千里之堤溃于蚁穴：商业银行内部欺诈风险形成机理的随机实验研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0188

Abstract

Abstract:

Human-induced operational risk is the operational risk directly caused by employees' misbehavior. It is the type of operational risk with the highest frequency and loss intensity in commercial banks. According to the difference in the initiative of misbehavior， the human-induced operational risk can be subdivided into human error risk and internal fraud risk. The nature and impact of internal fraud risk caused by employees’willful misbehavior are more serious，such as defrauding and embezzling property， or violating laws， regulatory rules， or internal systems.Researches pointed out that the key to optimizing operational risk measurement models and improving risk management effectiveness lies in the mastery of risk drivers. Therefore， it focuses on the formation mechanism of internal fraud risk in this paper， in order to provide theoretical support and basis for operational risk management. At present， there are few studies on the formation mechanism of internal fraud risk in the banking industry， but experimental evidence and theoretical explanations have been provided from the perspectives of institutional culture and colleague behavior. In addition， numerous studies on unethical decision-making provide evidence on individual psychological characteristics. Based on integrating the above characteristic factors， the scenario characteristic factor of internal fraud is introduced， and a systematic framework of the formation mechanism of internal fraud risk among employees in the banking industry is constructed.In this research， a randomized controlled trial is used to test this theoretical framework. Taking 244 employees of a commercial bank as effective samples， a random experiment in a completely unsupervised daily environment is carried out. The participants were randomly divided into three groups according to different decision-making scenarios to intervene with scenario characteristic.On this basis， mature scale tools are used to measure the personal psychological characteristics of employees and situational characteristics in the decision-making process， and a coin toss game is used to observe theinstitutional ethical culture. In addition， the actual misbehavior data of the bank's employees before and after the experiment are obtained based on the research project in cooperation with the bank.The research shows that scenario characteristic has a significant impact on the decision-making results and decision-making process of bank employees' internal fraud： the weaker the pressure employees feel in the scenario， the stronger the fraud intention； in different moral intensity scenarios， the impact of personal psychological characteristics and organizational environmental characteristics is different. The positive impact of personal psychological characteristics is more significant in low-intensity scenarios， and the inhibitory effect of organizational environmental characteristics， especially department culture， and the same group infection of colleague misbehavior are more significant in high-intensity situations.This research further enriches the theoretical research on the formation mechanism of operational risk， especially human-induced operational risk and provides a behavioral motivation explanation for the loss distribution characteristics of "low risk and high frequency" of operational risk in banking industry. In addition， the research conclusions of this paper provide a theoretical and empirical basis for commercial banks to implement key risk indicator tools， which will help commercial banks optimize operational risk measurement models and improve dynamic control technology. Moreover， management inspiration is provided for commercial banks to optimize the dynamic prevention and control mechanism of human-induced operational risk.

Key words: human-induced operational risk, internal fraud risk, misbehavior, scenario characteristic, randomized controlled trial

CLC Number:

F832
C934

Haohua Li,Xindan Li,Binqing Xiao. The Embankment of a Thousand Miles Collapses in the Ant's Nest:An Experimental Study on the Formation Mechanism of Internal Fraud Risk in the Banking Industry[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(11): 25-36.

Figures/Tables 8

变量	被解释变量：IFB Index
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
MI	-1.591^***	-1.575^***	-1.687^***	-4.710^*
MI	(-8.38)	(-5.73)	(-5.38)	(-1.72)
AFB		1.873^**	1.570^*	1.579^*
AFB		(2.08)	(1.65)	(1.69)
PBC		-0.038	0.032	-0.005
PBC		(-0.22)	(0.16)	(-0.03)
MO		-0.260	-0.236	-0.207
MO		(-1.50)	(-1.27)	(-1.07)
DC		-5.096^***	-6.037^***	-5.993^***
DC		(-4.60)	(-4.54)	(-4.44)
CFB		0.279^*	0.313	0.302
CFB		(1.68)	(1.61)	(1.53)
MD			-0.036^**	-0.091
MD			(-2.13)	(-0.87)
SIT			-0.106	-0.087
SIT			(-0.24)	(-0.19)
SEX			-0.943^**	-3.779
SEX			(-1.97)	(-1.27)
AGE			-0.055	-0.293
AGE			(-1.59)	(-1.42)
EDU			-2.145^***	-5.493
EDU			(-2.66)	(-1.22)
TEC			-0.286	-0.271
TEC			(-0.54)	(-0.48)
MD×MI				0.009
MD×MI				(0.50)
SEX×MI				0.456
SEX×MI				(0.95)
AGE×MI				0.038
AGE×MI				(1.16)
EDU×MI				0.554
EDU×MI				(0.76)
截距项	是	是	是	是
观测数	244	244	244	244
似然比检验	$X 2$ (1)=119.52 p=0.000	$X 2$ (6)=161.05 p=0.000	$X 2$ (12)=178.44 p=0.000	$X 2$ (16)=180.58 p=0.000
PseudoR²	0.387	0.522	0.578	0.585

