关键词: 时间-概率权衡, 风险-价值权衡, 内在折扣率, 跨期相对风险-价值模型

Abstract: An Inter-Temporal Relative Risk-Value(IRRV) model,integrating time-probability tradeoff and risk-value tradeoff,is proposed. For complex risky events with nonnegative outcomes,an explicit formula of time-probability tradeoff is derived based on some preference axioms,which formalizes the "psychological distance"-based intuition that the time is intrinsically uncertain and the inter-temporal effect on utility is captured by an intrinsic time discount rate. This intrinsic discount rate,serving as a core factor of time-probability tradeoff,is mainly determined by decision-make's time preference and probably depends on the magnitude of outcomes. Based on the time-probability tradeoff,this paper extends the static relative risk-value model to a dynamic IRRV model.This model synthesizes three fundamental decision-making dimensions,namely value,time and probability under a common state space and provides a normative framework for dynamic risk evaluation and investment decision.

Key words: time-probability tradeoff, risk-value tradeoff, intrinsic discount rate, inter-temporal relative risk-value model