Taking the indebted ST listed companies and twice as many the non-ST of manufacturing industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share from 2011 to 2012 as sample, 30 financial indicators that can reflect the business profitability, profitability of shareholders, cash flow capacity, operational capacity, development capacity and debt solvency and other 8 qualitative indicators including ownership structure, management structure and location of the companies are selected. Considered the sample of 2011 as a training set while the 2012 as testing set, a traditional warning model and double classification model in which TOPSIS method are introduced on the basis of the principal component analysis are built. The results show that the introduction of TOPSIS in risk early-warning model can increase the accuracy of early-warning significantly. It can improve the accuracy of early warning system 18.5% for ST companies and 11.1% for samples in general. This suggests that the method of double classification can be applied to build an effective risk early-warning model.
ZHU Wei-dong, WU Peng
. Canthe Introduction of TOPSIS in Risk Early-warning Model Improve theAccuracy of Early-warning?-A Case Study from Listed Companies of Manufacturing Industry[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015
, 23(11)
: 96
-104
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.11.012
[1] Altman E I. Financial rations, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Finance,1968,23(4)::589-609.
[2] Altman E I,Haldeman R G,Narayanan P. Zeta analysis:A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1977,(7):29-54.
[3] Martin D. Early warnings of bank failure:A logit regression approach[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1977,1(3):249-276.
[4] Ohlson J A. Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1980,18(1):109-131.
[5] 陈晓,陈治鸿.中国上市公司的财务困境预测[J].中国会计与财务研究,2000,2(3):55-92.
[6] 徐光华,吴明鸣.基于EVA的行业财务预警模型研究-以沪市IT上市公司为例[J].经济管理, 2006,(24):63-68.
[7] 吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预警模型研究[J].经济研究, 2001,(6):21-26.
[8] 张爱民,祝春山,许丹健.上市公司财务失败的主成分预测模型及其实证研究[J].金融研究, 2001,(3):10-25.
[9] 刘鑫,李竹薇.我国上市公司信用风险管理模型的构建与实证研究[J].财经问题研究,2009,(12):82-86.
[10] 孔宁宁,魏韶巍.基于主成分分析和Logit回归方法的财务预警模型比较[J].经济问题,2010,(6):112-116.
[11] Hwang C L, Yoon K. Multiple attribute decision making[M]. Berlin:Springer, 1981.
[12] 姜秀华,孙铮.治理弱化与财务危机:一个预测模型[J].南开管理评论, 2001, (5):19-25.
[13] Lee T S, Yeh Y H. Corporate governance and financial distress:evidence from Taiwan[J]. Corporate Governance:An International Review, 2004, (3):378-388.
[14] Elloumi F, Gueyie J P. Financial distress and corporate governance:An empirical analysis[J]. Corporate governance, 2001, (1):15-23.
[15] Judge W Q, Zeithaml C P. Institutional and strategic choice perspectives on board involvement in the strategic decision process[J]. Academy of management journal, 1992, (4):766-794.
[16] 沈艺峰,张俊生. ST公司董事会治理失败若干成因分析[J].证券市场导报,2002,(3):21-25.
[17] Wang Zhen, Liu Li, Chen Chao. Corporate governance, ownership and financial distress of publicly listed companies in China[J]. Petroleum Science, 2004, 1(1):90-96.
[18] 赵冠华.企业财务困境分析与预测方法研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
[19] 李志辉,李萌.我国商业银行信用风险识别模型及其实证研究[J].经济科学,2005,(5):61-71.
[20] 陈艳,张海君.上市公司财务预警模型的研究[J].财经问题研究,2007,(6):92-97.
[21] 张新红,王瑞晓.我国上市公司信用风险预警研究[J].宏观经济研究,2011,(1):50-54.
[22] Ding Shaofeng, Hou Yingchao, Hou Peipei. Logistic financial crisis early-warning model subjoining nonfinancial indexes for listed companies[M]//Qi ershi,Shen Jiang,Dou Runliang. The 19th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. Berlin Heidelberg:Springer, 2013:685-696.
