Abstract:

Recently， under the impact of the Sino-US trade turbulence and the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic disease （COVID-19）， China’s macroeconomic economy is still facing relatively larger challenges. Operational and liquidity risks in both transnational and domestic supply chains have continued to increase， and firm debt default risks have become increasingly significant. Relationship-specific investment （RSI）， as one of the important characteristics of the supply chain， features high exclusivity， a relatively large scale， and a long investment cycle. RSI has both a positive and negative impact on supply chain firms and thus increases the uncertainties in their debt default risk. Therefore， it has become an important issue in the field of supply-chain risk management to explore the influence of RSI on the debt default risk of supply chain firms.Under the framework of structural analysis of credit risk， why firm profit flows could be used to measure firm debt default risk based on the relationship between firm profit and total asset value is discussed. Then， the theoretical analysis is carried out to explore how the RSI influences the debt default risk of firms by affecting firm profit， return volatility， and cash flow risk. In addition， the relevant mechanisms are also tested through mathematical demonstration. Finally， the nonlinear panel regression model is constructed， and the sample data of listed manufacturing companies in China’s A-Share stock market from 2012 to 2021 is used to conduct empirical analysis. It tests the total effect， the indirect effect， and the mediating effect of RSI on supply chain firms’ debt default risk.The result shows that as RSI increases， both firm profit and return volatility present inverted U-shaped changes， while cash flow risk demonstrates U-shaped changes. Based on the structural analysis approach， a higher firm’s profitability helps decrease the firm’s debt default risk， while return volatility and cash flow risk increase the firm’s debt default risk. Under the combined influence of these three factors， the firm default risk shows U-type changes. Furthermore， the moderating effects of the firm’s role in the supply chain and of the external contract environment are studied. The result shows RSI has a significant non-linear effect on the default risk of parts-and-components supplying firms. However， it has almost no impact on product manufacturing firms. Meanwhile， it is also found that， in a good contractual environment， RSI could lead to more profits and less cash flow risk， thus improving firm credit quality more obviously. It is because a good contractual environment helps decrease customer opportunism and strengthen the stability of the supply chain. In a worse contractual environment， the positive return effect of the RSI may be offset by the negative risk effect， and thus it only plays a limited role in improving firm credit quality.The supply chain firms’ debt default risk is studied from the perspective of relationship-specific investment. It expands the framework for analyzing the impacts of supply chain characteristics on firm default risk. The application of the credit risk structural analysis method in empirical research is innovated by evaluating credit risk based on the profit flows and coordination mechanisms of the supply chain. It extends the traditional structural models of credit risk that focus only on the change in a firm’s asset value. This structural approach could be used to access the effects of other important supply chain characteristics， such as supplier/customer concentration and trade credit， on firms’ creditworthiness. Additionally， it is practically valuable in helping financial institutions， such as banks， and other investors evaluate a firm’s RSI decision more comprehensively and manage and control the firm’s default risk more accurately.

Key words: relationship specific investment, default risk, supply chain, contractual environment