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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2010, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (5): 137-144.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

新技术商业化过程中的不确定性、学习与投资决策

邢小强1, 仝允桓2   

  1. 1. 对外经济贸易大学国际商学院, 北京 100029;
    2. 清华大学经济管理学院, 北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-07 修回日期:2010-09-12 出版日期:2010-10-30 发布日期:2010-10-30
  • 作者简介:邢小强(1978- ),男(汉族),山东东明人,对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,讲师,研究方向:创新与创业管理.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(7080201371072013)

Study on the Uncertainties, Learning and Investment Decision in the Process of New Technology Commercialization

XING Xiao-qiang1, TONG Yun-huan2   

  1. 1. School of International Business, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. School of Economics and Managemout, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2010-01-07 Revised:2010-09-12 Online:2010-10-30 Published:2010-10-30

PDF (PC)

961

被引次数

4

摘要： 本文从学习视角分析新技术商业化投资过程中面临的三种不同类型不确定性及其解决方式,阐述各类不确定性及分布影响新技术商业化投资决策背后的内在机制与路径.在此基础上运用实物期权方法构建新技术商业化投资评估与决策模型并导出最优投资规则,进而利用数值模拟进行比较静态分析,详细讨论各种参数变化对新技术商业化投资价值与投资门槛的影响,阐述结果的经济与管理涵义.

关键词: 新技术商业化, 不确定性, 学习, 实物期权

Abstract: Taking into consideration of three different types of uncertainty embedded in new technology commercialization project,the paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of uncertainties on the optimal investment decision from the perspective of reducing or resolving uncertainties by learning.The paper adopts the real options approach and builds the valuation and decision models on the new technology commercialization sequential investment in which the optimal investment rule is also derived.And then,by using the comparative static analysis based on numerical simulation,the paper analyzes how the changes of different parameter values affect the value and investment threshold of new technology commercialization project,with the economic and manag erial implication discussed.

Key words: new technology commercialization, uncertainty, learning, real option

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