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主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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中国管理科学

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异质性政策组合对新能源汽车产业发展的影响效应分析

周德群, 程雪熠, 王群伟, 虞先玉   

  1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 210016
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-30 修回日期:2024-10-01 接受日期:2024-10-05
  • 通讯作者: 虞先玉
  • 基金资助:
    可再生能源发展的驱动机理及路径选择(71834003); 中国减排交易政策效应仿真分析(22FGLB029); “禀赋-需求”错位下新型电力系统“源网荷储”协同调度研究(72274094); 异构时空数据驱动的多粒度感知决策方法及其在线绿色消费推荐应用(72371129)

Analysis of the effect of heterogeneous policy combinations on the development of new energy vehicle industry

DeQun ZHOU   

  1. , 210016,
  • Received:2024-05-30 Revised:2024-10-01 Accepted:2024-10-05

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摘要： 发展新能源汽车产业是保护环境和实现“双碳”目标的重要途经之一，国家相继从作用对象、作用机制等多维度出台财政补贴、双积分、车辆购置税减免和配套设施建设等异质性政策，支撑新能源汽车产业的健康发展。针对多维异质性政策组合实现政策效应最大化的焦点问题，本研究构建了由全排列政策组合情景分析、三方主体演化博弈分析、系统动力学仿真分析和交互式敏感分析组成的四层分析方法框架，分析财政补贴、双积分、车辆购置税减免和配套设施建设等异质性政策全排列组合对新能源汽车产业发展的影响效应。研究发现：（1）仅作用于生产或消费某一端的两政策联合实施时，只能起到对该生产端或该消费端的促进推动作用，互补性的多元化政策组合产生更显著的政策效应；（2）非补贴型政策可以逐渐替代补贴型政策，在补贴型政策退坡的情况下非补贴型政策也能发挥引导新能源汽车产业发展的作用；（3）消费端新能源汽车购买激励政策能够促进新能源汽车生产端的产能提升；（4）当新能源汽车产业发展进入成熟期后，适当弹性的政策组合仍然有助于推动新能源汽车产业的健康发展。

关键词: 异质性政策组合, 新能源汽车产业发展, 演化博弈, 系统动力学, 政策影响效应

Abstract: The development of new energy vehicle industry is one of the important ways to protect the environment and achieve the goal of "double carbon", and the state has successively introduced heterogeneous policies, such as financial subsidies, double points, vehicle purchase tax exemption, and the construction of ancillary facilities, from the perspective of the target and the mechanism of the action, to support the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry. Aiming at the focus of maximizing the policy effect of multi-dimensional heterogeneous policy combinations, this study constructs a four-layer analytical methodological framework consisting of scenario analysis of full-arrangement policy combinations, evolutionary game analysis of tripartite subjects, system dynamics simulation analysis and interactive sensitivity analysis to analyze the effects of full-arrangement combinations of heterogeneous policies such as financial subsidies, double points, vehicle purchase tax exemption and ancillary facilities on the development of the new energy automobile industry. The study finds that: (1) the joint implementation of two policies that only act on one end of production or consumption can only play a role in promoting the production end or the consumption end, and complementary diversified policy combinations produce more significant policy effects; (2) non-subsidised policies can gradually replace subsidised policies, and non-subsidised policies can play a role in guiding the development of the new energy automobile industry in the event of the subsidised policy regression; (3) New energy vehicle purchase incentives on the consumer side can promote the production capacity of new energy vehicles; (4) When the development of the new energy vehicle industry enters a mature period, an appropriately resilient policy mix can still help promote the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry.

Key words: heterogeneous policy mix, new energy vehicle industry development, evolutionary game, system dynamics, policy effect