关键词: 供应链协调, 突发事件, 随机需求扰动, 成本扰动, 期权契约

Abstract: In recent years, emergency events such as nature disaster, terror attack etc. occur frequently, which affect the normal operation of enterprises and supply chain tremendously. Thus, this question leads to a wide attention about how to coordinate the supply chain to response to disruptions. On the other hand, the option contracts have a wide application in the supply chain coordination because of their good flexibility, but in previous studies,only few of them use the option contract to coordinate the supply chain to response to disruptions and verify its validity, and this is just the field that will be explored in this paper. In this paper, we considering a two-stage supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer, while the disruptions cause the stochastic market demand distribution function and the manufacturer's production cost fluctuated simultaneously, how to coordinate the supply chain to response to the disruption by using the option contract is discussed in this paper. A supply chain coordination model is set up based on option contract firstly. As the disruption may affect the supply chain production plan and furthermore it will cause the manufacturer to adjust the production quantity, the production quantity adjustment need to throw in deviation cost. So in the emergency environment, a supply chain model iset up based on a option contract by drawing (leading) into deviation cost. In addition, the model is analyzed thoroughly. As for the thinking of the question resolvent, firstly the coordination mechanism with the option contract of supply chain in steady environment is studied in this paper. Then, the option contract coordination strategy is researched in the light of the supply chain in the emergency environment. The results show that the supply chain can be coordinated by adjusting the order quantity when stochastic market demand distribution function and production cost fluctuated simultaneously. Furthermore, it is found that only the adjusted option contract can coordinate the supply chain while the origin option contract can't. Thereby it is verified that it is effective and essential to coordinate the supply chain by adjusting the option contract while disruptions occur. Finally, the model in this paper is verified by numerical experiments. In the part of data emulation and analysis, a living example is designed according to the feature of the short life cycle two-stage supply chain. Furthermore, the numeral example combining with four conditions produced is analyzed by stochastic market demand distribution function and production cost fluctuation simultaneously. The numeral example shows that the supply chain emergency coordination model is correct. In brief, this study offers a fundamental train of thought and a frame for coordinating the supply chain to response to disruptions to the other related studies. Moreover, it can be used as reference to the other related studies about how to lead the option contract into coordinating the supply chain to response to disruptions.

Key words: supply chain coordination, disruption, stochastic demand disruption, cost disruption, option contract