电影预告片在线投放对票房的影响——基于文本情感分析方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.10.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预告片是电影上映之前的一种营销方式。过去，预告片主要通过影院或者电视平台进行传播，现在，预告片更多被投放在网络视频播放平台上。本文研究预告片的在线投放策略对预告片关注数量和预告片评论情感的影响，以及预告片关注数量和预告片评论情感对影片票房的影响。基于纯暴露理论、消费者参与理论提出了研究假设，从视频网站时光网（www.mtime.com）和电影数据库网站艺恩网（www.entgroup.cn）采集了研究数据，对预告片评论文本进行了文本情感分析，建立模型并对模型参数进行了估计。研究结果表明：（1）预告片的投放时间、数量、长度对预告片关注数量有显著作用。提前投放和密集投放会提高预告片的营销效果。（2）预告片关注数量和预告片评论情感对影片票房有显著作用。关注数量越多，积极情感词汇越多，票房越高。（3）影片上映之前，预告片评论中的"乐"、"哀"词频对票房有显著作用。影片上映期间，预告片评论中的"好"、"恶"词频对影片票房有显著作用。研究结论可以为电影营销策略制定和营销资源分配提供支持。

关键词: 电影预告片, 在线投放, 关注, 情感, 票房

Abstract: Trailers are the most widely used method of movie advertising, with the purpose of building consumer awareness and expectations before the release of the movie. In the past, movie trailers were shown at the cinema or on television. Nowadays, trailers appear on the video websites. The effects of online pre-launch movie trailers include two periods:before the release of the movie and after the release of the movie. In the paper, the effects of movie trailers on the viewers' awareness and preference and the effects of the viewers' awareness and preference on the movies' box office revenue are studied. Based on the theories of pure exposure and consumer engagement, the research hypothesis is put forward. Data is collected from mtime.com(www.mtime.com) and entgroup.com(www.entgroup.cn) and text sentiment analysis methods are used to extract the sentiment words from the viewer comments of the movie trailers. A hurdle model is established to examine the effects of movie trailers on the viewers' awareness and preference. A cross section data model and a panel data model are established to examine the effects of the viewers' awareness and preference on the openingweek box office revenue and the weekly box office revenue. The results show that:(1) the release time, the number and the length of movie trailers have effects on the number of the viewer comments.(2) The number of viewer comments and the frequencies of sentiment words have effects on the box office revenue.(3)Before the release of the movie, the frequencies of the words about "joy" and "sadness" have effects on the box office revenue. After the release of the movie, the frequencies of the words about "like" and "dislike" have effects on the box office revenue. The conclusions of the study can provide support for movie marketing strategy development and marketing resource allocation.

Key words: movie trailers, online pre-launch, awareness, sentiment, box office revenue

中图分类号:

F713.36

孙春华, 刘业政. 电影预告片在线投放对票房的影响——基于文本情感分析方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(10): 151-161.

SUN Chun-hua, LIU Ye-zheng. The Effects of Online Pre-launch Movie Trailers on the Box Office Revenue——Based on Text Sentiment Analysis Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(10): 151-161.

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