动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析

Abstract

Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze monetary policy and China's business cycle. A dynamic inflation target is introduced to investigate how productivity shock, consumer's demand shock, inflation target shock and money supply shock influence China's economic fluctuations. The empirical evidence reveals that DSGE framework is suitable for the analysis of China's macroeconomic problems. It supports the assumption that China's monetary policy has a dynamic endogenous inflation target. The inflation target responds positively to the productivity shock and negatively to the consumer's demand shock. Furthermore, counterfactual simulation shows that the money supply mechanism with dynamic inflation target could stabilize inflation volatility.

Key words: dynamic inflation target, economic fluctuation, money supply mechanism

CLC Number:

F830
F019.6

JIAN Zhi-hong, ZHU Bai-song, LI Shuang. Dynamic Inflation Target, Money Supply Mechanism and China's Economic Fluctuation:A DSGE-based Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (1): 30-42.

References

[1] 刘金全,隋建利,李楠. 基于非线性VAR模型对我国货币政策非对称作用效应的实证检验[J].中国管理科学,2009,17(3): 47-55.
[2] 冉光和,曹跃群,钟德华. 要素投入、货币供应与中国经济波动[J].管理世界,2008,(2): 170-171.
[3] 吴振信,薛冰,王书平. 基于VAR模型的油价波动对我国经济影响分析[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(1): 21-28.
[4] 陈太明. 中国经济周期的福利成本差异性研究[J].管理世界,2008,(5): 12-29.
[5] 杜清源,龚六堂.带"金融加速器"的RBC模型[J].金融研究,2005,(4):16-30.
[6] 武康平,胡谍.房地产价格在宏观经济中的加速器作用研究[J].中国管理科学,2011,(19): 27-35.
[7] 黄赜琳.技术冲击和劳动供给对经济波动的影响分析——基于可分劳动RBC模型的实证检验[J].财经研究,2006,32:98-109.
[8] 李春吉,孟晓宏.中国经济波动——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析[J].经济研究,2006,10:72-82.
[9] 许伟,陈斌开.银行信贷与中国经济波动[J].经济学季刊,2009,(2):969-994.
[10] 谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究,2002,(3):3-12.
[11] Ireland, P.N..Technology shocks in the new Keynesian model[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86(4): 923-936.
[12] Woodford, M..Firms-specific capital and the new Keynesian Phillips curve[Z].MPRA Paper, No.825.2005.
[13] Calvo, G.A..Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics, 1983, 12: 383-98.
[14] Bernanke, B., Gertler M., Gilchrist S..The Financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework .In Taylor, J., M.Woodford (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics ,Vol .1C.Amsterdam: North Holland, 1999.
[15] Smets, F., Wouters,R..An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area[J].The European Economic Association,2003,1(5): 1123-1175.
[16] Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum,M., Evans,C.L..Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy[J].The Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113: 1-45.
[17] Woodford, M.Interest and Prices: Foundations of A Theory of Monetary Policy[M].Princeton University Press,2003.
[18] Gali, J., Gertler,M..Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2007, 21(4): 25-45.
[19] Gali, J..Monetary policy, Inflation and the Business cycle[M].Princeton University Press,2008.
[20] Rotemberg, J.J..Stick prices in the United States[J].Journal of Political Economy,1982,90:1187-1211.
[21] Klein, P..Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2000, 24: 1405-1423.
[22] Hamilton, J.D..Time series analysis[M].Princeton University Press,1994.
[23] Baxter, M., King,R.G..Measuring business cycle: approximate band-pass filter for economic time series[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1999,81(4):575-593.
[24] 谢安.对我国消费价格指数编制方法的一点看法[J].统计研究,1998,(3):72-74.
[25] 许志伟,薛鹤翔,罗大庆.融资约束与中国经济波动[J].经济学季刊,2010,(1): 83-110.

Dynamic Inflation Target, Money Supply Mechanism and China's Economic Fluctuation:A DSGE-based Analysis

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 2

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10

[1]	CAO Fei. Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(7): 45-52.
[2]	LI Shuang, JIAN Zhi-hong, ZHENG Jun-yao. Oil Price Shocks and Economic Volatility Risk Minimization Based Analysis of Money Supply Mechanism [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (2): 26-33.