关键词: 中国, 水资源, Brown诘难

Abstract: In 1994, World Watch, an American famous magazine publishe an article named "Who Will Feed China?" written by Lester R. Brown. In the paper Brown indicated that the irrigation land shortages will lead China forward so large a grain deficit that it can’t afford itself and need to import so many grains from the international market. In 1998, Brown issue another article "China’s Water Shortaes Could shake World Food Security". In article, Brown emphased that the most serious thing about Chinese grain deficit is, instead of land shortage, the shortages of irrigation water. With model analysis on inverse problem of linear programming problem, This paper gave a discussion about water problem of China, the result to that Chinese available water supply is not enough to implement the development the development target by 2000 but is not by 2010 and 2030, if we only take the two measures which are both increasing water use efficiency and improving wate supply. To solve the problem, every practical measure of water adding should be carried out and at the same time the industrial system need to be evolution to the level of Beijing’s at 1995. So that, China is able overcome water bottleneck in development.

Key words: China, water resources, Brown problem