基于投入产出系数矩阵的周期增长模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在Goodwin和Brody周期增长理论的基础上,本文构造了基于投入产出系数矩阵的开放经济非线性经济周期增长模型,并在简化情况下,利用42部门投入产出表的基础数据,对中国经济增长的周期谱进行了分析。结果表明,模型对中国经济周期的结论是适当的和稳健的。在短周期谱中,中国经济1978年以来主要表现出6年左右的周期,且数据表明,主要周期向10年左右加长。

关键词: 周期增长模型, Goodwin模型, 周期谱, 投入产出

Abstract: On the basis of cyclic growth theory of Richard Goodwin and Andrew Brody, this paper constructs a nonlinear cyclic growth model of an open economy with an input-output coefficient matrix. The periodic frequency spectrums of Chinese economic growth are calculated with a simplified form of that model based on the 42 sector input-output tables of China. The results show that the model is appropriate and robust to China economy’s cycles. The data unveils that Chinese economy performs cyclic motions mainly in about 6 year wave length since 1978 and is extending to about 10 years.

Key words: cyclic growth model, Goodwin model, frequency spectrum, input-output

中图分类号:

F037.1

刘新建, 陆敬辉. 基于投入产出系数矩阵的周期增长模型 [J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (2): 57-61.

LIU Xin-jian, LU Jing-hui. A Cyclic Growth Model Based on Input-Output Coefficient Matrix[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (2): 57-61.

参考文献

[1] 刘恒. 改革开放30年中国经济周期形成机理比较分析[J]. 宏观经济研究, 2008, (11):19-24.
[2] Samuelson,P. A.. Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1939, 21(2): 75-78.
[3] Hicks, J.R.. A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle[M]. Oxford University Press, 1979.
[4] Goodwin, R. M.. The nonlinear accelerator and the persistence of business cycles[J]. Econometrica, 1951, 19(1): 1-17.
[5] Goodwin, R.. Static and Dynamic Linear General Equilibrium Models[M]. The Netherlands Economic Institute. Input Output Relations, 1953.
[6] Goodwin, R.. A Growth Cycle, in Feinstein,C. H.(eds),Socialism, Capitalism and Growth[M].Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1967.
[7] Samuelson, P. A.. Generalized Predator-Prey Oscillations in Ecological and Economic Equilibrium. in Merton R C (ed),The Collected Scientific Papers of Samuelson P A,Cambridge: IT Press,1972.
[8] Pohjola, M. J.. Stable and chaotic growth: the dynamics of a discrete version of goodwin’s growth cycle model [J]. Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie,1981,(41):27-38.
[9] Harvie, D.. Test goodwin: Growth cycles in ten OECD countries[J]. Journal of Economics,2004,24(3):349-376.
[10] Veneziani, R.. Structural stability and goodwin's a growth cycle[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2006, 17(4):437-451.
[11] Rodousakis, N.. Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from The Input-Output Table of The Greek Economy for The Year 1988.MPRA Paper, No. 24171, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24171,2011,07.30.
[12] 朱洪亮. 具有时滞的Goodwin增长周期模型[J]. 经济数学, 2002, 19(4):63-67.
[13] 童光荣. 由Goodwin模型混沌分析看经济增长与收入分配的关系[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2003, (8): 73-77.
[14] 马元, 柳欣:一个古典经济周期波动模型——对Goodwin古典周期模型的重构[J]. 当代经济科学, 2010, 32(5):50-56.
[15] (匈)布劳迪·安德拉斯著,刘新建译.近均衡——周期增长理论研究[M]. 北京:知识产权出版社, 2009.
[16] Ten Raa, T.. Book Review: Near Equilibrium-A Research Report on Cyclic Growth [J]. Economic Systems Research, 2007, 19(1):111-113.
[17] 曾五一, 张立. 中国经济周期条件波动性特征的统计分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2010, 25(3): 27-32.
[18] 国家统计局国民经济核算司. 中国投入产出表2002[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2006.
[19] 国家统计局国民经济核算司. 中国投入产出表2007[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2009.