关键词: 模糊信息, 应急物资分配, 多周期, 多种类, 模糊数清晰化

Abstract: Scientific and efficient material allocation is the essential prerequisites for successful emergency response, and are the important factors that affecting the overall effectiveness of rescue and reducing losses in disaster areas. Due to the suddenness of disasters and the urgency of emergency rescue, combined with the impact of secondary disasters, it is often impossible to obtain relevant information accurately during the emergency rescue process, which increases the difficulty for emergency material allocation. One critical issue in such extreme situation is how to formulate a scientific and rational emergency material allocation plan to achieve multi-period effective supply of relief materials, which meets the realistic demand of multi-period allocation of emergency materials for large-scale disasters. In order to form a reasonable material allocation scheme, this paper proposes an optimal decision model for multi-period dynamic allocation of emergency materials based on the suddenness of disasters, the incompleteness of information acquisition and the urgency of emergency rescue. Firstly, the interval number is introduced to describe the fuzzy uncertainty of the supply and demand of emergency materials, and the triangular fuzzy number is introduced to describe the maximum amount of material transportation per period under the condition of limited road network capacity. Secondly, considering the dynamic changes of demand, supply and maximum transportation amount in different emergency periods, a dual-objective model for dynamic allocation of emergency materials is constructed by introducing delay coefficient, aiming at minimizing the total delay time and total system loss. Thirdly, by designing the deterministic transformation method of fuzzy numbers and the objective weighting fuzzy algorithm based on two-dimensional Euclidean distance, the proposed model are solved. A case study based on the Yushu earthquake is carried out to verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can form a multi-period optimal material allocation scheme based on effectively trade-off the delay time and system loss. Attaching importance to time preference coefficient may increase the total system loss, which indicates that the single consideration of time or loss preference coefficient is one-sided. The decision makers should grasp the "degree" of choice and play the mutual promotion role of their combination. Material allocation scheme is based on the preference of decision makers, and considers the vulnerability, importance, urgency of demand at different affected locations in each period, as well as the importance and timeliness of various emergency materials, which is conducive to improving the flexibility and practical applicability of multi-period decision-making.

Key words: fuzzy information, emergency material allocation, multi-period, multiple categories, fuzzy number conversion