Abstract:

Emergency evacuation is an important component of nuclear accident emergency management. When making evacuation decisions， residents will consider not only the current information， but also the impact of future information. Therefore， it is necessary to study the evacuation process considering residents' dynamic independent decision-making.In this paper， based on the cell transmission model， a nuclear emergency evacuation simulation model considering residents' dynamic independent decision-making is constructed. In this model， the initial decision mechanism for evacuation is made according to residents' willingness to cooperate. Based on the information of plume diffusion， road network traffic and the use of decontamination stations that can be obtained by residents during evacuation， the changes of plume diffusion and road network traffic in the future can be predicted. Meanwhile， the impact of panic on residents' decision-making should also be considered. According to these， the evacuation route updating decision mechanism and decontamination station updating decision mechanism are constructed comprehensively.Taking Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant as an example， a field questionnaire survey is conducted to obtain the data of residents’ willingness to cooperate and evacuation preparation time distribution. Under the two evacuation scenarios， the impact of the proportion of resources reserved for residents evacuated by bus and residents' willingness to cooperate on evacuation effect （i.e.， the maximum evacuation time， the maximum cumulative danger and the unbalanced use of decontamination stations） is simulated. The results can provide some basis for nuclear accident emergency management.

Key words: dynamic decision-making, forecasting information, residents’ willingness to cooperate, cell transmission model, evacuation simulation, nuclear emergency management