ICT服务业资本存量及其产出弹性估算研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.019

中国管理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 189-199.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.019

ICT服务业资本存量及其产出弹性估算研究

程名望, 张家平

同济大学经济与管理学院, 上海 200092

收稿日期:2018-03-20 修回日期:2018-08-09 出版日期:2019-11-20 发布日期:2019-11-28
通讯作者: 张家平(1992-),男(汉族),陕西安康人,同济大学经济与管理学院,博士研究生,研究方向:数字经济,E-mail:Zhangjp0626@tongji.edu.cn. E-mail:Zhangjp0626@tongji.edu.cn
基金资助:
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目（15JZD026）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（71873095，71903151）；同济大学研究生国际交流基金资助项目（201902028）

Study on the Estimation of ICT Service Industry Capital Stock and It's Output Elasticity

CHENG Ming-wang, ZHANG Jia-ping

School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Received:2018-03-20 Revised:2018-08-09 Online:2019-11-20 Published:2019-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 21世纪以来，ICT发展已经深刻地影响着中国经济社会。为检验中国ICT资本是否存在"生产率悖论"，本文运用PIM系统估算了2003-2016年期间全国层面和地区层面ICT服务业和非ICT服务业资本存量及其产出弹性。研究发现，中国ICT服务业存在明显的"投资不足"，但在2012年以后有所缓和；ICT服务业资本存量在各地区表现非均衡分布，但其差距趋于收敛；ICT服务业资本对中国经济增长具有显著的促进作用，产出弹性在0.1605-0.1705之间；从时间趋势来看，考察期间内ICT服务业资本对中国经济增长的影响效果不断增强，从区域差异来看，ICT服务业资本产出弹性在东、中和西部呈依次递减趋势。本文研究证实中国ICT资本不存在"生产率悖论"。

关键词: 数字中国, ICT服务业, 资本存量, 产出弹性, 生产率悖论

Abstract: Since the 21st century,the development of ICT has deeply influenced China's economy and society. To test whether there is a "productivity paradox" for China's ICT capital, the PIM is used to estimate the capital stock and output elasticity of ICT service industry and non-ICT service industry at boththe national and regional levels from 2003 to 2016. The results show that China's ICT service industry existed obvious "underinvestment",but later eased since 2012. The capital stock of ICT service industry showed unbalanced distribution among different regions,but the gap between the capital stock of ICT service industry among different regions tended to converge. Investment in ICT service industry can significantly promote economic growth, and the output elasticity for ICT service capital was between 0.1605 and 0.1705. From the perspective of time trend,the impact of ICT service industry capital on economic growth was continuously enhanced during the investigation period. From the perspective of regional differences, the output elasticity of ICT service industry capital decreasedfrom the east, middle and west in sequence. It is further confirmed that there is no "productivity paradox" for China's ICTaradox

Key words: digital China, ICT service industry, capital stock, output elasticity, productivity paradox

中图分类号:

程名望, 张家平. ICT服务业资本存量及其产出弹性估算研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(11): 189-199.

CHENG Ming-wang, ZHANG Jia-ping. Study on the Estimation of ICT Service Industry Capital Stock and It's Output Elasticity[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(11): 189-199.

