The reform of the exchange rate mechanism and the split-share structure strengthen the integration of China's foreign exchange market and the stock market. In the near term, the continuous evolution of the pressure of RMB appreciation and the outbreak of several major economic crisis further enhance the correlation between the two markets. The volatility spillover effect between the domestic foreign exchange market and stock market is investigated using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and Multivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model. Empirical results not only show that significant volatility spillover effects between the two markets exist, and the two markets exist different volatility spillover effects with different trading cycle, that is, in the short-term the stock market pass the one-way effect to the foreign exchange market. With the cycle becomes longer it develops to be bidirectional spillover effects, among which the foreign exchange market to the stock market volatility spillover effects are more intense. In the long-term only minor spillover effects are passed to foreign exchange market from the stock market.
XIONG Zheng-de, WEN Hui, XIONG Yi-peng
. Empirical Research on Spillover Effect between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market by Wavelet Multi-resolution Analysis and Multivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015
, 23(4)
: 30
-38
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.04.004
[1] Kanas A.Volatility spillovers between stock returns and exchange rate changes:International evidence[J].Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 2000, 27(3-4):447-467.
[2] Bodart V, Reding P.Do foreign exchange markets matter for industry stock returns? An empirical investigation[R].Working Paper, Catholic University, 2001.
[3] Caporale G M, Pittis N, Spagnolo N.Testing for causality in variance:An application to the east asian markets[J].International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2002, 7(3):235-245.
[4] 熊正德, 谢敏.金融市场间波动溢出效应理论研究与评价[J].生产力研究, 2008, (1):51-53.
[5] 李成, 马文涛, 王彬.我国金融市场间溢出效应研究——基于四元VAR-GARCH(1, 1)-BEKK模型的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2010, (6):3-18.
[6] Yang S Y, Doong S C.Price and volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates:Empirical evidence from the g-7 countries[J].International Journal of Business and Economics, 2004, 3(2):139-153.
[7] Tastan H.Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets[J].Physica, 2006, 360(2):445-458.
[8] Walid C, Chaker A, Masood O, et al.Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries:A markov-state switching approach[J].Emerging Markets Review, 2011, 12 (3):272-292.
[9] 巴曙松, 严敏.股票价格与汇率之间的动态关系——基于中国市场的经验分析[J].南开经济研究, 2009, (2):46-60.
[10] 朱新玲, 黎鹏.人民币汇率与股票价格的联动效应——基于溢出和动态相关视角[J].金融理论与实践, 2011, (5):8-12.
[11] Loh L.Volatility spillovers in Asian bond market:A wavelet analysis[R].Working Paper, University of Nottingham, 2008.
[12] Rua L, Nunes L C.International comovement of stock market returns:A wavelet analysis[J]. Journal of Empirical Finance, 2009, 16(4):632-639.
[13] Bodart V, Candelon B.Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework[J].Emerging Markets Review, 2009, 10(2):140-150.
[14] Hamrita M E, Trifit A.The relationship between interest rate, exchange rate and stock price:A wavelet analysis[J].International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2011, 1(4):220-228.
[15] 宿成建, 刘星, 刘礼培, 等.应用小波分析方法研究沪深股市的溢出效应[J].系统工程学报, 2004, 19(1):99-103.
[16] 徐梅, 张世英.基于小波分析的金融波动分析[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2005, 25(2):1-9.
[17] 余宇新, 杨大楷.股权分置改革对沪港市场联动性影响的研究——基于小波多分辨率的分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2009, 24(6):33-38.
[18] 金秀, 王佳星, 刘烨.基于小波分析的中国A, B股市场相关性研究[J].东北大学学报, 2010, 31(5):750-752.
[19] 胡秋灵, 马丽.基于多分辨分析的股市与债市溢出效应研究[J].金融理论与实践, 2011, (10):91-93.
[20] 谢赤, 张丽, 孙柏.外汇市场与股票市场间波动溢出效应——基于汇改后数据的小波多分辨分析[J].系统管理学报, 2012, 21(1):13-21.
[21] Grossmann A, Morlet J. Decomposition of hardy functions into square integrable wavelets of constant shape[J]. SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, 1984, 15(4):723-736.
[22] Mallat S G.A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition:The wavelet representation[J]. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 1989, 11(7):674-693.