基于GERT的优质农产品质量链风险控制研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1128

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to accelerate the development of quality control system of high-quality agricultural products and improve the supply capacity of high-quality agricultural products， based on the GERT theory， the three levels of quality chain links， processes and quality （control） activities are nested in the same network analysis framework， the network characterization of quality risk transfer of high-quality agricultural products is analyzed， and the parameters of the network are updated by means of Bayesian updating from the “human-machine-data-fa-environment” multiple aspects to study the risk control path. “By updating the network parameters in a Bayesian way， the risk control path is studied from multiple aspects， and then the risk transfer and risk control model of agricultural product quality chain is constructed with the optimization goal of minimizing the quality risk and risk control cost. On this basis， the vertically integrated apple production enterprise is taken as an example to clarify the quality risk proliferation transfer mechanism， and the optimal cost-risk control strategy for high-quality agricultural products is proposed in combination with the risk control cost. It is shown that， due to the different processes and quality activities in each link， the amount of quality risk proliferation is not the same， but the source management is still crucial to reduce the transmission of quality risk and prevent the proliferation of risk； “human-machine-material-method-environment” multi-faceted risk control is effective in reducing the risk of hidden danger， but it will bring about high costs， and the enterprise can choose the first one according to its own endowment situation， and then choose the first one according to its own endowment situation. Enterprises can choose “high” cost-effective risk control strategies according to their own endowment， and then gradually change to all-round risk control； when enterprises make decisions on risk control， they should assess their own endowment， and apply measures according to their circumstances.

Key words: quality agricultural products, quality chain, GERT, Bayesian, risk multiplication, risk control

CLC Number:

F203

Guangsi Li, Shaobo Zhang. Research on Risk Control of Quality Chain of Quality Agricultural Products Based on GERT[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(9): 236-247.

Figures/Tables 10

References 43

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Research on Risk Control of Quality Chain of Quality Agricultural Products Based on GERT

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Figures/Tables 10

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排序	风险值	质量活动	溯及工艺	溯及环节
1	0.869	30	9	2
2	0.859	20	7	1
3	0.852	49	15	3
4	0.846	50	16	4
5	0.844	24	6	1
6	0.823	47	15	4
7	0.812	41	13	3
8	0.808	44	14	4
9	0.8	34	10	2
10	0.796	33	10	2
11	0.796	26	8	2
12	0.794	35	11	3

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