Abstract: Against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global industrial landscape and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, global supply chains are undergoing rapid restructuring. Based on the real-world scenarios faced by large cross-border e-commerce platforms, this paper constructs a game-theoretic model of cross-border supply chains in which retailers procure products from offshore manufacturers in two different countries. It analyzes the impact of cost fluctuations and tariff shocks on competition between the two offshore manufacturers and explores optimal pricing strategies for retailers. The study indicates that, under competition from dual-offshore manufacturers, rising costs and tariffs reduce retailers’ markups and profit levels, decrease total market demand, and trigger a redistribution of demand and profits among manufacturers. Furthermore, manufacturers from different countries exhibit varying sensitivities to cost and tariff shocks; Retailers can maximize profits by implementing differentiated markup strategies, with manufacturers from low-cost, low-tariff countries tending toward the same markup strategy, while those from high-cost, high-tariff countries tend toward a uniform retail price strategy; Both the differential markup strategy and the uniform retail pricing strategy optimize profit distribution among manufacturers and reduce the sensitivity of supply chain members to cost and tariff shocks.

Key words: Dual-offshore manufacturer competition, Cross-border supply chain, Supply chain restructuring, Retailer-led, Pricing strategy