Abstract: In this paper, buffer operator and grey GM(1,1)model are introduced to simulate and forecast the total energy consumption and energy consumption per GDP. Two kinds of control policy models based on energy consumption forecasting are established and Chinese energy consumption per GDP is selected as an example. The research shows that the grey model has well simulated and forecasted the total energy consumption and energy consumption per GDP.China has a great potential to save energy in the twelfth five-year period and can achieve the target of energy consumption successfully. The safe control policy is [0.48,1),which means that the government should adjust the control of the twelfth five-year period to 0.48~1 time the one of the eleventh period.

Key words: energy, policy impact, buffer operator, GM(1,1)model, control strategy