考虑极端天气的电力供应链可再生能源维护策略研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022-2669

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对极端天气下可再生能源维护的问题，本文构建了发电商维护可再生能源与售电商维护可再生能源的模型，并识别了可再生能源维护的边界。通过逆向归纳法进行求解，得到如下主要结论：（1）当极端天气发生概率或可再生能源维护成本系数增加时，可再生能源电力的需求量会随之减少。（2）当极端天气发生的概率较小时，售电商维护模式下的可再生能源电力生产量更多；而当极端天气发生的概率较大时，发电商维护时会导致更多的可再生能源电力产量。（3）对于发电商的均衡利润水平，当消费者偏好系数较低、极端天气发生概率较高时，发电商将在发电商维护模式下实现更高的利润；而当消费者偏好系数增大或者极端天气发生概率降低时，售电商维护模式将更有助于使发电商提高利润水平。相比之下，售电商则总能在售电商维护模式下使自己获得更高的利润。

关键词: 极端天气, 电力供应链, 可再生能源, 博弈论

Abstract:

Aiming at the influence of extreme weather on renewable energy maintenance， a two-level electricity supply chain composed of an electricity generator and an electricity retailer is constructed. Maintaining renewable energy by electricity generator will optimize the energy structure； Maintaining renewable energy by electricity retailer will increase electricity demand. The two models are compared， which are renewable energy maintenance by electricity generator and electricity retailer， and the boundaries of renewable energy maintenance are identified. The equilibrium model is solved by backward induction and the following conclusions are drawn. （1） With the increase in the maintenance cost coefficient of renewable energy or the probability of extreme weather， the demand for renewable energy decreases. （2） When the probability of extreme weather is small， electricity retailer is more motivated to maintain more renewable energy， while when the probability of extreme weather is large， electricity generator is more motivated to maintain more renewable energy. The main research contributions are as follows （1） Extreme weather is introduced into the electricity supply chain， based on the situation where there are electricity generator maintaining renewable energy and electricity retailer maintaining renewable energy in reality. It is identified that the boundaries of renewable energy maintenance will improve the efficiency of the power supply chain. （2） Few scholars have studied the issue of who will maintain renewable energy. Chen et al. （2020） studied the investment of upstream and downstream electricity supply chain investment of renewable energy. It is found that the probability of extreme weather occurring affects the selection strategy of electricity supply chain， which further enriches existing research on the electricity market.

Key words: extreme weather, electricity supply chain, renewable energy, game

中图分类号:

F224.32

陈威, 田永乐, 白春光, 马永开. 考虑极端天气的电力供应链可再生能源维护策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2025, 33(9): 359-368.

Wei Chen, Yongle Tian, Chunguang Bai, Yongkai Ma. Renewable Energy Maintenance Strategies for Power Supply Chain Considering Extreme Weather[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(9): 359-368.

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