基于韧性和社会福利的应急医疗物资供应链均衡优化

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0555

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

应急医疗物资是在突发事件中保障人民生命安全的重要物资，突发事件频发使其供应链中断的风险不断提高，严重影响了人们的生产活动和生命安全，提高其供应链的韧性迫在眉睫。本文构建了由供应商—制造商—需求市场构成的三级应急医疗物资供应链，利用SEIR传染病动力学模型进行需求预测，并通过多源采购和安全库存两种策略在供应链中预嵌韧性；同时考虑环境污染、资源消耗和政府补贴等社会福利因素，以最小化系统期望总成本和最大化需求总满足率构建双目标混合整数规划模型。探讨在考虑不同等级突发事件的情境下，具有韧性的应急医疗物资供应链各供应设施的选址和产量、设施间的供应关系及物流量、制造商的安全库存持有量及使用量；并通过算例、对比分析和敏感性分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明：相对仅以期望总成本为导向的供应链网络结构，本文所构建的供应链将需求总满足率提高了16.84%，但期望总成本仅提高了2.10%；同时在应对突发公共卫生事件时具有更强的韧性。

关键词: 应急医疗物资, 供应链建模, 韧性, 社会福利

Abstract:

Emergency medical supplies are important materials to guarantee people's life safety in emergencies. Frequent public emergencies increase the risk of the interruption of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， seriously impacting people's work and life safety. The immediate reason of supply chain disruption is the explosion of downstream demand for emergency medical supplies caused by public emergencies， and the root cause is the cost-oriented supply chain design of the enterprises， i.e.， reduction in inventory and highly concentrated raw material procurement by only a few enterprises for cost reduction. Therefore， it is imperative to improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， such as by increasing redundancy and multi-source procurement.In the context of infectious public health emergencies， this paper constructs a three-level supply chain of emergency medical supplies， consisting of suppliers， manufacturers and market demand. The SEIR dynamics model is used to forecast the demand for emergency medical supplies， and resilience is embedded in its supply chain through multi-source procurement and increased redundancy. Meanwhile， considering the impact of the supply chain on social welfare， environmental pollution， resource consumption， government subsidies and other factors are quantified to constitute the total cost of the supply chain. Via mathematical modeling， a dual-objective mixed-integer programming model is constructed to take into account of both resilience and cost. The model minimizes the total expected cost and maximizes the total satisfaction rate of demand， aiming at solving the network design of the supply chain of emergency medical materials supply chain. The dual-objective model is then converted to a single-objective model by the weighted-sum method， and the weight parameter is used to indicate the degree of emphasis on resilience and cost in decision-making. Finally， the validity of the model is verified via simulation， comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis.The results indicate that compared with the cost-oriented supply chain， the supply chain model presented in this paper increases the total demand satisfaction by 16.84% while the expected total cost only increases by 2.10%. It also shows stronger resilience under public health emergencies. Additionally， it is found that the manufacturers should keep the minimum logistics volume with the resilient-oriented auxiliary supplier when maintaining main logistics with the cost-oriented dominant supplier. Significant emergency medical supplies should be kept in the highest inventory to cope with demand fluctuations within a small and medium range. In addition， the supply chain still needs to pay the cost to set up a sufficient reserve capacity to tackle wide demand fluctuations. The model presented in this paper can effectively improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies with while taking cost into account and provide suggestions for the design of a resilient supply chain of emergency medical supplies.

Key words: emergency medical supplies, supply chain modeling, resilience, social welfare

中图分类号:

R197

孙莹,刘慧萍,颜瑞,张群. 基于韧性和社会福利的应急医疗物资供应链均衡优化[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(8): 132-141.

Ying SUN,Hui-ping LIU,Rui YAN,Qun ZHANG. Equilibrium Optimization of the Supply Chain of Emergency Medical Supplies Based on Resilience and Social Welfare[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(8): 132-141.

图/表 12

图1

图2

图3

表1

需求市场状态变量的初始值 (人)"

名称	$S 1$	$E 1$	$I 1$
需求市场1	59956	368	32
需求市场2	68845	141	16
需求市场3	77316	277	24
需求市场4	86058	183	11

表1

图4

表2

表3

模型对比分析结果"

名称		供应链总成本 $T C$ /元	需求总满足率 $T S R$ /%
发生情境1	传统供应链	76213287.50	80.00
发生情境1	本文供应链	130331375.00	85.98
发生情境5	传统供应链	1367005316.70	80.00
发生情境5	本文供应链	1651186550.00	100.00

表3

表4

权重参数α敏感性分析结果1"

$α$	$e T C$ /%	$e T S R$ /%	$z$
0.1	11.52	0.50	0.0160
0.2	5.16	1.39	0.0214
0.3	3.53	1.84	0.0235
0.4	3.40	1.91	0.0251
0.5	2.10	3.10	0.0260
0.6	0.76	4.58	0.0229
0.7	0.30	5.32	0.0181
0.8	0.30	5.32	0.0131
0.9	0.30	5.32	0.0080

