主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
　　　中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 91-99.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0130

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于预售融资和银行融资组合策略的风险规避供应链的决策研究

王志宏1, 施金钰1, 郭剑锋2, 吴仪1   

  1. 1.东华大学旭日工商管理学院，上海200051； 2.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京100190
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-19 修回日期:2021-05-20 出版日期:2023-06-20 发布日期:2023-06-17
  • 通讯作者: 郭剑锋（1976-），男（汉族），山东夏津人，中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，研究员，博士，研究方向：信息管理，Email:guojf@casipm.ac.cn. E-mail:guojf@casipm.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    上海市哲学社会科学规划课题项目（2017BGL014）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（71671180，71832001，72271050）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2232020B-04，2232018H-07）

Decision-Making of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Based on a Combination Strategy of Preselling Financing and Bank Loan

WANG Zhi-hong1, SHI Jin-yu1, GUO Jian-feng2, WU Yi1   

  1. 1. Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China;2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2021-01-19 Revised:2021-05-20 Online:2023-06-20 Published:2023-06-17
  • Contact: 郭剑锋 E-mail:guojf@casipm.ac.cn

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摘要： 针对制造商的生产资金短缺问题，考虑零售商的风险规避行为，研究供应链的预售融资和银行融资组合策略以及优化决策。构建和优化风险规避供应链的Stackelberg博弈模型，得到制造商的最优预售折扣比例和生产量以及零售商的最优预购量，分析决策之间的相互作用。研究发现：制造商可以通过设定预售折扣比例，激励风险规避零售商参与预售，确定银行融资和预售融资两种模式的动态组合。零售商的最优预购量随着预售折扣比例的增加而减少，且呈现分段函数的特征；零售商的最优预购量并不总是随着其风险规避系数的增加而减少，其单调性还受到制造商预售折扣比例范围的影响。当制造商仅选择预售融资时，其最优生产量与零售商最优预购量成正比；而当制造商选择预售融资和银行融资组合策略时，其最优生产量为一个固定量。

关键词: 资金约束制造商；预售融资；银行融资；风险规避零售商

Abstract: The combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan is a financing mode for upstream manufacturers to solve the problem of production capital shortage and to ensure the stable operation of product supply and supply chain. Considering the risk aversion behavior of retailers, the supply chain optimization decision under the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan is studied. First, the three-stage Stackelberg game between the capital-constrained manufacturer and the risk-averse retailer is analyzed, namely, “manufacturer’s preselling discount decision-retailer’s pre-purchase decision-manufacturer’s production decision”. Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is used to describe the retailer’s risk aversion behavior, and then the supply chain decision-making models are constructed and optimized. The optimal preselling discount of the manufacturer, the optimal production and the optimal pre-purchase quantity of the retailer are obtained. The interaction between the decisions is further discussed. The influences of risk aversion coefficient, bank interest rate and retailer’s stock-out cost on the optimal decision-making of the supply chain are analyzed. The results show that: manufacturers can set the preselling discount to encourage risk-averse retailers to participate in preselling, and determine the dynamic combination of preselling financing and bank loan. The retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity decreases with the increase of preselling discount, and presents the characteristics of piecewise function; The retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity does not always decrease with the increase of risk aversion coefficient, and its monotonicity is also affected by the range of manufacturer’s preselling discount proportion. When the manufacturer only chooses preselling financing, its optimal production is directly proportional to the retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity. When the manufacturer chooses the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan, the optimal production is a fixed quantity. This study provides scientific support for manufacturers to choose reasonable financing methods to solve the problem of capital shortage when facing the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan.

Key words: capital-constrained manufacturer; preselling financing; bank loan; risk-averse retailer

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