关键链项目实时滚动监控方法研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高项目的按时完工率，研究了一种实时滚动的动态缓冲监控方法。新方法充分考虑了项目不确定性的变化以及各活动之间的联系，基于活动的风险暴露度对缓冲总量进行分配，并根据缓冲量的实际消耗情况，将各监控点的缓冲监控剩余量按照活动风险权重因子进行实时滚动和再分配，对用于监控的缓冲量和监控基准点进行实时动态调整。仿真实验表明，该方法可以减少错误预警的产生和因此耗费的额外成本和时间，极大地提高项目的完工概率。

关键词: 关键链项目管理, 缓冲管理, 实时滚动, 动态监控, 不确定性

Abstract: It is well accepted that buffer management holds great significance to critical chain project management. As one of the core aspects of buffer management, buffer monitoring plays an important role in ensuringthe on-time delivery and providing the project with sufficient protection.The current buffer monitoring methods do not adequately account for the risk characteristics of the project phase and the dynamic association between activities.To solve this defect, a real-time rolling monitoring and control method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method takes into account the uncertainty of the project as well as the relationship between the various activities, and allocates project buffer based on the risk exposure of activities.The calculation of risk exposure index based on uncertainty and the initial buffer allocation on this basis are studied. Then the residual buffer is reallocated according to thedynamicrisk weighting factor of activities based on the rolling distribution monitoring model, and two monitoring thresholds are set andadjusted dynamically according to actual buffer consumption during project execution. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation experiment is carried out to compare the proposed method with the current methods.The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can effectively reduce wrong warnings and the extra cost and time caused by the wrong warnings, signifying that it can greatly improve the on-time completion of the project.

Key words: critical chain project management, buffer management, real-time rolling, dynamic monitoring, uncertainties

中图分类号:

F272

张俊光, 万丹. 关键链项目实时滚动监控方法研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(4): 171-179.

ZHANG Jun-guang, WAN Dan. Dynamic Real-time Monitoring and Control of the Critical Chain Project[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(4): 171-179.

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