表4

表5

权重参数α敏感性分析结果2"

$α$	$T S R$ /%	$T C$ /元
0.1	99.50	199460165.00
0.2	98.61	188082179.00
0.3	98.16	185170224.00
0.4	98.09	184940158.00
0.5	96.90	182610608.00
0.6	95.42	180215577.00
0.7	94.68	179398868.00
0.8	94.68	179391610.00
0.9	94.68	179385965.00

表5

图5

图6

图7

参考文献 26

1	Hendricks K B， Singhal V R.Association between supply chain glitches and operating performance［J］. Management Science，2005，51（5）：695-711.
2	刘浩华.打造弹性供应链［J］.中央财经大学学报，2007（5）：63-68.
	Liu Haohua.Creating a resilient supply chain against risks［J］.Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics，2007（5）：63-68.
3	Wang Xu， Zhang Xiaoxi， He Jiangjiang.Challenges to the system of reserve medical supplies for public health emergencies： Reflections on the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 （SARS-CoV-2） epidemic in China［J］. Bioscience Trends， 2020，14（1）：3-8.
4	陆阳，戴剑峰，杨林，等.基于行动者网络理论的应对突发公共卫生事件应急医疗物资保障机制探讨［J］.中国医院，2021，25（10）：42-45.
	Lu Yang， Dai Jianfeng， Yang Lin，et al.Research on support mechanism of emergency medical supplies for emergency public health events based on the actor-network theory［J］.Chinese Hospitals，2021，25（10）：42-45.
5	李珍萍，张煜炜，田歆，等.应急医疗物资储备与分配问题研究［J］.系统科学与数学，2021，41（12）：3422-3445.
	Li Zhenping， Zhang Yuwei， Tian Xin，et al.Research on reserve and distribution problem of emergency medical supplies［J］.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences，2021，41（12）：3422-3445.
6	Zhang Weijian， Shi Xianliang， Huang Anqiang，et al. Optimal stock and capital reserve policies for emergency medical supplies against epidemic outbreaks［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2023， 304（1）： 183-191.
7	Caunhye A M， Zhang Yidong， Li Mingzhe，et al. A location-routing model for prepositioning and distributing emergency supplies［J］. Transportation research Part E：Logistics and Transportation Review， 2016， 90： 161-176.
8	王喆，邵鸿远，丛子皓，等.考虑供应商聚类的应急医疗物资协同配送仿真［J］.系统仿真学报，2022，34（10）：2303-2311.
	Wang Zhe， Shao Hongyuan， Cong Zihao，et al.Simulation of emergency medical materials collaborative distribution considering supplier clustering［J］.Journal of System Simulation，2022，34（10）：2303-2311.
9	宋英华，裴俊龙，方丹辉，等.常态化疫情防控背景下区域应急医疗物资选址-分配模型［J］.中国安全生产科学技术，2021，17（11）：5-9.
	Song Yinghua， Pei Junlong， Fang Danhui，et al. Location-allocation model of regional emergency medical material under background of normalized epidemic prevention and control［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2021，17（11）：5-9.
10	Sirbiladze G， Matsaberidze B， Ghvaberidze B，et al.Fuzzy TOPSIS based selection index in the planning of emergency service facilities locations and goods transportation［J］. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems， 2021，41（1）：1949-1962.
11	Liu Jia， Xie Kefan.Emergency materials transportation model in disasters based on dynamic programming and ant colony optimization［J］. Kybernetes， 2017， 46（4）： 656-671.
12	刘明，李颖祖，曹杰，等.突发疫情环境下基于服务水平的应急物流网络优化设计［J］.中国管理科学，2020，28（3）：11-20.
	Liu Ming， Li Yingzu， Cao Jie，et al.An optimal design of emergency logistics network for epidemic controlling based on service level［J］.Chinese Journal of Management Science，2020，28（3）：11-20.
13	胡晓伟，宋浪，杨滨毓，等.重大突发公共卫生事件下城市应急医疗物资优化调度研究［J］.中国公路学报，2020，33（11）：55-64.
	Hu Xiaowei， Song Lang， Yang Binyu，et al.Optimal matching of urban emergency medical supplies under major public health events［J］.China Journal of Highway and Transport，2020，33（11）：55-64.
14	Wang Xiaojia， Liang Zhizhen， Zhu Keyu.Markov decision model of emergency medical supply scheduling in public health emergencies of infectious diseases［J］.International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems，2021，14（1）： 1155-1169.
15	Liu Jia， Bai Jinyu， Wu Desheng.Medical supplies scheduling in major public health emergencies［J］. Transportation Research Part E：Logistics and Transportation Review，2021，154（2）：102464-102464.
16	阮俊虎，王旭坪，杨挺.大规模灾害中基于聚类的医疗物资联合运送优化［J］.中国管理科学，2014，22（10）：80-89.
	Ruan Junhu， Wang Xuping， Yang Ting.A clustering-based approach for medical supplies intermodal transportation in large scale disasters［J］.Chinese Journal of Management Science，2014，22（10）：80-89.
17	Christopher M， Peck H.Building the resilient supply chain［J］. The International Journal of Logistics Management，2004，15（2）：1-14.
18	Ponomarov S Y， Holcomb M C.Understanding the concept of supply chain resilience［J］.The International Journal of Logistics Management，2009，20（1）：124-143.
19	刘希龙，季建华.基于应急供应的弹性供应网络设计研究［J］.控制与决策，2007，22（11）： 1223-1227.
	Liu Xilong， Ji Jianhua.Resillient supply network design based on contingency supply［J］.Control and Decision，2007，22（11）：1223-1227.
20	Chowdhury M M H， Quaddus M.Supply chain resilience： conceptualization and scale development using dynamic capability theory［J］. International Journal of Production Economics， 2017，188：185-204.
21	宁钟，戴俊俊.期权在供应链风险管理中的应用［J］.系统工程理论与实践，2005，25（7）：49-54.
	Ning Zhong， Dai Junjun.The application of options in supply chain risk management［J］.Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice，2005，25（7）：49-54.
22	Barroso A P， Machado V C， Barros A R.Toward a resilient supply chain with supply disturbances ［C］//Proceedings of 2010 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management，Macao，China，December 7-10， 2010.
23	Rezapour S， Farahani R Z， Pourakbar M. Resilient supply chain network design under competition： a case study［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2016， 259（3）：1017-1035.
24	肖建华，刘侠，尚帅，等.基于节点失效和需求不确定的弹性供应链网络优化模型与算法［J］.统计与决策，2018，34（17）：50-53.
	Xiao Jianhua， Liu Xia， Shang Shuai，et al.Optimization model and algorithm for resilient supply chain networks based on node failure and demand uncertainty［J］.Statistics & Decision，2018，34（17）： 50-53.
25	Bottani E， Murino T， Schiavo M，et al.Resilient food supply chain design： Modelling framework and metaheuristic solution approach［J］. Computers & Industrial Engineering，2019，135：177-198.
26	汪小勤，吴士炜.中国城市的社会福利状况及其影响因素——以289个地级市为例［J］.城市问题，2016（9）：11-17+57.
	Wang Xiaoqin， Wu Shiwei. Status of Chinese urban social welfare and influencing factors： taking 289 prefectural cities for example［J］. Urban Problems， 2016（9）：11-17+57.

