基于结构协同增益模型的重大工程传染性风险研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.009

中国管理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (12): 90-98.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.009

基于结构协同增益模型的重大工程传染性风险研究

赵娜^1,3, 郑大昭², 孙妮娜³

1. 哈尔滨商业大学金融学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150001;
2. 香港理工大学商学院, 香港 999077;
3. 哈尔滨工业大学管理学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2017-07-18 修回日期:2017-12-12 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2019-02-25
通讯作者: 赵娜(1982-),女(满族),黑龙江哈尔滨人,哈尔滨工业大学博士后,哈尔滨商业大学金融学院,研究方向:工程风险管理,E-mail:zhaona@hit.edu.cn. E-mail:zhaona@hit.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目（71390522）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（71601058）；黑龙江省自然科学基金（QC2017084）；黑龙江省博士后科研启动金项目

Research on Infectious Risk of Major Projects Based onStructural Cooperative Gain Model

ZHAO Na^1,3, CHENG T. C. E.², SUN Ni-na³

1. School of Finance, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150001, China;
2. Faculty of Business, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;
3. School of Economic and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Received:2017-07-18 Revised:2017-12-12 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2019-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以动力系统理论和振荡理论为基础，针对重大工程传染性风险的特征，基于重大工程主体间的结构协同关系，构建最大限度抑制重大工程传染性风险，同时保证重大工程正常有序施工的结构协同增益模型。运用数理分析方法，以重大工程传染性风险形成的核心主导因素"人"的主体行为为切入点，对重大工程传染性风险结构协同过程进行系统分析。研究结果表明：在常数率遏止和振荡遏止两种协同手段下，结构协同增益模型均存在临界值，并受到传染者群体密度、结构比例以及协同周期的影响，当振荡协同周期大于最短振荡周期时，振荡遏止比常数率遏止适合；反之，常数率遏止比振荡遏止更适合。所建模型及分析结论在一定程度上阐述了影响重大工程传染性风险协同管理的关键机理，解释了重大工程传染性风险结构性规律，研究结果不仅对相关理论进行了验证和补充，同时也为协同管理实践提供有益参考，以帮助更加有效协同管理重大工程传染性风险。

关键词: 重大工程, 协同管理, 传染性风险

Abstract: Based on the synergic relationship assumption of structure among main bodies of the critical project, by taking into consideration root causing the infectious risk of the critical project and the infectious characteristics of the critical project, a structural synergistic gain model is constructed which synergizes the infectious risk of the critical project at the high limit and ensures normal and ordered construction. Through utilizing a mathematical analysis method and taking the subject behavior of the core leading factor "person" formed by the infectious risk of the critical project as the point cut, a mathematical comparative analysis is carried out based on the structural synergistic gain model of the infectious risk. The research result shows:(1) when the ratio of infectors capable of being synergized is less than the critical value, it shall hold back the infectious risk strategy by a large-scale constant-rate so as to prevent from damaging the structural balance between the infector and the other person and thus cause serious impact on the synergizer and other person unrelated or even cause local or large-area shut-down of the critical project. (2) When the oscillation period of the synergism infector is more than the critical value, it shall be not too frequent for implementing the oscillation synergism infectors so as to prevent a structural disequilibrium. At that time, the moderate oscillation synergism management can not only make the personnel structure free from collapse caused by the infectious risk but also digest and reduce the infector density in pro rata by synergism. (3) Through a comparative analysis, it is found that when the oscillation period is more than the shortest one, the oscillation synergism is better than the constant-rate hold-back; otherwise, the constant-rate hold-back is better than the oscillation synergism. Moreover, it is found that under two synergism means of constant-rate hold-back and the oscillation synergism, the critical value of the structural proportion unbalancing can be avoided between the infector and the synergizer so as to promote structural synergistic gain of the critical project. Therefore, the research not only discloses relevant mechanism of infectious risk synergism of the critical project but also en riches the coordinative management research theory. The structural synergistic gain model and its index provides references for selecting the coordinative management of the infectious risk of the critical project. It specifically inhibits and prevents the occurrence of large-scale infectious risk, protects personnel structure proportion of the critical project, reaches the effect of structural synergistic gain, protects national economic "stabilizer" and effectively promotes sound and stable development of the critical project.

Key words: major project, collaborative management, infectious risk

中图分类号:

C931.3

赵娜, 郑大昭, 孙妮娜. 基于结构协同增益模型的重大工程传染性风险研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(12): 90-98.

ZHAO Na, CHENG T. C. E., SUN Ni-na. Research on Infectious Risk of Major Projects Based onStructural Cooperative Gain Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(12): 90-98.

参考文献

[1] 曾晖, 成虎. 重大工程项目全流程管理体系的构建[J]. 管理世界, 2014,(3):184-185.

[2] 盛昭瀚.关于我国重大工程管理若干问题研究[C]//国家自然科学基金委员会第79期双清论坛,江苏镇江,2012年9月6日-7日.

