主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
Articles

Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis

Expand
  • 1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China;
    2. College of Business Administration, Hunan University Changsha 410082, China

Received date: 2013-11-13

  Revised date: 2014-12-24

  Online published: 2015-09-28

Abstract

The nonlinear dynamic relationship between crude oil price and stock markets for the selected eight Asia-Pacific economies from 1997/07/01 to 2013/07/01 is investigated. In the traditional threshold regime switching models framework, the optimization is complicated in the procedure of parameter estimation and the identification of unknown nuisance parameters is more difficult. Therefore, a Bayesian threshold regime switching cointegration approach is implemented instead in this study. Based on Bayesian MCMC algorithm, It is found that there is threshold regime switching cointegrating relationship between crude oil and Korea stock market, and between crude oil and Malaysia stock market. The results suggest that there exist asymmetric adjustments in oil-Korea stock market nexus and oil-Malaysia stock market nexus. On the other hand, there are no asymmetric adjustments between oil and Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, Indonesia and Singapore stock markets. The regime switching cointegration analysis could provide a different view to the relationship between crude oil price and Asia-Pacific stock markets.

Cite this article

LI Su-fang, ZHU Hui-ming, LI Rong . Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015 , 23(9) : 46 -54 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.006

References

[1] Hamilton J D. Oil and the macroeconomy since World WarⅡ[J]. The Journal of Political Economy, 1983, 9(12): 228-248.

[2] Jones C M, Kaul G. Oil and the stock markets[J]. Journal of Finance, 1996, 51(2): 463-491.

[3] Sadorsky P. Oil price shocks and stock market activity[J]. Energy Economics, 1999, 21(99): 449-469.

[4] Ciner C. Energy shocks and financial markets: Nonlinear linkages[J]. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2001, 5(3): 203-212.

[5] Kilian L, Park C. The impact of oil price shocks on theU.S. stock market[J]. International Economic Review, 2009, 50(4):1267-1287.

[6] Nandha M, Faff R. Does oil move equity prices? A global view[J]. Energy Economics, 2008, 30(3): 986-997.

[7] Hammoudeh S, Li Huimin. Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices[J]. Journal of Economics and Business, 2005, 57(1): 1-21.

[8] Ghouri S S. Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks[J]. Energy Policy, 2006, 34(17): 3327-3333.

[9] Miller J I, Ratti R A. Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles[J]. Energy Economics, 2009, 31(4): 559-568.

[10] Aloui C, Jammazi R. The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach[J]. Energy Economics, 2009, 31(5): 789-799.

[11] Chen S S. Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?[J] Energy Economics, 2010, 32(2): 490-495.

[12] Hammoudeh S, Choi K. Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: the case of GCC countries[J]. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2007, 17(3): 231-245.

[13] Nandha M, Hammoudeh S. Systematic risk, and oil price and exchange rate sensitivities in Asia-Pacific stock markets[J]. Research in International Business and Finance, 2007, 21(2): 326-341.

[14] Boyer M M, Filion D. Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies[J]. Energy Economics, 2007, 29(3): 428-453.

[15] Narayan P K, Narayan S. Modelling the impact of oil prices onVietnam's stock prices[J]. Applied Energy, 2010, 87(1): 356-361.

[16] Arouri M E H, Rault C. Oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from panel analysis[J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2012, 17(3): 242-253.

[17] Park J, Ratti R A. Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries[J]. Energy Economics, 2008, 30(5): 2587-2608.

[18] Cong Ronggang, Wei Yiming, Jiao Jianlin, et al. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis fromChina[J]. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(9): 3544-3553.

[19] Arouri H M E., Nguyen K D. Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(8): 4528-4539.

[20] 姬强,范英.次贷危机前后国际原油市场与中美股票市场间的协动性研究[J].中国管理科学,2010,18(6):42-50.

[21] 董坤,谢海滨,汪寿阳. 中国股票市场的石油效应之谜[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(11):45-53.

[22] Henriques I, Sadorsky P. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies[J]. Energy Economics, 2008, 30(3): 998-1010.

[23] Apergis N, Miller S M. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?[J] Energy Economics, 2009, 31(4): 569-575.

[24] Jammazi R, Aloui C. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(3): 1415-1435.

[25] Al-Fayoumi N A. Oil prices and stock market returns in oil importing countries: The case of Turkey, Tunisia and Jordan[J]. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 2009, 16: 86-101.

[26] Mohanty S, Nandha M, Bota G. Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE)oil and gas sectors[J]. Emerging Markets Review, 2010, 11(4): 358-372.

[27] Afshar T A, Arabian G, Zomorrodian R. Oil price shocks and the U.S stock market.Proccedings of IABR & TLC Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA, 2008,September.

[28] Chen C W S. A Bayesian analysis of generalized threshold autoregressive models[J]. Statistics & Probability Letters, 1998, 40(1): 15-22.

[29] Park S J, Shin D W, Park B V,et al. Bayesian test for asymmetry and nonstationarity in MTAR model with possibly incomplete data[J]. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2005, 49(4): 1192-1204.

[30] Bauwens L, Lubrano M, Richard J F. Bayesian inference in dynamic econometric models[M]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999.

[31] Villani M. Aspects of Bayesian cointegration. Sweden: University of Stockholm, 2000.

[32] Granger C W J, Hallman J J. Long-memory series with attractors[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 53(1): 11-26.

[33] Granger C W J. Some recent generalizations of cointegration and the analysis of long-run relationships[M]//Engle R F,Grangerc W J. Long-run economic relationships. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991, 277-287.

[34] Meese R A, Rose A K. An empirical assessment of nonlinearities in models of exchange rate determination[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1991, 58(3): 603-619.
Outlines

/