名称	主导供应商	辅助供应商
制造商1	供应商1	供应商2
制造商2	供应商2	供应商4
制造商3	供应商3	供应商4
制造商4	供应商3	供应商1

[1]	李忠萍, 王建军. 分级诊疗体系中优质服务能力再配置决策与利益共享协调机制设计[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(4): 205-217.
[2]	刘名武, 付巧灵, 刘亚琼. 加征关税下的跨国供应链决策及补贴策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(1): 92-103.
[3]	孔乐佳, 侯玉梅, 郑迪文. 基于动态博弈的远程医疗政策与患者社会福利研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2023, 31(1): 176-186.
[4]	杨晓辉, 游达明. 考虑消费者环保意识与政府补贴的企业绿色技术创新决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(9): 263-274.
[5]	高蕾, 龚晶. 基于线性分段恢复函数的基础设施韧性分析模型——以C县电力系统网络为例[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(12): 86-95.
[6]	盛昭瀚, 王海燕, 胡志华. 供应链韧性：适应复杂性——基于复杂系统管理视角[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(11): 1-7.
[7]	蔡强, 卫贵武, 黄晶, 夏晖. 基于社会福利的可再生能源R&D激励政策评价[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(1): 206-221.
[8]	张俊光, 季飞. 基于开工柔韧性的关键链项目缓冲分配方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021, 29(8): 126-135.
[9]	孙兰, 梅长杉. 上下游企业间R&D合作网络形成及其社会福利[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(9): 76-85.
[10]	李京, 王国庆, 朱建明, 徐康. 冰雪灾害背景下电网投资优化和韧性提升模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(3): 122-131.
[11]	高岩. 智能电网实时电价社会福利最大化模型的研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(10): 201-209.
[12]	刘征驰, 邹智力, 马滔. 技术赋能、用户规模与共享经济社会福利[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(1): 222-230.
[13]	周艳菊, 胡凤英, 周正龙. 碳税政策下制造商竞争的供应链定价策略和社会福利研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(7): 94-105.
[14]	叶泽, 吴永飞, 张新华, 刘思强, 何姣. 需求响应下解决交叉补贴的阶梯电价方案研究——基于社会福利最大化视角[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(4): 149-159.
[15]	刘健, 张帅, 赵洪款, 刘思峰. 基于顾客公平偏好的服务机制与定价研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(12): 175-184.