[3] 时茜茜, 朱建波, 盛昭瀚. 重大工程供应链协同合作利益分配研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017,25(5):42-51.

[4] Zhao Na, An Shi. Collaborative management of complex major construction projects:Anylogic-based simulation modelling[J]. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2016,2016:1-8.

[5] Osipova E, Eriksson P E, Balancing control and flexibility in joint risk management:Lessons learned from two construction projects[J].International Journal of Project Management, 2013, 31(3):391-399.

[6] Li T H Y, Ng S T, Skitmore M. Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects:A decision rule approach[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management,2016, 142(3):1-50.

[7] Guo Feng, Yan C R, Wilkinson S, et al. Effects of project governance structures on the management of risks in major infrastructure projects:A comparative analysis[J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2014, 32(5):815-826.

[8] Tsamboulas D, Verma A, Moraiti P. Transport infrastructure provision and operations:Why should governments choose private-public partnership?[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2013, 38(1):122-127.

[9] Turner J R, Müller R. Communication and cooperation on projects between the project owner as principal and the project manager as agent[J]. European Management Journal, 2004, 22(3):327-336.

[10] Guo H L, Li Heng, Li V. VP-based safety management in large-scale construction projects:A conceptual framework[J]. Automation in Construction, 2013, 34(2):16-24.

[11] Harty C. Implementing innovation in construction:contexts, relative boundedness and actor-network theory[J]. Construction Management & Economics, 2008, 26(10):1029-1041.

[12] Murphy M, Heaney G, Perera S. A methodology for evaluating construction innovation constraints through project stakeholder competencies and FMEA[J]. Construction Innovation, 2016, 11(4):416-440.

[13] Thornton H. An enquiry into the nature and effects of the paper credit of Great Britain[M]. London:George Allen & Unwin, 1802.

[14] Sheldon, Maurer M. Interbank lending and systemic risk:An empirical analysis for Switzerland[J]. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 1998, 134:685-704.

[15] 马君潞, 范小云, 曹元涛. 中国银行间市场双边传染的风险估测及其系统性特征分析[J]. 经济研究, 2007, 1:68-78.

[16] Aldasoro I, Gatti D D, Faia E. Bank networks:Contagion, systemic risk and prudential policy[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2014,142:164-188.

[17] Horst U. Stochastic cascades, credit contagion,and large portfolio losses[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2007, 63(1):25-54.

[18] Hasman A, Samartin M. Information acquisition and financial contagion[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2008, 32(10):2136-2147.

[19] Wan Wei, Study of competition and cooperation in engineering project risk control and management[C]//Proceedings of the seventh international conference on dynamic systems and applications & fifth international conference on neural, Parallel, and Scientific Computations. May 27-30,2015,Atlanta, GA, USA.

[20] Almeida N M, Sousa V, Dias L A, et al. Engineering risk management in performance-based building environments[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering & Management, 2015, 21(2):218-230.

[21] Mitropoulos P, Memarian B. Team processes and safety of workers:Cognitive, affective, and behavioral processes of construction crews[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 2012, 138(10):1181-1191.

[22] OkimotoT. New evidence of asymmetric dependence structures in international equity markets[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2008, 43(3):787-816.

[23] Katalin G,Meggyes T,Fenyvesi E. Engineering tools for environmental risk management[M]. Florida, USA:CRC Press,2015.

[24] Konior J. Enterprise's risk assessment of complex construction projects[J]. Archives of Civil Engineering,2015, 61(3):63-74.

[25] Cheng T C E, Ding Qing. Scheduling start time dependent tasks with deadlines and identical initial processing times on a single machine[J]. Computers & Operations Research, 2003, 30(1):51-62.

[26] 叶五一, 缪柏其. 基于Copula变点检测的美国次级债金融危机传染分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2009, 17(3):1-7.

[27] Bresnen M, Marshall N. Building partnerships:case studies of clientcontractor collaboration in the UK construction industry[J]. Construction Management & Economics, 2000, 25(18):819-832.

[28] Lindebaum D, Jordan P J. Positive emotions, negative emotions, or utility of discrete emotions?[J]. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 2012, 33(7):1027-1030.

[29] Hofbauer F. Examples for the nonuniqueness of the equilibrium state[J]. Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 1977, 228:223-241.

[30] Wadsworth J L. Exploiting structure of maximum likelihood estimators for extreme value threshold selection[J]. Technometrics, 2016, 58(1):116-126.

基于结构协同增益模型的重大工程传染性风险研究

Research on Infectious Risk of Major Projects Based onStructural Cooperative Gain Model

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 10

[1]	薛小龙, 牛向飞. 基于协调发展度的重大工程团队免疫系统健康评价研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(8): 186-196.
[2]	时茜茜, 朱建波, 盛昭瀚. 重大工程供应链协同合作利益分配研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(5): 42-51.