关键词: 企业债券, 融资余额, GM(1,1)模型, 预测

Abstract: Enterprise bonds obviously lag far behind the whole capital markets in China.The voice of quickening development of enterprise bonds markets is more and more higher.But wiping off the bondage of administrative framework to enterprise bonds development will be a long-time process.In this background,the paper makes quantitative prediction to corporate bonds financing in China.Considering that factors which affect corporate bonds development are more and uncertain,the author predicts it with GM (1,1) model.GM (1,1) is a gray exponential model with distortions,its precision lies on conformation of backg round value and selection of original condition.In literature,GM(1,1) models were optimized,with one side,GM(1,1) models.Independent adoptions of optimizing background values and original conditions of GM(1,1) can,at a certain extent,improve the precision of the model.Based on the idea that we have a bove reasoned,it is produced that a new GM (1,1) model of integrated optimizing its background value and original condition.Through comparisons of simulation data,the author finds that new GM (1,1) model has a higher simulation precision.

Key words: corporate bonds, outstanding bond fund, GM(1,1), prediction