基于ITIM模型的政治争端事件对产业经济系统的影响评估

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.02.004

中国管理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 27-37.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.02.004

基于ITIM模型的政治争端事件对产业经济系统的影响评估

吴先华^1,2, 朱薇薇³, 杨灵娟², 王莹莹²

1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044;
2. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院, 江苏南京 210044;
3. 共青团南京市委员会, 江苏南京 210019

收稿日期:2014-05-05 修回日期:2015-01-10 出版日期:2016-02-20 发布日期:2016-02-25
通讯作者: 吴先华 E-mail:wxhua_77@126.com
作者简介:吴先华(1977-),男(汉族),湖北荆州人,南京信息工程大学博士,教授,博导,研究方向:灾害经济损失评估、产业系统分析,E-mail:wxhua_77@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373131,91546117);国家软科学研究计划(2011GXQ4B025);教育部留学归国人员科研启动项目(郭际);江苏高校优势学科建设工程和江苏品牌专业资助项目

Impact of Political Dispute on Industrial Economic System Based on An International Trade Inoperability Input-Output Model

WU Xian-hua^1,2, ZHU Wei-wei³, YANG Ling-juan², WANG Ying-ying²

1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. Nanjing Municipal Committee of the Communist Youth League, Nanjing 210019, China

Received:2014-05-05 Revised:2015-01-10 Online:2016-02-20 Published:2016-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文在考虑事件恢复期的情景下,扩展了Jung^[7]的针对进出口国际贸易的非正常投入产出模型。将2012年中日"钓鱼岛事件"视为一类政治争端事件,在几个假设前提下,评估该事件给中国的产业经济系统带来的间接经济损失,并筛选出对该事件较为敏感的产业。结果表明:"钓鱼岛事件"严重影响了中日贸易,2012年中日进出口贸易总额同比减少134.3716亿美元,考虑到产业经济系统内部的技术经济关联性,估算出"钓鱼岛事件"带来的静态间接经济损失区间为;然后假设"钓鱼岛事件"在1年、2年、3年、5年、10年和15年内得以解决,分别计算了该事件带来的间接经济损失区间;筛选出了"钓鱼岛事件"的高敏感行业:通用、专用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业和金属制品业等。最后提出了相应的政策建议。本文的研究方法可为类似事件的损失评估提供借鉴,研究结果可为政府、行业管理部门和相关企业提供参考。

关键词: 政治争端, 产业经济系统, 非正常投入产出模型, 间接经济损失, 钓鱼岛事件

Abstract: While political disputes occur frequently and widely among many countries, their impacts on domestic industrial economic system are unclear and less systematically investigated. Based on Miller and Blair,Jung^[7] static international trade inoperability input-output model(SITIM) is extended into dynamic international trade inoperability input-output model(DITIM). Considering the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute as a political dispute, under several premises assumptions, the indirect economic loss is estimated and Chinese industries that are sensitive to the dispute are screened out. Results show that the static total indirect economic loss of China's gross trade lies between RMB365.3764 billion and RMB811.4575 billion. The dynamic total indirect economic losses when the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute is solved in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years and 15 years are also calculated. Industries that are sensitive to the dispute include general special equipment manufacturing, electrical equipment and machinery, chemical, metal smelting and rolling processing, and fabricated metal product. The empirical findings suggest that China establish an early-warning mechanism and trade assistance system, so key industries that were damaged in protecting the fundamental national interests could be properly compensated.

Key words: political dispute, industrial economic system, inoperability input-output model, indirect economic loss evaluation, Diaoyu islands dispute

中图分类号:

F276.7

吴先华, 朱薇薇, 杨灵娟, 王莹莹. 基于ITIM模型的政治争端事件对产业经济系统的影响评估[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(2): 27-37.

WU Xian-hua, ZHU Wei-wei, YANG Ling-juan, WANG Ying-ying. Impact of Political Dispute on Industrial Economic System Based on An International Trade Inoperability Input-Output Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(2): 27-37.

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基于ITIM模型的政治争端事件对产业经济系统的影响评估

Impact of Political Dispute on Industrial Economic System Based on An International Trade Inoperability Input-Output Model

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