不确定需求情境下的供应链预测契约设计

Abstract

Abstract: The supply chain system composed of a manufacturer and a newsvendor retailer is the focus of this paper. In such system, the point is how to design contracts which aim at maximizing the manufacturer's expected revenue by incenting the retailer's demand forecast decision. A static game model is developed for the contract designing. It is found that the contract with demand forecast can lead to higher expected revenue with low forecasting cost in the centralized supply chain. As in the decentralize supply chain, the manufacturer bears the cost entirely and its expected revenue is negatively related to forecasting cost when the contract with demand forecast is selected, but the manufacturer's expected revenue is nondecreasing as forecasting cost increase when the contract without demand forecast is selected. Moreover, the optimal strategy about which contract can maximize the manufacturer's expected revenue is given.

Key words: supply chain, forecasting, contract, shortage cost

CLC Number:

F224
F274

LI Wu-qiang, LIU Shu-lin, SUN Rong-ting, LI Yi-bin. The Designing of Supply Chain Contract with Demand Forecast[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(5): 57-67.

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The Designing of Supply Chain Contract with Demand Forecast

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