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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 77-89.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0177

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Contagion Effects of Associated Credit Risk in Supply Chain under Multiple Associated Relationships

XIE Xiao-feng1, YANG Yang2, ZHANG Feng-ying1, HU Xiu-ying1, ZHOU Zong-fang3   

  1. 1. West China School of Nursing/West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Sichuan 610041, China;
    2. School of Economics Mathematics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan 611130, China;
    3. School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Sichuan 611731, China
  • Received:2019-01-30 Revised:2020-01-22 Online:2021-09-20 Published:2021-09-20

Abstract: The multiple associated relationships between supply chain enterprises lead to the complexity of credit risk contagion. Based on the dual-channel financing mode in supply chain, aiming at the scenario of triple associated relationships in the supply chain:transaction associated relationship, asset associated relationship and interpersonal associated relationship, the associated credit risk contagion mechanism is revealed, the associated credit risk contagion intensity model is built, and the effects of three types of associated relationships and off-chain markets on contagion effects are discussed. In order to study the spillover effect of associated credit risk contagion, the expected losses faced by Banks are discussed when the Banks do not recognize the relationships in the supply chain. Combined with the simulation analysis, it is found that compared with the single commercial credit financing, the contagion effect is weaker under the dual-channel financing mode;under the optimal transaction associated relationship intensity, the commercial credit limits and costs (which reflect an asset associated relationship in the supply chain) have an impact on the contagion effect in different directions,interpersonal associated relationships and off-chain markets both negatively affect contagion effects; the bank's expected loss is related to the loan interest rates and the ratio of loans to demands, and the interpersonal associated relationship leads to the bank's larger potential loss.

Key words: supply chain, dual-channel financing, multiple associated relationships, associated credit risk, contagion effect

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