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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (10): 141-148.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.016

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Research Project Evaluation and Selection in the NSFC: An Approach Based on the Evidential Reasoning Rule with Reliability

ZHU Wei-dong1, LIU Fang2, WANG Dong-peng3, Jian-Bo Yang2,4   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
    2. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
    3. School of Management, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China;
    4. Manchester Business School, the University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UK
  • Received:2015-01-28 Revised:2015-09-02 Online:2016-10-20 Published:2016-12-27

Abstract: Research project evaluation and selection is one of the core research management activities in the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Through taking into consideration evaluation criteria and selection procedure, a systematic method of implementing the evidential reasoning rule is presented to aggregate evaluation information on multiple criteria by multiple experts. The proposed method has the following strengths:1) combine evaluation information with different weights and reliabilities effectively, 2) employ a confusion matrix for generating experts' evaluation reliabilities, as experts may have different knowledge background and expertise, and 3) use a belief distribution to represent the overall performance profile of research projects in a more informative way. The belief distribution can be further transformed as utilities which are used to support the decision making of project selection. A case study on the project evaluation and selection of the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: research project in the NSFC, evaluation and selection, evidential reasoning, reliability

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