变量	被解释变量：IFB Index
变量	子样本1：情境一和情境二	子样本2：情境一和情境三
AFB	2.760^*	3.192^**
AFB	(1.76)	(2.22)
PBC	0.154	0.235
PBC	(0.51)	(0.78)
MO	-1.399^***	-1.444^***
MO	(-3.82)	(-3.91)
DC	-0.762	0.056
DC	(-0.30)	(0.02)
CFB	-0.195	-0.215
CFB	(-0.43)	(-0.46)
CASE₂×AFB	-1.724
CASE₂×AFB	(-0.73)
CASE₂×PBC	0.416
CASE₂×PBC	(1.01)
CASE₂×MO	0.522
CASE₂×MO	(1.16)
CASE₂×DC	-6.505^*
CASE₂×DC	(-1.84)
CASE₂×CFB	0.676
CASE₂×CFB	(1.22)
CASE₂	1.874
CASE₂	(0.40)
CASE₃×AFB		-0.438
CASE₃×AFB		(-0.21)
CASE₃×PBC		1.315**
CASE₃×PBC		(2.21)
CASE₃×MO		1.774^***
CASE₃×MO		(3.30)
CASE₃×DC		-9.494^**
CASE₃×DC		(-2.17)
CASE₃×CFB		1.493^**
CASE₃×CFB		(2.17)
CASE₃		-8.355
CASE₃		(-1.51)
控制变量	是	是
截距项	是	是
观测数	163	164
似然比检验	$X 2$ (17)=116.061 p=0.000	$X 2$ (17)=129.44 p=0.000
PseudoR²	0.561	0.619

变量	被解释变量：IFB Index
变量	情境一	情境二	情境三	Difference 1 vs 2	Difference 1 vs 3
AFB	4.006^**	1.566	2.546	-2.441	-1.461
AFB	(2.08)	(0.87)	(1.61)	-2.441	-1.461
PBC	0.334	0.515	1.657^***	0.181	1.323^**
PBC	(0.90)	(1.57)	(2.76)	0.181	1.323^**
MO	-1.785^***	-0.928^***	0.336	0.857	2.122^**
MO	(-3.40)	(-3.20)	(0.88)	0.857	2.122^**
DC	-0.195	-7.284^***	-10.516^**	-7.088^*	-10.320^**
DC	(-0.06)	(-2.87)	(-2.54)	-7.088^*	-10.320^**
CFB	-0.392	0.617	1.440^***	1.009^*	1.832^**
CFB	(-0.66)	(1.59)	(2.72)	1.009^*	1.832^**
控制变量	是	是	是
截距项	是	是	是
观测数	83	80	81
似然比检验	$X 2$ (11)=74.76 p=0.000	$X 2$ (11)=48.39 p=0.000	$X 2$ (11)=62.01 p=0.000
PseudoR²	0.696	0.487	0.610

变量	Logit回归		OLS回归
变量	FB_Yes	FB_High	FB
IFB Index	0.746^**	0.900^***	0.579^***
IFB Index	(2.29)	(2.98)	(3.03)
CFB	0.780^***	0.787^***	0.530^***
CFB	(3.44)	(3.01)	(4.39)
∆ Asset	0.226	0.402	0.111
∆ Asset	(0.38)	(0.85)	(0.36)
∆ EVA	-0.038	0.053	-0.021
∆ EVA	(-0.29)	(0.49)	(-0.29)
∆ GDP	-1.263	-12.895	-7.711
∆ GDP	(-0.06)	(-0.72)	(-0.68)
∆ Consume	0.332	-0.166	0.147
∆ Consume	(1.36)	(-0.72)	(0.97)
控制变量	是	是	是
截距项	是	是	是
观测数	244	244	244
似然比检验	$X 2$ (11)=31.56 p=0.001	$X 2$ (11)=28.55 p=0.003	$F$ =3.62 p=0.000
Pseudo/Adj. R²	0.113	0.085	0.106

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变量名称	变量符号	度量量表
道德强度	MI	李克特七分制双题量表^[34]
欺诈行为意图	IFB	李克特七分制单题量表^[31]
欺诈行为态度	AFB	二元单题量表^[31]
感知行为控制	PBC	李克特七分制多题量表^[31]
道德责任	MO	李克特七分制单题量表^[43]
道德发展阶段	MD	确定性问题测试(DIT)^[35]

分组	统计量	道德发展阶段 MD	岗位	性别	年龄	学历	职业技术资格	道德强度
分组	统计量	道德发展阶段 MD	SIT	SEX	AGE	EDU	TEC	MI
全样本 N=244	Mean	41.69	1.35	0.49	37.39	1.78	0.41	6.18
	Std.Dev.	14.43	0.63	0.50	9.96	0.46	0.49	1.15
	Min	13.33	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	3.00
	Max	53.33	3.00	1.00	59.00	3.00	1.00	7.00
情境一 N=83	Mean	42.33	1.36	0.49	35.99	1.86	0.33	5.90
	Std.Dev.	14.92	0.69	0.50	9.17	0.45	0.47	1.28
	Min	13.33	1.00	0.00	23.00	1.00	0.00	3.00
	Max	53.33	3.00	1.00	55.00	3.00	1.00	7.00
情境二 N=80	Mean	42.18	1.33	0.55	37.99	1.74	0.49	6.25
	Std.Dev.	13.09	0.59	0.50	9.79	0.47	0.50	1.11
	Min	13.33	1.00	0.00	23.00	2.00	0.00	3.50
	Max	53.33	2.00	1.00	59.00	2.00	1.00	7.00
情境三 N=81	Mean	40.57	1.37	0.43	38.25	1.74	0.42	6.40
	Std.Dev.	15.27	0.62	0.50	10.83	0.47	0.50	0.99
	Min	13.33	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	4.00
	Max	53.33	3.00	1.00	58.00	3.00	1.00	7.00
分布特征检验P值		0.425	0.837	0.328	0.166	0.191	0.107	0.024^**
均值检验P值		0.709	0.882	0.330	0.262	0.170	0.105	0.022^**

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The Embankment of a Thousand Miles Collapses in the Ant's Nest:An Experimental Study on the Formation Mechanism of Internal Fraud Risk in the Banking Industry

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