关键词: 消费者信心, 企业家信心, 货币政策, 经济增长率, TVP-VAR模型

Abstract: Entrepreneurial confidence and consumer confidence play an important role in macroeconomic development, and entrepreneurial confidence and consumer confidence are often overlooked in traditional monetary policy literature. At the same time, due to the different changes of China's macro-economy, in order to study the times-varying characteristics of China's macroeconomic fluctuations, the data are selected from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017 and the TVP-VAR model is adopted, which can reflect the varying characteristics, to analyze the relationship between entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence and monetary policy, the influence of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence and monetary policy on inflation rate and economic growth rate respectively. In particular, the summary is as follows.
Method:In order to examine the time-varying characteristics of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, monetary policy and Chinese macroeconomic fluctuation, TVP-VAR model is used to estimate. The complete estimate equation is as follows:
y_t=X_tβ_t+A_t^-1Σ_tε_t
Where, y_t={R_t,M2_t,QX_t,XX_t,CPI_t,GDP_t},let a_t=(a_21,t,a_31,t,a_32,t,a_41,t,…,a_,kk-1t)',which is the column vector formed by the non-zero and one elements in the lower triangle, meanwhile, let h_t=(h_1t,…,h_kt)',h_jt=logσ_jt²,j=1,…,k,t=s+1,…,n.
Data:Six variables of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, interest rate, money growth rate, economic growth rate and inflation rate are chosen to construct TVP-VAR model. Among them, the entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence respectively with QX and XX, as the 7th interbank borrowing rate data can well reflect the supply and demand of short-term funds, so it is used to express interest rate R; M2 expresses the monthly growth rate of the generalized currency by the rate of currency growth; The CPI is used to represent the inflation rate, and the growth rate of GDP is represented by the growth rate of GDP. In order to eliminate the effect of seasonal trend, this paper makes census X-12 seasonal adjustment is made to all the data. All data is from wind database.
Results:(1) The increase of entrepreneurs' confidence and consumer confidence has expanded domestic demand and promoted the development of macroeconomic by influencing the intermediary variables of monetary policy. (2) The public will anticipate the future through the adjustment of monetary policy, therefore, the adjustment of monetary policy can affect the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumer confidence, and thus have an impact on domestic demand. (3) From a time-variant perspective, the unit positive impact of entrepreneurial confidence in the entire sample range will promote economic growth; The increase in the growth rate of money in the short term to promote economic growth, in the long run will hinder economic growth, consumer confidence, interest rates and economic growth rate in the short-term reverse changes in the relationship, In the long-term positive changes in the relationship.
Contribution:The application of TVP-VAR model provides a new research idea for the research of related problems, meanwhile, the research content of this paper is very important for the effective implementation of monetary policy, the prevention of excessive inflation and the promotion of high-quality economic growth.

Key words: consumer confidence, entrepreneurial confidence, monetary policy, economic growth rate, TVP-VAR model