关键词: 需求预测, 模块化, 应急物资, 预储调整

Abstract: The management of relief materials is an interesting research area of the relief management. However, most of existing researches relative to relief materials management focus on the state of inventory level of relief materials and the distribution and supplement of materials, but without respect to the modularity and timeliness of materials. That is, the existing researches maybe unserviceable for modular relief materials management, and cannot improve the value-in-use of materials. Therefore, in this paper, an alternative chance-constrained programming is proposed for the redistribution and supplement of relief materials which can be transformed as a linear programming, under the assumption that the distribution of the demand at each warehouse is known. The objective of the proposed model is minimize the cost of redistribution and supplement of relief materials, and the mainly constraint is guarantee the materials demand can be satisfied under a certain stated probability. Finally,the proposed method is applied to the prestore adjustment of 20 National relief material warehouses of China, and the results show that the proposed method can greatly reduced the cost of prestore adjustment under the same level of material support.

Key words: demand forecasting, modularization, relief materials, prestore adjustment