在线影评和在线短评对票房收入影响的比较研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.10.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在线评论是近几年学者十分关注的问题，随着信息载体的丰富，在线评论的形式也越来越多样化，现今研究在线评论数据来源主要有第三方专业评论和非专业评论两大类，但并未有研究对比过两类评论对之间的差异。本文将在线电影评论进一步区分为较长且专业的影评和较短且非专业的短评，首先结合前人研究成果构建了电影在线评论对票房影响的综合模型，然后从豆瓣电影爬取了不同电影的在线评论，利用eviews7.0在面板数据的环境下对比分析了影评与短评对票房收入的影响。研究发现，第一，影评数量对票房收入无影响，而短评数量对票房收入的影响呈倒U形变化；第二，影评极端性对票房收入的影响持续至第三周，而短评极端性对票房收入影响持续至第五周；第三，无论是数量还是极端性，短评在每周的回归结果中均比影评的影响大。结论表明，在线电影评论中起到更重要作用的评论形式为短评。通过本文研究，可以丰富在线评论对销量影响的研究，并能够给在线电影评论网站以及电影出品方提供有针对的可行性营销建议。

关键词: 在线评论, 评论数量, 评论极端性, 票房收入

Abstract: Online reviews have been hot issues of researches in recent years. With the wealth of information carrier, the form of online reviews is more and more diversified. Nowadays the data source of research on online reviews mainly has two types:third-party product reviews and non-professional comment. However, there is little study about comparing the differences between two types of online reviews. In this article, the online movie review is divided into long review and short comment. Firstly, based on the review of literature, a conceptual framework is proposed to examine the impact of movie reviews on box-office. Then the online reviews data is collected from Douban movie Web site. The effects of review and comment on box-office incomes based on panel data are compared. The results show that review volume has no significant impact on box-office. Furthermore,the effect of comment volume weakened by week after reaching a peak. Besides,the influence of review valence variance doesnit exist until third week, but the comment valence variance continues to fifth week. Whether in volume or valence variance, comment has great influence on sales than review. The result indicates that the comment playas more important role in online movie reviews. This study is not only helyful for the further research of the impact of reviews on sales, but also optimizethes marketing strategies for movie producer and movie review site.

Key words: online reviews, volume, extremity, box-office

中图分类号:

石文华, 钟碧园, 张绮. 在线影评和在线短评对票房收入影响的比较研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(10): 162-170.

SHI Wen-hua, ZHONG Bi-yuan, ZHANG Qi. Comparing the Effects of Online Reviews and Online Comments on Box-office Incomes[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(10): 162-170.

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