Abstract: Based on geometric lag distribution dynamic econometric model,the article builds up the relationships between advertising and customer telephone responses, and evaluates the short-term effectiveness of different newspaper advertising by using practical data.Results reveal that the model could evaluate and predicate the same sort of media better.Customer telephone response variable shows short-term advertising stimulus-response characteristic.The bias will exists when we use newspaper circulation as media selection criterion.Retention rate of newspaper advertising is very low,so companies who rely on newspaper advertising heavily could deliver advertising everyday or every other day.

Key words: advertising effectiveness, media evaluation, geometric lag distribution, retention rate