaluation criteria and selection procedure, a systematic method of implementing the evidential reasoning rule is presented to aggregate evaluation information on multiple criteria by multiple experts. The proposed method has the following strengths:1) combine evaluation information with different weights and reliabilities effectively, 2) employ a confusion matrix for generating experts' evaluation reliabilities, as experts may have different knowledge background and expertise, and 3) use a belief distribution to represent the overall performance profile of research projects in a more informative way. The belief distribution can be further transformed as utilities which are used to support the decision making of project selection. A case study on the project evaluation and selection of the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Cite this article

ZHU Wei-dong, LIU Fang, WANG Dong-peng, Jian-Bo Yang . Research Project Evaluation and Selection in the NSFC: An Approach Based on the Evidential Reasoning Rule with Reliability[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016 , 24(10) : 141 -148 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.016

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