基于企业行为偏好的企业间信用担保网络与风险传染研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0787

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文从行为金融学视角，结合复杂网络理论和信用担保关系选择机制构建了内生性企业间信用担保网络以及企业间信用担保网络风险传染模型，仿真分析了企业间信用担保网络结构及其风险传染演化特征。研究得到如下主要结论：(1)随着时间演化，企业间信用担保网络结构呈现“弱去中心化”特征，而且企业间信用担保网络的复杂性与稳定性增强；(2)企业资信水平不仅能够提高“担保圈”风险冲击概率，而且可以降低信用担保系统的不稳定性。随着企业影响力和企业风险认知水平增大，有助于增强冲击后企业信用担保系统的稳定性。企业风险偏好较小时，保证了“担保圈”内有效的流动性供给，但当企业风险偏好不断增强时，加剧了信用担保需求方的经营困境。(3)企业风险偏好对企业影响力、企业资信水平、企业风险认知水平发挥“强化效应”。企业资信水平与企业影响力具有“互为强化效应”。企业风险认知水平的“风险制约能力”强于企业资信水平的“风险强化能力”。企业风险认知水平与企业影响力对违约企业数量的影响发挥互为逆向效应且两者强度相当。

关键词: 企业行为偏好；企业间信用担保；信用担保网络；风险传染

Abstract: In the actual financing process, it is difficult for many firms to obtain all the funds necessary for their own development through the financial system. Firms often obtain gap funds through credit guarantee other than bank borrowing, firm bond or stock, thus forming a complex and close inter-firm network of guarantee circle. However, facing the instability of the market environment and the behavior preference of different firms, firms as the demander of credit guarantee may be inclined to venture capital, which increases the uncertainty of firm operation and the probability of credit default, resulting in frequent problems of guarantee circle. Therefore, in this context, an in-depth analysis of the formation and contagion of credit guarantee risk in guarantee circle will help to optimize the inter-firm relationship of credit guarantee, reduce the default risk of inter-firm credit guarantee and play a benign financing function of guarantee circle under the influence of firm behavior preference.

Key words: firm behavior preference; inter-firm credit guarantee; credit guarantee network; risk contagion

中图分类号:

F830

王磊, 李守伟, 陈庭强, 何建敏. 基于企业行为偏好的企业间信用担保网络与风险传染研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(2): 80-93.

WANG Lei, LI Shou-wei, CHEN Ting-qiang, HE Jian-min. Inter-firm Credit Guarantee Network and Risk Contagion Based on Enterprise Behavior Preference[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(2): 80-93.

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