基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.02.006

中国管理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2): 50-56.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.02.006

基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究

李辉¹, 齐二石²

1. 天津商业大学物流系, 天津 300134;
2. 天津大学管理与经济学部, 天津 300072

收稿日期:2014-10-27 修回日期:2015-12-22 出版日期:2017-02-20 发布日期:2017-05-03
通讯作者: 李辉(1983-),男(汉族),天津人,天津商业大学物流系,讲师,研究方向:运营管理、物流管理,E-mail:tjhuihuilihui@126.com. E-mail:tjhuihuilihui@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（70671072）

Advance Sellingin the Presence of Uncertainty Market Size

LI Hui¹, QI Er-shi²

1. Department of Logistics, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China;
2. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Received:2014-10-27 Revised:2015-12-22 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-05-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预售是一种在产品正式投向市场之前就允许消费者提前订购商品的经销策略，这一策略可以降低市场需求的不确定性，帮助销售商更好的预测市场需求。本文研究了在市场规模不确定的条件下销售商能够实施预售策略的条件，基于策略型消费者的行为特点构建报童模型，对预售与不预售两种销售策略展开了对比研究，通过构建两种策略下销售商的收益模型得出相应的最优预售价格和最优订货量。研究发现，当消费者对商品的期望估值较大或商品订货成本较低时，预售会给销售商带来更多利润，否则销售商会倾向于选择不预售的销售策略。销售商实施预售策略时，其预售价格并不一定要小于现货价格，消费者为了避免在现货期缺货的风险，在一定条件下，也有可能愿意支付更高的预售价格而在预售期购买，此时的预售价格会高于现货价格。

关键词: 预售, 不确定性, 报童模型, 策略型消费者

Abstract: Advance selling is the sale of a product before it is released. This strategy can help the retailer to better forecast the demand through reducing the uncertainty of demand. In this paper, the conditions that a retailer can implement advance selling strategy are examined in the case of uncertain market size. Based on the behavior properties of strategic consumers, the newsvendor model is established to take the comparative study between the strategies of advance selling and no advance selling, and the optimal advance price and order quantity are obtained through establishing the profit functions of the two sales strategies. It is fourd that when the consumers' expected valuation of the product is high or when the unit order cost is low, advance selling may bring more profit to the retailer. Otherwise, the retailer may be inclined to prefer no advance selling strategy. When the retailer applies advance selling strategy, the advance price is not always smaller than spot price. In order to avoid the risk of stock-out in spot period, under some certain situations, the consumers are likely to pay a higher price to buy in advance period. Under this situation, the advance price may be higher than the spot price.

Key words: advance selling, uncertainty, newsvendor model, strategic consumer

中图分类号:

C931

李辉, 齐二石. 基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(2): 50-56.

LI Hui, QI Er-shi. Advance Sellingin the Presence of Uncertainty Market Size[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(2): 50-56.

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基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究

Advance Sellingin the Presence of Uncertainty Market Size

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