Abstract: In this paper,a novel approach on relationship test based on improved Akaike information criterion is derivedand examined to be especially suitable for small samples.In the model,not only the AICC criterion is generated fromthe AR case to the ARMA case,but also all the insignificant variabbles in the forecasting equations are removed.Allthese make the forecasting model both optimal and simple.By the macroeconomic analysis since China’s reform,theapproach is verified.

Key words: AICC criterion, ARMA model, Relationship, Macroeconomic analysis