参考文献

[1] 程名望,张家平. 互联网普及与城乡收入差距:理论与实证[J]. 中国农村经济,2019,(2):19-41.
[2] 詹宇波,王梦韬,王晓萍. 中国信息通信技术制造业资本存量度量:1995-2010[J]. 世界经济文汇,2014,(4):62-74.
[3] Brynjolfsson E. The productivity paradox of information technology[J]. Communications of ACM,1993,36(12):67-77.
[4] Brynjolfsson E,Hitt L. Paradox lost? Firm-level evidence on the returns to information systems spending[J]. Management Science,1996,42(4):541-558.
[5] Amendola M,Gaffard J L,Saraceno F. Technical progress, accumulation and financial constraints:Is the productivity paradox really a paradox?[J]. Structural Change & Economic Dynamics, 2005, 16(2):243-261.
[6] Martínez D,Rodríguez J,Torres J L. The productivity paradox and the new economy:The Spanish case[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008,30(4):1569-1586.
[7] Oulton N. ICT and productivity growth in the United Kingdom[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2002,18(3):363-379.
[8] Ceccobelli M,Gitto S,Mancuso P. ICT capital and labour productivity growth:A non-parametric analysis of 14 OECD countries[J]. Telecommunications Policy,2012,36(4):282-292
[9] Najarzadeh R,Rahimzadeh F,Reed M. Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling,2014,36(6):986-993.
[10] Edquist H,Henrekson M. Do R&D and ICT affect total factor productivity growth differently?[J]. Telecommunications Policy,2017,41(2):106-119.
[11] Dewan S, Kraemer K L. Information technology and productivity:Evidence from country-level data[J]. Mangerment Science,2000,46(4):548-562.
[12] Heshmati A,Yang W. Contribution of ICT to the Chinese economic growth[R]. Ratio Working Papers,2006.
[13] 施莉,胡培. 信息技术对中国TFP增长影响估算:1980-2003[J]. 预测, 2008, 27(3):1-7.
[14] 徐瑾. 地区信息化对经济增长的影响分析[J].统计研究,2010,27(5):74-80.
[15] 孙琳琳,郑海涛,任若恩. 信息化对中国经济增长的贡献:行业面板数据的经验证据[J]. 世界经济,2012,(2):3-25.
[16] 蔡跃洲,张钧南. 信息通信技术对中国经济增长的替代效应与渗透效应[J]. 经济研究,2015,(12):100-114.
[17] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏. 中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J]. 经济研究,2004,(10):35-44.
[18] 单豪杰. 中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(10):17-31.
[19] 田友春. 中国分行业资本存量估算:1990-2014年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2016,(6):3-21.
[20] Schreyer P. The Contribution of information and communication technology to output growth:A study of the G7 countries[R]. OECD Science Technology & Industry Working Papers,2000.
[21] 徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元. 中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J]. 统计研究, 2007, 24(5):6-13.
[22] 张健华,王鹏. 中国全要素生产率:基于分省份资本折旧率的再估计[J]. 管理世界,2012,(10):18-30.
[23] 贾润崧,张四灿. 中国省际资本存量与资本回报率[J]. 统计研究,2014,31(11):35-42.
[24] 徐淑丹.中国城市的资本存量估算和技术进步率:1992-2014年[J].管理世界,2017,(1):17-29.
[25] Diewert W E,Wykoff F C. Depreciation, deterioration and obsolescence when there is embodied or disembodied technical change[R]. Economics Working Papers,2006.
[26] 陈昌兵. 可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算[J].经济研究,2014,(12):72-85.
[27] 赵杰,文启湘,刘湖. 省际教育行业资本存量及其时空特征研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2018,(11):39-44.
[28] 詹宇波,王晓萍. ICT产业资本存量的度量及其增长效应-一个文献综述[J]. 世界经济文汇, 2012,(2):74-88.
[29] 金戈. 中国基础设施资本存量估算[J]. 经济研究,2012,(4):4-14
[30] 金戈. 中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算[J]. 经济研究,2016,(5):41-56.
[31] 范德成,杜明月. 高端装备制造业技术创新资源配置效率及影响因素研究-基于两阶段StoNED和Tobit模型的实证分析[J]. 中国管理科学,2018,26(1):13-24.
[32] 刘湖,于跃,张家平.教育消费结构、收入差距与经济增长[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2019,(3):93-104.
[33] 陈晔婷,朱锐,宋志刚,等. 金融改革对全要素生产率的影响研究-基于五个国家级金融改革试验区的经验数据[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018,26(9):19-28.
[34] 张家平,程名望,潘烜. 信息化、居民消费与中国经济增长质量[J]. 经济经纬,2018,35(3):137-143.
[35] 程名望,张家平. 新时代背景下互联网发展与城乡居民消费差距[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2019,(7):22-41.

ICT服务业资本存量及其产出弹性估算研究

Study on the Estimation of ICT Service Industry Capital Stock and It's Output Elasticity

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 1

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 10