基于I-O与SVAR模型的制造业完全能耗强度影响因素研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 改革开放以来，制造业完全能耗强度尽管总体呈下降趋势，但与发达国家相比，仍处于高位。本文考虑了制造业隐含能源消耗，基于投入产出法构建了制造业完全能耗强度测度公式，并基于WSR方法论构建了制造业完全能耗强度影响因素体系，运用SVAR模型探究1980-2016年各因素对制造业完全能耗强度的影响规律。结果表明，在短期内，企业规模、产业结构、能源价格、技术进步、FDI等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。企业平均规模与重工业占比、技术进步率上升，制造业完全能耗强度下降；而能源价格、FDI上升，制造业完全能耗强度上升。中长期内，企业规模、产权结构、能源价格、产业结构、技术进步等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。能源价格、国有企业占比、技术进步率上升，制造业完全能耗强度先降后升；企业平均规模、重工业占比上升，制造业完全能耗强度先升后降。适度扩大企业规模，合理调控能源价格，推进产权结构多元化等对降低制造业完全能耗强度贡献相对突出。

关键词: 制造业, 完全能耗强度, SVAR模型, 物理-事理-人理, 投入产出分析

Abstract: Since China's reform and opening-up, although the complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry has showed a trend of decline overly, it remains high compared with developed countries. Considering the two factors of economic efficiency and energy utilization, how to further reduce the complete energy consumption of manufacturing industry has become a hot issue in academic circles. It is also an important content to measure the effect of energy saving and emission reduction in manufacturing industry. In this paper, embodied energy of manufacturing industry is taken into account and the formula of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is constructed based on direct and complete consumption coefficients of input-output model. Based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli system methodology, the factors system of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, which contains technology progress, FDI, enterprise scale, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, etc is built. Based on time series data from 1980 to 2016, the SVAR model is used to explore the influence law of various factors on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. All time series that has been counted in currency are deflated into the price of 1980. Impulse response results show that in the short term, enterprise scale, industrial structure, energy price, technology progress, FDI, etc., have a relatively great influence on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. With the increase of enterprise average scale, proportion of heavy industry and technological progress rate, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry starts to reduce; with the increase of energy price and FDI, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry starts to rise. In the medium-long term, enterprise scale, property right structure, energy price, industrial structure, technology progress, etc., have a relatively large influence on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. With the increase of the energy price, the proportion of state-owned enterprises, and technological progress rate, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry goes down and then goes up; with the increase of enterprise average scale and the proportion of heavy industry, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry goes up and then goes down. Variance decomposition results show that enterprise scale, energy price, property right structure, industrial structure and technological progress have great contributions on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. In order to reduce complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, it is relatively outstanding to expand enterprise scale moderately, regulate energy price reasonably, promote diversification of property right structure, etc.. The research of this paper fills the insufficiency of the research field, which is about the influence law of various factors on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, and extends the research perspectives of energy intensity from the perspective of embodied energy of manufacturing industry. The research results have a significant reference value to the state for making energy saving and emission reduction policies of manufacturing industry and the further achievements in reducing complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry.

Key words: manufacturing industry, complete energy intensity, SVAR model, Wuli-Shili-Renli, input-output analysis

中图分类号:

F206

李根, 刘家国, 王晓敏. 基于I-O与SVAR模型的制造业完全能耗强度影响因素研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(12): 99-112.

LI Gen, LIU Jia-guo, WANG Xiao-min. Research on Influencing Factors of Complete Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industry based on Input-Output Methodology and SVAR Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(12): 99-112.

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